Issued 2026-09-16 at $5.01 · now $5.01 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GEOS has typically landed between $3.78 and $6.72 — a range of −24.6% to +34.2% from the issuance price $5.01.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,002 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($5.01) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where GEOS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $5.01 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $5.01 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $4.97 (-0.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $4.37–$5.58
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $3.78–$6.72
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-20 | −65.9% | −66.4% | +0.9% |
| 2020-02-13 | −65.8% | −65.8% | +2.6% |
| 2020-02-21 | −65.3% | −66.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-05-21 | +180.4% | −6.2% | +180.4% |
| 2025-05-27 | +170.2% | −4.1% | +186.6% |
| 2025-05-23 | +170.0% | −4.4% | +185.6% |
5,002 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
24 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-09 | DAVIS THOMAS L | director | Award / grant | 3,500 | 65,454 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Miles Richard F | director | Award / grant | 3,500 | 48,100 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Giesinger Edgar R. JR. | director | Award / grant | 3,500 | 43,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-05 | Kelley Richard James | officer | Withheld for tax | 275 | 41,977 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-05 | Curda Robert L. | officer | Withheld for tax | 165 | 61,112 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-02 | Bushey Ronald Todd | officer | Withheld for tax | 275 | 12,127 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-25 | Bushey Ronald Todd | officer | Award / grant | 4,000 | 7,402 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-25 | Kelley Richard James | officer | Award / grant | 8,000 | 42,252 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-25 | Curda Robert L. | officer | Award / grant | 4,000 | 61,277 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-20 | Kelley Richard James | officer | Withheld for tax | 298 | 34,252 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-20 | Bushey Ronald Todd | officer | Award / grant | 3,600 | 3,600 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-20 | Bushey Ronald Todd | officer | Withheld for tax | 198 | 3,402 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-20 | Curda Robert L. | officer | Award / grant | 3,600 | 57,475 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-20 | Curda Robert L. | officer | Withheld for tax | 198 | 57,277 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-20 | Kelley Richard James | officer | Award / grant | 4,500 | 34,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-09 | Wheeler Walter R. | director | Award / grant | 3,500 | 172,006 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-09 | JUMPER STEPHEN C | director | Award / grant | 3,500 | 14,900 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-09 | Ashworth Margaret | director | Award / grant | 3,500 | 34,400 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-06 | Miles Richard F | director | Award / grant | 7,200 | 44,600 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-06 | Wheeler Walter R. | director | Award / grant | 7,200 | 168,506 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-06 | Giesinger Edgar R. JR. | director | Award / grant | 7,200 | 39,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-06 | DAVIS THOMAS L | director | Award / grant | 7,200 | 61,954 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-06 | Ashworth Margaret | director | Award / grant | 7,200 | 30,900 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-06 | JUMPER STEPHEN C | director | Award / grant | 7,200 | 11,400 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.