Issued 2026-09-25 at $336.72 · now $336.72 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, GD has typically landed between $311.56 and $366.54 — a range of −7.5% to +8.9% from the issuance price $336.72.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,692 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($336.72) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where GD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $336.72 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $336.72 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $342.01 (+1.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $331.97–$352.06
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $311.56–$366.54
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −43.2% | −43.2% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-20 | −38.7% | −38.7% | +0.9% |
| 2020-02-24 | −38.1% | −42.3% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2020-05-06 | +33.3% | +0.0% | +33.3% |
| 2020-05-07 | +32.0% | +0.0% | +32.0% |
| 2009-03-30 | +27.0% | −1.8% | +27.0% |
4,692 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 74 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$359.35
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 30.7× · n=74$487.38
- Analyst target · range $371.00–$440.00$435.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$336.72
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | STEEL ROBERT K | director | Sale | 2,770 @ $346.08 | $959K | −47.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,096 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-23 | STEEL ROBERT K | director | Sale | 2,190 @ $346.12 | $758K | −41.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,096 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-23 | STEEL ROBERT K | director | Sale | 1,780 @ $346.01 | $616K | −36.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,096 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-23 | STEEL ROBERT K | director | Sale | 700 @ $345.82 | $242K | −18.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 3,096 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Wall Peter A | director | Sale | 1,990 @ $396.43 | $789K | −33.4% of holding | −9.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,969 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Brady Christopher J | officer | Sale | 6,320 @ $383.32 | $2.4M | −20.2% of holding | −5.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 24,924 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | NOVAKOVIC PHEBE N | director | Sale | 22,707 @ $382.17 | $8.7M | −2.8% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 789,645 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | NOVAKOVIC PHEBE N | director | Sale | 15,917 @ $383.09 | $6.1M | −2.0% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 773,728 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | NOVAKOVIC PHEBE N | director | Sale | 7,271 @ $383.85 | $2.8M | −0.9% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 766,457 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | NOVAKOVIC PHEBE N | director | Sale | 5,673 @ $381.17 | $2.2M | −0.7% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 812,352 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Gilliland Marguerite Amy | director | Sale | 26,210 @ $378.42 | $9.9M | −36.9% of holding | −5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 44,767 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-31 | Gilliland Marguerite Amy | director | Sale | 16,970 @ $377.44 | $6.4M | −19.3% of holding | −5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 70,977 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Malcolm Mark | director | Sale | 3,210 @ $365.00 | $1.2M | −23.2% of holding | +2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,643 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Malcolm Mark | director | Sale | 2,270 @ $365.00 | $829K | −17.6% of holding | +2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,643 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Burns Mark Lagrand | officer | Sale | 33,915 @ $345.24 | $11.7M | −44.9% of holding | +3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 41,540 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-12 | Burns Mark Lagrand | officer | Sale | 2,565 @ $345.93 | $887K | −6.2% of holding | +3.