Issued 2026-09-16 at $5.32 · now $5.32 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GECC has typically landed between $4.61 and $5.88 — a range of −13.4% to +10.6% from the issuance price $5.32.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,457 overlapping 1 month windows · 2016-11-04 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($5.32) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where GECC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $5.32 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $5.32 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $5.33 (+0.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $5.11–$5.54
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.61–$5.88
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −66.9% | −66.9% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-24 | −63.2% | −66.7% | +0.4% |
| 2020-02-18 | −62.8% | −62.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-05-07 | +50.6% | −10.3% | +50.6% |
| 2020-11-04 | +50.0% | +0.0% | +50.9% |
| 2020-11-05 | +49.7% | +0.0% | +49.7% |
2,457 overlapping windows · 2016-11-04 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-07 | Kaplan Matthew D | officer | Purchase | 19,650 @ $7.64 | $150K | +16.0% of holding | −0.6% | −28.5% | 142,400 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-26 | Great Elm Strategic Partnership I, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 2,313 @ $11.45 | $26K | −0.1% of holding | −33.8% | −47.7% | 1,558,260 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-25 | Great Elm Strategic Partnership I, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,696 @ $11.45 | $19K | −0.1% of holding | −35.7% | −49.7% | 1,560,573 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-23 | Great Elm Strategic Partnership I, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 1,490 @ $11.45 | $17K | −0.1% of holding | −33.9% | −50.8% | 1,562,269 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-22 | Great Elm Strategic Partnership I, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 48,248 @ $11.45 | $552K | −3.0% of holding | −34.0% | −49.8% | 1,563,759 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-19 | Great Elm Strategic Partnership I, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 14,737 @ $11.45 | $169K | −0.9% of holding | −34.3% | −50.2% | 1,612,007 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-18 | Great Elm Strategic Partnership I, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 100 @ $11.45 | $1K | −0.0% of holding | −35.3% | −50.7% | 1,626,744 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | Great Elm Strategic Partnership I, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 20,938 @ $11.45 | $240K | −1.3% of holding | −33.7% | −54.5% | 1,626,844 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-26 | Great Elm Strategic Partnership I, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 21,472 @ $11.20 | $240K | −1.3% of holding | +2.9% | −45.6% | 1,647,782 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | Great Elm Strategic Partnership I, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 25,711 @ $11.20 | $288K | −1.5% of holding | +1.7% | −45.6% | 1,669,254 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Great Elm Strategic Partnership I, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 17,956 @ $11.20 | $201K | −1.0% of holding | +2.5% | −45.8% | 1,694,965 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-21 | Great Elm Strategic Partnership I, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 26,705 @ $11.20 | $299K | −1.5% of holding | −0.3% | −47.2% | 1,712,921 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-20 | Great Elm Strategic Partnership I, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 7,793 @ $11.20 | $87K | −0.4% of holding | +1.5% | −45.7% | 1,739,626 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-18 | Great Elm Strategic Partnership I, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 363 @ $11.20 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | +0.9% | −41.4% | 1,747,419 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-11 | Great Elm Strategic Partnership I, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 38,793 @ $10.95 | $425K | −2.2% of holding | −2.1% | −42.0% | 1,747,782 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-10 | Great Elm Strategic Partnership I, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 8,661 @ $10.95 | $95K | −0.5% of holding | −1.8% | −41.8% | 1,786,575 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-09 | Great Elm Strategic Partnership I, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 3,129 @ $10.95 | $34K | −0.2% of holding | −1.2% | −43.1% | 1,795,236 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-08 | Great Elm Strategic Partnership I, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 3,218 @ $10.95 | $35K | −0.2% of holding | −0.6% | −42.8% | 1,798,365 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-07 | Great Elm Strategic Partnership I, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Sale | 11,852 @ $10.95 | $130K | −0.7% of holding | −0.5% | −42.9% | 1,801,583 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-13 | COHEN RICHARD M | director | Purchase | 36 @ $11.01 | $396 | +0.2% of holding | −1.8% | −40.1% | 18,136 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-12 | COHEN RICHARD M | director | Purchase | 3,100 @ $10.95 | $34K | +20.7% of holding | −0.3% | −39.4% | 18,100 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-11 | COHEN RICHARD M | director | Purchase | 5,000 @ $11.18 | $56K | +50.0% of holding | −1.9% | −40.8% | 15,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | COHEN RICHARD M | director | Purchase | 3,500 @ $11.13 | $39K | +53.8% of holding | −1.7% | −38.5% | 10,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | COHEN RICHARD M | director | Purchase | 2,500 @ $11.12 | $28K | +62.5% of holding | −2.0% | −39.1% | 6,500 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | COHEN RICHARD M | director | Purchase | 1,500 @ $10.83 | $16K | +60.0% of holding | −2.0% | −39.1% | 4,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-06 | COHEN RICHARD M | director | Purchase | 1,500 @ $10.74 | $16K | +150.0% of holding | +1.2% | −36.4% | 2,500 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-06 | COHEN RICHARD M | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $10.64 | $11K | ownership Δ n/a | +1.2% | −36.4% | 1,000 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-04 | Perry Chad | director | Purchase | 1,850 @ $10.58 | $20K | ownership Δ n/a | +2.2% | −36.8% | 1,850 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
13 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-29 | Great Elm Strategic Partnership I, LLC | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 180,000 | 1,378,260 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-23 | Kaplan Matthew D | officer | Withheld for tax | 8,211 | 122,750 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-23 | Davis Keri | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,725 | 21,893 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-23 | Kleinman Adam M | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,361 | 44,597 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-20 | Great Elm Group, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 63,189 | 1,358,278 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-19 | Kaplan Matthew D | officer | Award / grant | 1,055 | 130,961 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-19 | Davis Keri | officer | Award / grant | 3,820 | 23,212 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-19 | Davis Keri | officer | Award / grant | 1,406 | 24,618 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-19 | Kaplan Matthew D | officer | Award / grant | 37,117 | 129,906 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-19 | Kleinman Adam M | officer | Award / grant | 5,458 | 45,802 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-19 | Kleinman Adam M | officer | Award / grant | 156 | 45,958 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-19 | Great Elm Group, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 16,612 | 1,421,467 | Form 4 |
| 2024-12-23 | Great Elm Group, Inc. | tenPercentOwner | Other acquisition | 2,643 | 1,438,079 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.