GEL · TickerCove

GELGenesis Energy, L.P.Energy · Oil & Gas Midstreamas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $15.32 · now $15.32 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GEL has typically landed between $13.14 and $18.35 — a range of −14.2% to +19.7% from the issuance price $15.32.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($15.32) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$15.32 · 37% of range

$13.69 low$18.06 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.9%

typical move · IQR 12.6%

−14.2%worst (p90)+19.7%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where GEL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $15.32 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $15.32 (+0.0%)
typical $15.45 (+0.9%)
middle 50% $14.49–$16.42
90% range $13.14–$18.35

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−82.6%	−82.6%	+0.0%
2020-02-21	−77.9%	−78.9%	+0.0%
2020-02-19	−77.2%	−80.1%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-05-06	+104.2%	+0.0%	+104.2%
2020-03-30	+102.0%	+0.0%	+102.0%
2020-05-05	+91.3%	+0.0%	+91.3%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

85%

+4.3%

n=20

Feb

65%

+1.4%

n=20

Mar

40%

−0.2%

n=20

Apr

70%

+6.9%

n=20

May

60%

+4.1%

n=20

Jun

45%

−0.8%

n=20

Jul

60%

+2.9%

n=20

Aug

45%

−2.1%

n=20

Sep

40%

−1.7%

n=20

Oct

45%

+1.0%

n=20

Nov

45%

+1.3%

n=20

Dec

50%

−1.0%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-18	Gaspard Garland G	officer	Purchase	12,340 @ $16.34	$202K	+50.3% of holding	−13.0%	not yet — horizon still open	36,881	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-25	Gaspard Garland G	officer	Purchase	5,016 @ $15.96	$80K	+25.7% of holding	−5.5%	−9.9%	24,541	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-13	SIMS RYAN S	officer	Purchase	1,000 @ $12.95	$13K	+4.4% of holding	+3.0%	+10.1%	23,500	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

291 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-01	JASTROW KENNETH M II	director	Disposition	2,649	150,000	Form 4
2026-07-01	Taylor Jack T	director	Disposition	2,575	32,865	Form 4
2026-07-01	ALBERT CONRAD P	director	Disposition	2,500	15,000	Form 4
2026-07-01	GASAWAY SHARILYN S	director	Disposition	2,500	288,364	Form 4
2026-07-01	Davison James E. Jr.	director	Disposition	2,388	3,883,045	Form 4
2026-07-01	ALBERT CONRAD P	director	Option exercise	2,500	17,500	Form 4
2026-07-01	Davison James E. Jr.	director	Option exercise	2,388	3,885,433	Form 4
2026-07-01	ALBERT CONRAD P	director	Option exercise	2,500	17,500	Form 4
2026-07-01	ALBERT CONRAD P	director	Option exercise	2,500	7,324	Form 4
2026-07-01	ALBERT CONRAD P	director	Award / grant	2,976	10,300	Form 4
2026-07-01	JASTROW KENNETH M II	director	Option exercise	2,649	152,649	Form 4
2026-07-01	GASAWAY SHARILYN S	director	Option exercise	2,500	7,563	Form 4
2026-07-01	JASTROW KENNETH M II	director	Option exercise	2,649	8,015	Form 4
2026-07-01	Davison James E. Jr.	director	Award / grant	2,843	10,068	Form 4
2026-07-01	JASTROW KENNETH M II	director	Award / grant	3,154	11,169	Form 4
2026-07-01	GASAWAY SHARILYN S	director	Option exercise	2,500	290,864	Form 4
2026-07-01	GASAWAY SHARILYN S	director	Option exercise	2,500	7,563	Form 4
2026-07-01	GASAWAY SHARILYN S	director	Award / grant	2,976	10,539	Form 4
2026-07-01	Davison James E. Jr.	director	Option exercise	2,388	3,885,433	Form 4
2026-07-01	Davison James E. Jr.	director	Option exercise	2,388	7,225	Form 4
2026-07-01	Davison James E. Jr.	director	Award / grant	2,843	10,068	Form 4
2026-07-01	Taylor Jack T	director	Option exercise	2,575	35,440	Form 4
2026-07-01	Taylor Jack T	director	Option exercise	2,575	7,550	Form 4
2026-07-01	Taylor Jack T	director	Award / grant	3,065	10,615	Form 4
2026-07-01	Davison James E. Jr.	director	Option exercise	2,388	7,225	Form 4
2026-07-01	JASTROW KENNETH M II	director	Option exercise	2,649	152,649	Form 4
2026-07-01	JASTROW KENNETH M II	director	Option exercise	2,649	8,015	Form 4
2026-07-01	JASTROW KENNETH M II	director	Award / grant	3,154	11,169	Form 4
2026-07-01	Taylor Jack T	director	Option exercise	2,575	35,440	Form 4
2026-07-01	Taylor Jack T	director	Option exercise	2,575	7,550	Form 4
2026-07-01	Taylor Jack T	director	Award / grant	3,065	10,615	Form 4
2026-07-01	GASAWAY SHARILYN S	director	Option exercise	2,500	290,864	Form 4
2026-07-01	ALBERT CONRAD P	director	Award / grant	2,976	10,300	Form 4
2026-07-01	GASAWAY SHARILYN S	director	Award / grant	2,976	10,539	Form 4
2026-07-01	ALBERT CONRAD P	director	Option exercise	2,500	7,324	Form 4
2026-05-21	Davison James E. Jr.	director	Other acquisition	1,527,239	5,410,284	Form 4
2026-05-21	Davison James E. Jr.	director	Other acquisition	1,527,239	5,410,284	Form 4
2026-04-14	SIMS RYAN S	officer	Award / grant	72,844	72,844	Form 4
2026-04-14	Thompson Frederick Michael	officer	Award / grant	6,177	6,177	Form 4
2026-04-14	Thompson Frederick Michael	officer	Award / grant	6,177	6,177	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i