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,975 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Burns Mark Lagrand | officer | Sale | 28,641 @ $343.66 | $9.8M | −42.4% of holding | +1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 38,975 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Burns Mark Lagrand | officer | Sale | 7,589 @ $342.83 | $2.6M | −10.1% of holding | +1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 67,616 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | NOVAKOVIC PHEBE N | director | Sale | 23,011 @ $354.24 | $8.2M | −2.9% of holding | −5.6% | −11.6% | 766,457 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Burns Mark Lagrand | officer | Sale | 10,153 @ $354.95 | $3.6M | −20.7% of holding | −5.6% | −11.6% | 38,975 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | NOVAKOVIC PHEBE N | director | Sale | 9,907 @ $353.75 | $3.5M | −1.2% of holding | −5.6% | −11.6% | 789,468 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Gilliland Marguerite Amy | director | Sale | 3,819 @ $353.50 | $1.4M | −7.9% of holding | −5.6% | −11.6% | 44,767 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Gallopoulos Gregory S | officer | Sale | 3,729 @ $354.35 | $1.3M | −2.9% of holding | −5.6% | −11.6% | 125,764 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-13 | Rayha Mark | officer | Sale | 4,370 @ $348.79 | $1.5M | −35.5% of holding | +4.1% | −0.4% | 7,936 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Paddock David | officer | Sale | 16,895 @ $334.88 | $5.7M | −31.6% of holding | +6.0% | −8.8% | 36,644 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-17 | Paddock David | officer | Sale | 3,465 @ $335.12 | $1.2M | −6.1% of holding | +6.0% | −8.8% | 53,539 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-20 | Rayha Mark | officer | Sale | 100 @ $339.90 | $34K | −1.7% of holding | −3.6% | −13.3% | 5,826 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Malcolm Mark | director | Sale | 3,220 @ $329.45 | $1.1M | −24.0% of holding | +1.8% | +7.2% | 10,186 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-25 | Brady Christopher J | officer | Sale | 8,150 @ $321.18 | $2.6M | −26.3% of holding | −2.0% | −0.3% | 22,818 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-22 | Malcolm Mark | director | Sale | 1,210 @ $319.04 | $386K | −10.6% of holding | −1.9% | +3.7% | 10,186 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | NOVAKOVIC PHEBE N | director | Sale | 118,573 @ $313.50 | $37.2M | −13.4% of holding | +1.3% | +5.1% | 769,607 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-18 | NOVAKOVIC PHEBE N | director | Sale | 10,517 @ $314.43 | $3.3M | −1.3% of holding | +1.3% | +5.1% | 769,607 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Moss William A | officer | Sale | 8,920 @ $316.32 | $2.8M | −34.9% of holding | +1.1% | +4.7% | 16,627 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-14 | Moss William A | officer | Sale | 8,780 @ $316.48 | $2.8M | −34.6% of holding | +1.1% | +4.7% | 16,627 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-08 | Gilliland Marguerite Amy | director | Sale | 33,740 @ $315.20 | $10.6M | −42.7% of holding | +0.2% | +6.1% | 45,192 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Paddock David | officer | Sale | 6,170 @ $312.26 | $1.9M | −17.4% of holding | +1.2% | +4.7% | 29,264 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | Burns Mark Lagrand | officer | Sale | 24,067 @ $312.62 | $7.5M | −37.6% of holding | +1.6% | +8.3% | 39,875 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | Burns Mark Lagrand | officer | Sale | 19,793 @ $311.85 | $6.2M | −23.6% of holding | +1.6% | +8.3% | 63,942 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | DE LEON RUDY F | director | Sale | 3,220 @ $312.93 | $1.0M | −37.0% of holding | +1.6% | +8.3% | 5,483 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-28 | DE LEON RUDY F | director | Sale | 2,270 @ $312.63 | $710K | −29.3% of holding | +1.6% | +8.3% | 5,483 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-25 | Burns Mark Lagrand | officer | Sale | 24,845 @ $314.17 | $7.8M | −38.4% of holding | +1.0% | +7.4% | 39,875 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-25 | Burns Mark Lagrand | officer | Sale | 7,715 @ $313.23 | $2.4M | −10.7% of holding | +1.0% | +7.4% | 64,720 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-25 | Wall Peter A | director | Sale | 2,270 @ $312.79 | $710K | −37.3% of holding | +1.0% | +7.4% | 3,812 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | NOVAKOVIC PHEBE N | director | Sale | 4,904 @ $280.04 | $1.4M | −0.6% of holding | +3.5% | +9.5% | 772,342 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-16 | NOVAKOVIC PHEBE N | director | Sale | 2,735 @ $281.17 | $769K | −0.4% of holding | +3.5% | +9.5% | 769,607 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-13 | NOVAKOVIC PHEBE N | director | Sale | 177,611 @ $283.12 | $50.3M | −18.7% of holding | +1.7% | +5.5% | 770,817 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-13 | Gallopoulos Gregory S | officer | Sale | 30,509 @ $284.36 | $8.7M | −21.6% of holding | +1.7% | +5.5% | 110,724 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-13 | Gallopoulos Gregory S | officer | Sale | 8,109 @ $283.00 | $2.3M | −5.4% of holding | +1.7% | +5.5% | 141,233 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
