Issued 2026-09-16 at $99.09 · now $99.09 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GDDY has typically landed between $85.16 and $113.82 — a range of −14.1% to +14.9% from the issuance price $99.09.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
2,862 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-03-31 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($99.09) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where GDDY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $99.09 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $99.09 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $100.09 (+1.0%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $94.6–$105.58
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $85.16–$113.82
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −46.0% | −46.0% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-14 | −42.9% | −43.3% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-13 | −37.3% | −37.3% | +10.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-03-18 | +59.4% | +0.0% | +59.4% |
| 2020-03-17 | +44.0% | −6.4% | +44.0% |
| 2020-03-16 | +43.3% | −5.6% | +43.7% |
2,862 overlapping windows · 2015-03-31 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$184.24
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$216.18
- Analyst target · range $83.00–$100.00$100.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$99.09
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Bhutani Amanpal Singh | director | Sale | 8,194 @ $101.19 | $829K | −1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 504,553 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | McCaffrey Mark | director | Sale | 3,873 @ $101.19 | $392K | −3.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 99,855 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | McCaffrey Mark | director | Sale | 2,000 @ $100.37 | $201K | −1.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 103,728 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Sine Jared F. | officer | Sale | 1,163 @ $101.19 | $118K | −1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 71,808 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Palitwanon Phontip | officer | Sale | 530 @ $101.19 | $54K | −3.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 17,204 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Bhutani Amanpal Singh | director | Sale | 4,500 @ $97.44 | $438K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 512,747 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Sine Jared F. | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $101.92 | $306K | −3.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 72,971 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Zarmi Sigal | director | Sale | 350 @ $97.44 | $34K | −4.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 8,283 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Sweet Leah | director | Sale | 325 @ $97.44 | $32K | −2.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 13,689 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-28 | Sweet Leah | director | Sale | 325 @ $97.37 | $32K | −2.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 14,014 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Palitwanon Phontip | officer | Sale | 2,073 @ $91.82 | $190K | −10.4% of holding | +7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,922 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Palitwanon Phontip | officer | Sale | 188 @ $91.70 | $17K | −1.0% of holding | +7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 17,734 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Bhutani Amanpal Singh | director | Sale | 4,500 @ $83.15 | $374K | −0.9% of holding | +13.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 517,247 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-02 | Sine Jared F. | officer | Sale | 644 @ $87.53 | $56K | −0.8% of holding | −1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 75,971 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | McCaffrey Mark | director | Sale | 3,500 @ $82.92 | $290K | −3.2% of holding | +6.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 105,728 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Bhutani Amanpal Singh | director | Sale | 8,373 @ $89.86 | $752K | −1.6% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 521,747 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | McCaffrey Mark | director | Sale | 3,958 @ $89.86 | $356K | −3.5% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 109,228 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Sine Jared F. | officer | Sale | 1,188 @ $89.86 | $107K | −1.5% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 76,615 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Palitwanon Phontip | officer | Sale | 542 @ $89.86 | $49K | −2.6% of holding | +1.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,995 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Zarmi Sigal | director | Sale | 350 @ $87.84 | $31K | −5.8% of holding | −5.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,708 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | McCaffrey Mark | director | Sale | 16 @ $89.15 | $1K | −0.0% of holding | −17.