Issued 2026-09-16 at $15.68 · now $15.68 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GENB has typically landed between $12.60 and $22.05 — a range of −19.6% to +40.6% from the issuance price $15.68.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
118 overlapping 1 month windows · 2026-02-27 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($15.68) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where GENB has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $15.68 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $15.68 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $16.54 (+5.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $15.17–$17.91
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $12.6–$22.05
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-05-13 | −23.7% | −26.2% | +0.0% |
| 2026-06-29 | −22.6% | −22.6% | +3.0% |
| 2026-06-26 | −20.2% | −20.2% | +5.7% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-07-27 | +49.0% | −4.4% | +49.0% |
| 2026-06-02 | +45.4% | +0.0% | +45.4% |
| 2026-07-24 | +32.2% | −2.4% | +32.2% |
118 overlapping windows · 2026-02-27 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | ARNOLD FRANCES | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $16.00 | $16K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 231,472 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Nally Michael | director | Purchase | 20,000 @ $12.00 | $240K | +3.6% of holding | +22.8% | +28.3% | 572,707 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | AFEYAN NOUBAR | director | Purchase | 1,562,500 @ $16.00 | $25.0M | +11.4% of holding | +7.7% | +13.1% | 15,264,724 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-02 | AFEYAN NOUBAR | director | Purchase | 1,562,500 @ $16.00 | $25.0M | +56.3% of holding | +7.7% | +13.1% | 4,340,252 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-02 | AFEYAN NOUBAR | director | Purchase | 1,562,500 @ $16.00 | $25.0M | ownership Δ n/a | +7.7% | +13.1% | 1,562,500 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-02 | AFEYAN NOUBAR | director | Purchase | 1,562,500 @ $16.00 | $25.0M | +56.3% of holding | +7.7% | +13.1% | 4,340,252 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-02 | AFEYAN NOUBAR | director | Purchase | 1,562,500 @ $16.00 | $25.0M | +11.4% of holding | +7.7% | +13.1% | 15,264,724 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-02 | AFEYAN NOUBAR | director | Purchase | 1,562,500 @ $16.00 | $25.0M | ownership Δ n/a | +7.7% | +13.1% | 1,562,500 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-02 | Mendillo Jane L | director | Purchase | 1,500 @ $16.00 | $24K | ownership Δ n/a | +7.7% | +13.1% | 1,500 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-02 | Silvers Jason | officer | Purchase | 1,000 @ $16.00 | $16K | ownership Δ n/a | +7.7% | +13.1% | 1,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-02 | Silvers Jason | officer | Purchase | 500 @ $16.00 | $8K | ownership Δ n/a | +7.7% | +13.1% | 500 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-02 | Grous Beth | officer | Purchase | 300 @ $16.00 | $5K | ownership Δ n/a | +7.7% | +13.1% | 300 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
124 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-02 | AFEYAN NOUBAR | director | Conversion | 1,265,822 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | AFEYAN NOUBAR | director | Conversion | 2,953,586 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | AFEYAN NOUBAR | director | Conversion | 2,109,704 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | AFEYAN NOUBAR | director | Conversion | 2,531,644 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Nally Michael | director | Conversion | 1,000,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | AFEYAN NOUBAR | director | Conversion | 17,016,215 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | AFEYAN NOUBAR | director | Conversion | 18,483,785 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | AFEYAN NOUBAR | director | Conversion | 1,500,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | AFEYAN NOUBAR | director | Conversion | 843,881 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | AFEYAN NOUBAR | director | Conversion | 1,265,822 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | AFEYAN NOUBAR | director | Conversion | 2,953,586 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | AFEYAN NOUBAR | director | Conversion | 2,109,704 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | AFEYAN NOUBAR | director | Conversion | 2,531,644 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Bancel Stephane | director | Conversion | 1,100,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | AFEYAN NOUBAR | director | Conversion | 18,483,785 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | AFEYAN NOUBAR | director | Conversion | 17,016,215 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | AFEYAN NOUBAR | director | Conversion | 1,500,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | AFEYAN NOUBAR | director | Conversion | 843,881 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | AFEYAN NOUBAR | director | Conversion | 2,777,752 | 2,777,752 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | AFEYAN NOUBAR | director | Conversion | 12,723,940 | 12,723,940 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | AFEYAN NOUBAR | director | Conversion | 13,702,224 | 13,702,224 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | AFEYAN NOUBAR | director | Conversion | 987,491 | 987,491 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | AFEYAN NOUBAR | director | Conversion | 2,777,752 | 2,777,752 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | AFEYAN NOUBAR | director | Conversion | 2,777,752 | 2,777,752 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | AFEYAN NOUBAR | director | Conversion | 12,723,940 | 12,723,940 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | AFEYAN NOUBAR | director | Conversion | 13,702,224 | 13,702,224 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | AFEYAN NOUBAR | director | Conversion | 987,491 | 987,491 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | AFEYAN NOUBAR | director | Conversion | 2,777,752 | 2,777,752 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | AFEYAN NOUBAR | director | Conversion | 2,777,752 | 2,777,752 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | Nally Michael | director | Conversion | 658,327 | 1,316,654 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | AFEYAN NOUBAR | director | Conversion | 12,723,940 | 12,723,940 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | AFEYAN NOUBAR | director | Conversion | 13,702,224 | 13,702,224 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | AFEYAN NOUBAR | director | Conversion | 987,491 | 987,491 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | AFEYAN NOUBAR | director | Conversion | 2,777,752 | 2,777,752 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | AFEYAN NOUBAR | director | Conversion | 2,777,752 | 2,777,752 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | AFEYAN NOUBAR | director | Conversion | 12,723,940 | 12,723,940 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | AFEYAN NOUBAR | director | Conversion | 987,491 | 987,491 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | AFEYAN NOUBAR | director | Conversion | 2,777,752 | 2,777,752 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | AFEYAN NOUBAR | director | Conversion | 2,777,752 | 2,777,752 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-02 | AFEYAN NOUBAR | director | Conversion | 13,702,224 | 13,702,224 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.