252 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | STEEL ROBERT K | director | Option exercise | 2,190 | 5,286 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | STEEL ROBERT K | director | Option exercise | 2,770 | 5,866 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | STEEL ROBERT K | director | Option exercise | 1,780 | 4,876 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | STEEL ROBERT K | director | Option exercise | 700 | 3,796 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | STEEL ROBERT K | director | Option exercise | 1,780 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | STEEL ROBERT K | director | Option exercise | 700 | 700 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | STEEL ROBERT K | director | Option exercise | 2,770 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | STEEL ROBERT K | director | Option exercise | 2,190 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | Reynolds Catherine B | director | Award / grant | 105 | 7,531 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | Schumacher Laura J | director | Award / grant | 105 | 13,792 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | Stratton John G | director | Award / grant | 105 | 8,589 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | DE LEON RUDY F | director | Award / grant | 52 | 5,769 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | Nye C Howard | director | Award / grant | 52 | 6,788 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | Hooper Charles W | director | Award / grant | 21 | 1,370 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | HANEY CECIL D | director | Award / grant | 10 | 3,049 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Rayha Mark | officer | Withheld for tax | 19 | 10,403 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Deep Danny | director | Withheld for tax | 17,070 | 48,245 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Deep Danny | director | Option exercise | 25,070 | 65,315 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Deep Danny | director | Withheld for tax | 5,833 | 40,245 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Deep Danny | director | Option exercise | 8,530 | 46,078 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Deep Danny | director | Option exercise | 25,070 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Deep Danny | director | Option exercise | 8,530 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Smith Robert Edward | officer | Withheld for tax | 23,930 | 95,516 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Smith Robert Edward | officer | Option exercise | 35,010 | 119,446 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Smith Robert Edward | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,755 | 84,436 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Smith Robert Edward | officer | Option exercise | 9,430 | 91,191 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Smith Robert Edward | officer | Option exercise | 9,430 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | Smith Robert Edward | officer | Option exercise | 35,010 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-11 | DE LEON RUDY F | director | Gift | 128 | 5,717 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Kuryea Kimberly A | director | Withheld for tax | 21,557 | 93,824 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Kuryea Kimberly A | director | Option exercise | 28,300 | 115,381 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Wall Peter A | director | Option exercise | 1,990 | 5,959 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Kuryea Kimberly A | director | Option exercise | 28,300 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Wall Peter A | director | Option exercise | 1,990 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | Gallopoulos Gregory S | officer | Gift | 1,500 | 124,264 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Brady Christopher J | officer | Option exercise | 6,320 | 31,244 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Brady Christopher J | officer | Option exercise | 6,320 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Deep Danny | director | Withheld for tax | 4,565 | 37,548 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Deep Danny | director | Withheld for tax | 4,428 | 36,213 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Deep Danny | director | Option exercise | 5,900 | 42,113 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Dwight Evans | House | sale | 2026-06-24 | 2026-06-10 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | purchase | 2026-04-30 | 2026-03-31 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | purchase | 2026-04-30 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Jared Moskowitz | House | purchase | 2026-04-30 | 2026-03-23 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-10 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-02-13 | 2026-01-09 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2026-01-15 | 2025-12-18 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-12-11 | 2025-11-13 | $1–15K |
| Julie Johnson | House | sale | 2025-09-11 | 2025-08-14 | $1–15K |
| John Boozman | Senate | sale | 2025-08-06 | 2025-07-31 | $1–15K |
| Shelley Moore Capito | Senate | sale | 2025-08-04 | 2025-07-31 | $1–15K |
| Scott Scott Franklin | House | purchase | 2025-07-03 | 2024-08-07 | $1–15K |
| John Boozman | Senate | sale | 2025-06-14 | 2025-05-20 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.