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 113,186 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Sine Jared F. | officer | Sale | 13 @ $89.15 | $1K | −0.0% of holding | −17.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 77,803 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Palitwanon Phontip | officer | Sale | 12 @ $89.15 | $1K | −0.1% of holding | −17.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,537 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-02 | Sine Jared F. | officer | Sale | 7,793 @ $80.71 | $629K | −9.1% of holding | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 77,816 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Palitwanon Phontip | officer | Sale | 1,310 @ $90.15 | $118K | −6.0% of holding | −11.0% | −9.4% | 20,349 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Bhutani Amanpal Singh | director | Sale | 34,148 @ $88.99 | $3.0M | −6.1% of holding | −3.9% | +2.6% | 530,120 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | McCaffrey Mark | director | Sale | 17,406 @ $88.99 | $1.5M | −13.3% of holding | −3.9% | +2.6% | 113,003 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Bhutani Amanpal Singh | director | Sale | 5,231 @ $87.83 | $459K | −0.9% of holding | −6.1% | +0.1% | 564,268 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | McCaffrey Mark | director | Sale | 2,407 @ $87.83 | $211K | −1.8% of holding | −6.1% | +0.1% | 130,409 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Palitwanon Phontip | officer | Sale | 766 @ $87.83 | $67K | −3.4% of holding | −6.1% | +0.1% | 21,659 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Sine Jared F. | officer | Sale | 223 @ $87.83 | $20K | −0.3% of holding | −6.1% | +0.1% | 85,609 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Sweet Leah | director | Sale | 650 @ $86.86 | $56K | −5.4% of holding | −1.3% | −1.4% | 11,414 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-05 | Sine Jared F. | officer | Sale | 683 @ $117.27 | $80K | −1.1% of holding | −19.1% | −35.7% | 61,668 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-02 | Sine Jared F. | officer | Sale | 475 @ $123.61 | $59K | −0.8% of holding | −21.6% | −34.7% | 62,351 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Palitwanon Phontip | officer | Sale | 2,268 @ $128.44 | $291K | −11.7% of holding | −13.9% | −49.1% | 17,055 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Palitwanon Phontip | officer | Sale | 129 @ $128.48 | $17K | −0.7% of holding | −13.9% | −49.1% | 19,323 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Bhutani Amanpal Singh | director | Sale | 6,932 @ $127.94 | $887K | −1.7% of holding | −8.2% | −45.6% | 399,133 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | McCaffrey Mark | director | Sale | 3,317 @ $127.94 | $424K | −4.7% of holding | −8.2% | −45.6% | 66,816 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Palitwanon Phontip | officer | Sale | 969 @ $127.94 | $124K | −4.7% of holding | −8.2% | −45.6% | 19,452 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Sine Jared F. | officer | Sale | 360 @ $127.94 | $46K | −0.6% of holding | −8.2% | −45.6% | 62,826 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-01 | Sine Jared F. | officer | Sale | 475 @ $127.03 | $60K | −0.7% of holding | −3.6% | −45.9% | 63,186 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | SHARPLES BRIAN | director | Sale | 500 @ $133.11 | $67K | −2.4% of holding | −3.7% | −44.9% | 19,957 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Sine Jared F. | officer | Sale | 475 @ $133.11 | $63K | −0.7% of holding | −3.7% | −44.9% | 63,661 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-02 | Sine Jared F. | officer | Sale | 966 @ $133.17 | $129K | −1.5% of holding | −2.6% | −37.2% | 64,136 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | SHARPLES BRIAN | director | Sale | 500 @ $136.57 | $68K | −2.4% of holding | −5.8% | −36.9% | 20,457 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-01 | Sine Jared F. | officer | Sale | 475 @ $136.57 | $65K | −0.7% of holding | −5.8% | −36.9% | 65,102 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-15 | Chen Roger | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $145.71 | $146K | −0.4% of holding | −9.6% | −43.6% | 251,949 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-10 | Bhutani Amanpal Singh | director | Sale | 6,000 @ $150.00 | $900K | −1.5% of holding | −10.9% | −47.0% | 406,065 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | Bhutani Amanpal Singh | director | Sale | 6,950 @ $142.21 | $988K | −1.7% of holding | −10.9% | −41.5% | 412,065 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | McCaffrey Mark | director | Sale | 3,326 @ $142.21 | $473K | −4.5% of holding | −10.9% | −41.5% | 70,133 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | Palitwanon Phontip | officer | Sale | 777 @ $142.21 | $110K | −3.7% of holding | −10.9% | −41.5% | 20,421 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-03 | Sine Jared F. | officer | Sale | 361 @ $142.21 | $51K | −0.5% of holding | −10.9% | −41.5% | 65,577 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | SHARPLES BRIAN | director | Sale | 500 @ $146.26 | $73K | −2.3% of holding | −13.1% | −46.2% | 20,957 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Sine Jared F. | officer | Sale | 475 @ $146.26 | $69K | −0.7% of holding | −13.1% | −46.2% | 65,938 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-15 | Chen Roger | officer | Sale | 1,000 @ $143.53 | $144K | −0.4% of holding | −3.8% | −44.3% | 252,949 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-13 | Sweet Leah | director | Sale | 650 @ $141.14 | $92K | −5.1% of holding | −0.7% | −44.7% | 12,064 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Bhutani Amanpal Singh | director | Sale | 3,108 @ $160.03 | $497K | −0.7% of holding | −10.7% | −48.5% | 419,015 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Bhutani Amanpal Singh | director | Sale | 2,892 @ $158.84 | $459K | −0.7% of holding | −10.7% | −48.5% | 422,123 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | SHARPLES BRIAN | director | Sale | 500 @ $160.47 | $80K | −2.3% of holding | −10.7% | −48.5% | 21,457 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-01 | Sine Jared F. | officer | Sale | 475 @ $160.47 | $76K | −0.7% of holding | −10.7% | −48.5% | 66,413 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
32 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | Zarmi Sigal | director | Award / grant | 2,925 | 8,633 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | DONAHUE CAROLINE F | director | Award / grant | 2,925 | 24,309 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | GARRETT MARK | director | Award / grant | 2,925 | 25,289 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | SHARPLES BRIAN | director | Award / grant | 3,843 | 23,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Sweet Leah | director | Award / grant | 2,925 | 14,339 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Tallapragada Srinivas | director | Award / grant | 2,925 | 9,383 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Chen Herald Y | director | Award / grant | 2,925 | 21,582 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | SMITH GRAHAM | director | Award / grant | 2,925 | 6,267 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Chen Roger | officer | Award / grant | 32,219 | 284,168 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Sine Jared F. | officer | Award / grant | 24,164 | 85,832 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Palitwanon Phontip | officer | Award / grant | 5,370 | 22,425 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | McCaffrey Mark | director | Award / grant | 32,219 | 99,035 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | McCaffrey Mark | director | Award / grant | 33,781 | 132,816 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Bhutani Amanpal Singh | director | Award / grant | 85,916 | 485,049 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Bhutani Amanpal Singh | director | Award / grant | 84,450 | 569,499 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Chen Roger | officer | Award / grant | 33,781 | 317,949 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-04 | Sweet Leah | director | Award / grant | 1,397 | 12,714 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-04 | GARRETT MARK | director | Award / grant | 1,397 | 22,364 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-04 | SHARPLES BRIAN | director | Award / grant | 1,836 | 22,457 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-04 | DONAHUE CAROLINE F | director | Award / grant | 1,397 | 21,384 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-04 | Chen Herald Y | director | Award / grant | 1,397 | 18,657 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-04 | Tallapragada Srinivas | director | Award / grant | 1,397 | 6,458 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-04 | Zarmi Sigal | director | Award / grant | 1,397 | 6,058 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-04 | SMITH GRAHAM | director | Award / grant | 1,397 | 3,342 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | Chen Roger | officer | Award / grant | 51,728 | 258,949 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | Bhutani Amanpal Singh | director | Award / grant | 129,318 | 508,649 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-01 | McCaffrey Mark | director | Award / grant | 51,728 | 149,736 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-28 | McCaffrey Mark | director | Award / grant | 14,754 | 98,008 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-28 | Bhutani Amanpal Singh | director | Award / grant | 49,178 | 379,331 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-28 | Chen Roger | officer | Award / grant | 24,589 | 207,221 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-28 | Sine Jared F. | officer | Award / grant | 10,820 | 79,711 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-28 | Palitwanon Phontip | officer | Award / grant | 3,099 | 24,605 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-07-02 | 2026-06-16 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-24 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-05-08 | 2026-04-14 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-13 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2025-11-18 | 2025-10-14 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2025-11-18 | 2025-10-15 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2025-11-18 | 2025-10-16 | $15–50K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.