GEGGreat Elm Group, Inc.Financial Services · Asset Managementas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $2.15 · now $2.15 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GEG has typically landed between $1.87 and $2.48 — a range of −13.0% to +15.2% from the issuance price $2.15.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,001 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($2.15) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where GEG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $2.15 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$1.87worst · -13.0%$2.48best · +15.2%
  • now $2.15 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $2.15 (+0.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $2.06–$2.24
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $1.87–$2.48
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,001 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2007-02-08−68.7%−68.7%+0.0%
2007-02-09−68.4%−68.4%+1.1%
2007-02-07−68.3%−68.3%+0.0%
3 best
2006-09-26+355.1%+0.0%+388.0%
2006-09-28+299.9%+0.0%+381.2%
2006-09-27+279.9%−4.9%+357.6%

5,001 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
25%
+1.8%
n=20
Feb
45%
+1.1%
n=20
Mar
35%
−2.3%
n=20
Apr
45%
−0.5%
n=20
May
50%
+6.4%
n=20
Jun
40%
−1.9%
n=20
Jul
35%
−1.7%
n=20
Aug
40%
−3.1%
n=20
Sep
40%
−2.1%
n=20
Oct
35%
+8.0%
n=20
Nov
50%
+1.3%
n=20
Dec
30%
−2.2%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$3$2↑ buys↓ sales
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

69 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-10Northern Right Capital Management, L.P.otherOther acquisition7,8874,243,168Form 4
2026-07-10Northern Right Capital Management, L.P.otherOther acquisition——Form 4
2026-07-10Northern Right Capital Management, L.P.otherOther acquisition——Form 4
2026-07-10Northern Right Capital Management, L.P.otherOther acquisition——Form 4
2026-07-10Northern Right Capital Management, L.P.otherOther acquisition——Form 4
2026-07-10Northern Right Capital Management, L.P.otherOther acquisition——Form 4
2026-07-10Northern Right Capital Management, L.P.otherOther acquisition——Form 4
2026-07-10Northern Right Capital Management, L.P.otherOther acquisition——Form 4
2026-07-10Northern Right Capital Management, L.P.otherOther acquisition——Form 4
2026-07-10Northern Right Capital Management, L.P.otherOther acquisition——Form 4
2026-07-10Northern Right Capital Management, L.P.otherOther acquisition——Form 4
2026-07-10Northern Right Capital Management, L.P.otherOther acquisition——Form 4
2026-07-10Northern Right Capital Management, L.P.otherOther acquisition——Form 4
2026-05-28Reese Jason W.directorGift99,6371,004,327Form 4
2026-03-03Reese Jason W.directorAward / grant27,0221,103,964Form 4
2026-01-08Matter DaviddirectorAward / grant30,612539,377Form 4
2026-01-08Parmelee James PdirectorAward / grant26,531464,462Form 4
2026-01-08Parmelee James PdirectorAward / grant48,980513,442Form 4
2026-01-08Matter DaviddirectorAward / grant26,531508,765Form 4
2026-01-08Drapkin Matthew AdirectorAward / grant61,224816,504Form 4
2026-01-08Drapkin Matthew AdirectorAward / grant26,531843,035Form 4
2026-01-08Scheyer Eric JdirectorAward / grant26,531448,250Form 4
2026-01-08Scheyer Eric JdirectorAward / grant30,612478,862Form 4
2026-01-08Smith BookerdirectorAward / grant26,53143,601Form 4
2026-01-08Smith BookerdirectorAward / grant30,61274,213Form 4
2026-01-08Schwartz David W.directorAward / grant26,531626,531Form 4
2026-01-08Schwartz David W.directorAward / grant32,877659,408Form 4
2026-01-08Drapkin Matthew AdirectorAward / grant26,531755,280Form 4
2026-01-08Nathan LloyddirectorAward / grant26,53149,348Form 4
2025-11-11Reese Jason W.directorGift100,0001,076,942Form 4
2025-09-23Kleinman Adam MofficerWithheld for tax18,313585,394Form 4
2025-09-23Milz NicholeofficerWithheld for tax18,227194,884Form 4
2025-09-23Davis KeriofficerWithheld for tax5,41843,436Form 4
2025-09-20Reese Jason W.directorAward / grant183,8231,176,942Form 4
2025-09-19Kleinman Adam MofficerAward / grant22,977603,707Form 4
2025-09-19Davis KeriofficerAward / grant9,19148,854Form 4
2025-09-19Milz NicholeofficerAward / grant36,764213,111Form 4
2025-09-08Smith BookerdirectorAward / grant8,5358,535Form 4
2025-09-08Smith BookerdirectorAward / grant8,53517,070Form 4
2025-09-08Nathan LloyddirectorAward / grant10,22022,817Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.