GEO · TickerCove

GEOThe GEO Group, Inc.Industrials · Security & Protection Servicesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $31.43 · now $31.43 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GEO has typically landed between $25.72 and $39.41 — a range of −18.2% to +25.4% from the issuance price $31.43.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($31.43) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$31.43 · 93% of range

$13.26 low$32.77 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+3.1%

typical move · IQR 17.4%

−18.2%worst (p90)+25.4%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where GEO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $31.43 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $31.43 (+0.0%)
typical $32.4 (+3.1%)
middle 50% $29.67–$35.14
90% range $25.72–$39.41

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2008-09-16	−47.1%	−47.1%	+0.0%
2016-08-01	−43.3%	−44.0%	+0.0%
2016-07-20	−42.6%	−42.6%	+2.5%
3 best
2024-11-04	+105.9%	+0.0%	+105.9%
2024-11-05	+92.5%	+0.0%	+93.0%
2024-10-11	+90.2%	+0.0%	+90.2%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

60%

+1.5%

n=20

Feb

50%

−1.7%

n=20

Mar

70%

+2.9%

n=20

Apr

65%

+3.0%

n=20

May

40%

+0.2%

n=20

Jun

40%

+2.9%

n=20

Jul

55%

−0.1%

n=20

Aug

50%

−1.6%

n=20

Sep

45%

+0.9%

n=20

Oct

65%

+2.6%

n=20

Nov

55%

+7.5%

n=20

Dec

45%

+0.8%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-11	Albence Matthew	officer	Sale	11,797 @ $31.45	$371K	−11.9% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	87,602	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-21	Brack Ronald A.	officer	Sale	7,000 @ $32.00	$224K	−8.9% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	71,614	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-20	Albence Matthew	officer	Sale	10,000 @ $31.69	$317K	−9.1% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	99,399	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-13	Koren Lindsay L.	director	Sale	3,500 @ $31.30	$110K	−19.3% of holding	+3.8%	not yet — horizon still open	14,675	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-04	KERNAN SCOTT MICHAEL	director	Sale	6,633 @ $15.24	$101K	−19.7% of holding	+26.4%	+90.8%	27,062	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-10	ZOLEY GEORGE C	director	Sale	31,176 @ $21.52	$671K	−0.8% of holding	−17.5%	−36.5%	3,850,904	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-09	ZOLEY GEORGE C	director	Sale	31,176 @ $20.52	$640K	−0.8% of holding	−17.7%	−39.2%	3,882,080	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-08	ZOLEY GEORGE C	director	Sale	31,176 @ $20.51	$639K	−0.8% of holding	−12.3%	−36.9%	3,913,256	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-05	ZOLEY GEORGE C	director	Sale	29,876 @ $21.00	$627K	−0.8% of holding	−9.9%	−38.7%	3,945,732	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-04	ZOLEY GEORGE C	director	Sale	31,177 @ $21.05	$656K	−0.8% of holding	−7.8%	−36.3%	3,975,608	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-29	ZOLEY GEORGE C	director	Sale	10,490 @ $20.56	$216K	−100.0% of holding	−4.8%	−33.5%	0	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-29	ZOLEY GEORGE C	director	Sale	10,480 @ $20.56	$215K	−100.0% of holding	−4.8%	−33.5%	0	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-28	ZOLEY GEORGE C	director	Sale	10,490 @ $20.81	$218K	−50.0% of holding	−0.7%	−32.2%	10,490	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-08-28	ZOLEY GEORGE C	director	Sale	10,480 @ $20.81	$218K	−50.0% of holding	−0.7%	−32.2%	10,480	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-08-27	ZOLEY GEORGE C	director	Sale	10,490 @ $20.69	$217K	−33.3% of holding	−2.2%	−34.4%	20,980	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-27	ZOLEY GEORGE C	director	Sale	10,480 @ $20.69	$217K	−33.3% of holding	−2.2%	−34.4%	20,960	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-26	ZOLEY GEORGE C	director	Sale	10,490 @ $20.90	$219K	−25.0% of holding	−1.3%	−37.3%	31,470	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-26	ZOLEY GEORGE C	director	Sale	10,480 @ $20.90	$219K	−25.0% of holding	−1.3%	−37.3%	31,440	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-25	ZOLEY GEORGE C	director	Sale	10,490 @ $21.68	$227K	−20.0% of holding	−1.0%	−38.5%	41,960	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-25	ZOLEY GEORGE C	director	Sale	10,480 @ $21.62	$227K	−20.0% of holding	−1.0%	−38.5%	41,920	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-22	ZOLEY GEORGE C	director	Sale	26,068 @ $21.37	$557K	−0.6% of holding	−3.7%	−42.7%	4,006,785	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-21	ZOLEY GEORGE C	director	Sale	25,000 @ $21.38	$535K	−0.6% of holding	−3.9%	−45.1%	4,032,853	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-20	ZOLEY GEORGE C	director	Sale	25,000 @ $21.37	$534K	−0.6% of holding	−4.5%	−48.0%	4,057,853	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-19	ZOLEY GEORGE C	director	Sale	25,000 @ $21.66	$542K	−0.6% of holding	−2.3%	−37.1%	4,082,853	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-18	ZOLEY GEORGE C	director	Sale	25,000 @ $21.04	$526K	−0.6% of holding	+0.9%	−37.3%	4,107,853	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-27	March Shayn P.	officer	Sale	7,500 @ $30.00	$225K	−10.0% of holding	+2.6%	−48.6%	67,469	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-13	Mannarino Nicole	officer	Sale	646 @ $25.43	$16K	−100.0% of holding	+16.4%	−33.6%	0	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-10	KERNAN SCOTT MICHAEL	director	Sale	5,800 @ $22.68	$132K	−15.2% of holding	+26.2%	−22.6%	32,266	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-09	Brack Ronald A.	officer	Sale	5,000 @ $28.28	$141K	−6.5% of holding	+13.6%	−6.2%	71,978	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

