Issued 2026-09-25 at $21.62 · now $21.62 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, GEN has typically landed between $18.93 and $24.74 — a range of −12.4% to +14.4% from the issuance price $21.62.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($21.62) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where GEN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $21.62 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $21.62 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $21.76 (+0.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $20.47–$23.05
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $18.93–$24.74
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-10-01 | −35.6% | −35.6% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-11 | −34.4% | −34.4% | +0.0% |
| 2008-09-10 | −32.3% | −32.3% | +1.5% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-04-30 | +44.7% | +0.0% | +44.7% |
| 2026-05-01 | +42.9% | +0.0% | +44.1% |
| 2021-05-06 | +36.6% | +0.0% | +36.9% |
4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$125.75
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$54.04
- Analyst target · range $27.00–$27.00$27.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$21.62
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | KO BRYAN SEUK | officer | Sale | 28,248 @ $30.67 | $866K | −3.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 744,262 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Vlcek Ondrej | director | Sale | 200,000 @ $30.00 | $6.0M | −5.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,332,904 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-25 | Vlcek Ondrej | director | Sale | 152,358 @ $29.00 | $4.4M | −4.1% of holding | −21.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,532,904 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | Vlcek Ondrej | director | Sale | 47,462 @ $29.00 | $1.4M | −1.3% of holding | −6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,685,262 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Vlcek Ondrej | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $28.00 | $2.8M | −2.6% of holding | +6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,732,724 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Witteveen Travis Michael | officer | Sale | 440 @ $28.06 | $12K | −0.1% of holding | +14.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 496,545 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Witteveen Travis Michael | officer | Sale | 30,000 @ $29.42 | $883K | −5.7% of holding | +3.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 496,545 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Vlcek Ondrej | director | Sale | 100,000 @ $24.78 | $2.5M | −2.5% of holding | +2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,832,724 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | Chrystal John C | director | Purchase | 3,000 @ $27.06 | $81K | +10.6% of holding | +2.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 31,419 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-17 | DERSE NATALIE MARIE | director | Sale | 794 @ $23.62 | $19K | −0.2% of holding | −6.6% | +8.8% | 456,678 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Vlcek Ondrej | director | Sale | 113,674 @ $27.12 | $3.1M | −2.8% of holding | −4.2% | −19.2% | 3,932,980 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Chrystal John C | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $27.14 | $136K | +21.4% of holding | +2.1% | −18.1% | 28,419 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | KO BRYAN SEUK | officer | Sale | 41,084 @ $32.00 | $1.3M | −6.5% of holding | −11.0% | −32.4% | 586,462 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Chrystal John C | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $32.10 | $321K | +344.7% of holding | −11.0% | −32.4% | 12,901 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-16 | Denzel Nora | director | Sale | 31,646 @ $28.76 | $910K | −47.6% of holding | +3.2% | −20.3% | 34,860 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-18 | DERSE NATALIE MARIE | director | Sale | 989 @ $27.74 | $27K | −0.3% of holding | +8.3% | +9.7% | 333,668 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-11-26 | KO BRYAN SEUK | officer | Sale | 37,848 @ $30.58 | $1.2M | −7.0% of holding | −9.9% | −6.7% | 504,500 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-11-26 | KO BRYAN SEUK | officer | Sale | 10,442 @ $30.58 | $319K | −1.9% of holding | −9.9% | −6.7% | 542,348 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-08-19 | Pilette Vincent | director | Sale | 178,801 @ $25.54 | $4.6M | −9.4% of holding | +4.0% | −1.7% | 1,719,658 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-05-15 | Feld Peter A | director | Sale | 303,118 @ $24.89 | $7.5M | −100.0% of holding | −4.6% | +9.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-05-15 | Feld Peter A | director | Sale | 39,182 @ $24.89 | $975K | −100.0% of holding | −4.6% | +9.6% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-05-14 | Feld Peter A | director | Sale | 664,150 @ $24.44 | $16.2M | −68.7% of holding | −3.4% | +10.9% | 303,118 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-05-14 | DERSE NATALIE MARIE | director | Sale | 169,535 @ $24.31 | $4.1M | −33.7% of holding | −3.4% | +10.9% | 333,668 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-05-14 | Feld Peter A | director | Sale | 85,850 @ $24.44 | $2.1M | −68.7% of holding | −3.4% | +10.9% | 39,182 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2024-02-16 | DERSE NATALIE MARIE | director | Sale | 1,221 @ $21.32 | $26K | −0.3% of holding | −3.4% | +7.8% | 360,740 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