109 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-04	ZOLEY GEORGE C	director	Gift	100,000	3,702,529	Form 4
2026-06-04	ZOLEY GEORGE C	director	Gift	100,000	3,902,529	Form 4
2026-06-04	ZOLEY GEORGE C	director	Gift	100,000	3,802,529	Form 4
2026-04-01	March Shayn P.	officer	Award / grant	6,088	67,604	Form 4
2026-04-01	March Shayn P.	officer	Award / grant	6,087	73,691	Form 4
2026-03-31	Suchinski Mark	officer	Disposition	139,667	0	Form 4
2026-03-06	Albence Matthew	officer	Withheld for tax	22,602	109,399	Form 4
2026-03-06	Long Richard Kent	officer	Withheld for tax	19,428	298,925	Form 4
2026-03-06	Ryan Christopher D.	officer	Withheld for tax	15,449	102,319	Form 4
2026-03-06	Suchinski Mark	officer	Withheld for tax	3,113	5,220	Form 4
2026-03-06	Laird Paul M.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,015	23,961	Form 4
2026-03-06	Ragsdale Daniel H.	officer	Withheld for tax	812	31,564	Form 4
2026-03-06	Houston Donald E.	officer	Withheld for tax	812	7,364	Form 4
2026-03-06	Brewer Jack	director	Award / grant	10,246	34,694	Form 4
2026-03-06	Mannarino Nicole	officer	Award / grant	657	1,521	Form 4
2026-03-06	March Shayn P.	officer	Award / grant	19,566	61,516	Form 4
2026-03-06	Brack Ronald A.	officer	Award / grant	14,515	33,125	Form 4
2026-03-06	Albence Matthew	officer	Award / grant	25,019	132,001	Form 4
2026-03-06	Ryan Christopher D.	officer	Award / grant	18,461	117,768	Form 4
2026-03-06	Koren Lindsay L.	director	Award / grant	10,246	30,353	Form 4
2026-03-06	Wood Julie Myers	director	Award / grant	10,246	37,294	Form 4
2026-03-06	Arduin Donna	director	Award / grant	10,246	14,536	Form 4
2026-03-06	KERNAN SCOTT MICHAEL	director	Award / grant	10,246	37,294	Form 4
2026-03-06	Long Richard Kent	officer	Award / grant	22,518	318,353	Form 4
2026-03-06	Bartzokis Thomas C.	director	Award / grant	10,246	34,694	Form 4
2026-03-05	ZOLEY GEORGE C	director	Withheld for tax	78,700	4,002,529	Form 4
2026-03-05	ZOLEY GEORGE C	director	Award / grant	200,000	4,081,229	Form 4
2026-03-03	ZOLEY GEORGE C	director	Withheld for tax	19,675	3,881,229	Form 4
2026-03-03	Schipma Scott A.	officer	Withheld for tax	777	38,343	Form 4
2026-03-03	March Shayn P.	officer	Withheld for tax	646	76,276	Form 4
2026-03-03	Brack Ronald A.	officer	Withheld for tax	465	95,644	Form 4
2026-03-03	Meehan David O.	officer	Withheld for tax	378	57,947	Form 4
2026-03-03	Mannarino Nicole	officer	Withheld for tax	27	533	Form 4
2026-03-02	Schipma Scott A.	officer	Withheld for tax	3,740	35,930	Form 4
2026-03-02	Brack Ronald A.	officer	Withheld for tax	3,123	94,203	Form 4
2026-03-02	Laird Paul M.	officer	Withheld for tax	2,895	20,810	Form 4
2026-03-02	Ragsdale Daniel H.	officer	Withheld for tax	2,461	29,043	Form 4
2026-03-02	Meehan David O.	officer	Withheld for tax	2,276	56,774	Form 4
2026-03-02	March Shayn P.	officer	Withheld for tax	2,192	74,272	Form 4
2026-03-02	Ryan Christopher D.	officer	Withheld for tax	914	64,552	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

27d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i