121 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Vlcek Ondrej | director | Withheld for tax | 2,647 | 3,339,201 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Baudis Pavel | director | Withheld for tax | 2,647 | 39,990 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Vlcek Ondrej | director | Award / grant | 9,072 | 3,341,848 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Smith Sherrese M | director | Award / grant | 1,680 | 84,634 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Gift | 8,822 | 9,072 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Smith Sherrese M | director | Award / grant | 9,072 | 82,954 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Baudis Pavel | director | Award / grant | 9,072 | 42,637 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Denzel Nora | director | Award / grant | 9,072 | 52,754 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Chrystal John C | director | Award / grant | 9,072 | 40,491 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Gift | 8,822 | 78,506 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Barsamian Sue | director | Award / grant | 9,072 | 17,894 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Barsamian Sue | director | Gift | 8,822 | 9,072 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | Barsamian Sue | director | Gift | 8,822 | 99,885 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | HEATH EMILY | director | Award / grant | 9,072 | 76,274 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | BRANDT ERIC | director | Award / grant | 9,072 | 17,894 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Vlcek Ondrej | director | Withheld for tax | 128 | 3,332,776 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | Witteveen Travis Michael | officer | Award / grant | 440 | 496,985 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Vlcek Ondrej | director | Withheld for tax | 128 | 3,932,724 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | Pilette Vincent | director | Award / grant | 498,896 | 1,718,199 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | DERSE NATALIE MARIE | director | Award / grant | 135,118 | 661,591 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-08 | KO BRYAN SEUK | officer | Award / grant | 135,118 | 772,510 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Pilette Vincent | director | Option exercise | 695,051 | 1,548,450 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Pilette Vincent | director | Withheld for tax | 329,147 | 1,219,303 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | DERSE NATALIE MARIE | director | Option exercise | 243,878 | 658,119 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | KO BRYAN SEUK | officer | Option exercise | 182,909 | 736,127 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | DERSE NATALIE MARIE | director | Withheld for tax | 131,646 | 526,473 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | KO BRYAN SEUK | officer | Withheld for tax | 98,735 | 637,392 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Pilette Vincent | director | Option exercise | 695,051 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Pilette Vincent | director | Award / grant | 695,051 | 695,051 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | KO BRYAN SEUK | officer | Option exercise | 182,909 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | KO BRYAN SEUK | officer | Award / grant | 182,909 | 182,909 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | DERSE NATALIE MARIE | director | Option exercise | 243,878 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | DERSE NATALIE MARIE | director | Award / grant | 243,878 | 243,878 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Pilette Vincent | director | Withheld for tax | 118,346 | 853,399 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | DERSE NATALIE MARIE | director | Withheld for tax | 42,437 | 414,241 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | KO BRYAN SEUK | officer | Withheld for tax | 34,149 | 553,218 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-01 | Vlcek Ondrej | director | Withheld for tax | 128 | 3,932,852 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | KO BRYAN SEUK | officer | Award / grant | 905 | 587,367 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | Pilette Vincent | director | Award / grant | 795 | 2,184,124 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-15 | DERSE NATALIE MARIE | director | Award / grant | 794 | 457,472 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-05-08 | 2026-04-14 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-23 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-11-14 | 2025-10-22 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | sale | 2025-10-10 | 2025-09-23 | $1–15K |
| Valerie Hoyle | House | purchase | 2025-09-12 | 2024-10-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-15 | $1–15K |
| Jefferson Shreve | House | sale | 2025-05-08 | 2025-04-07 | $15–50K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.