Issued 2026-09-16 at $51.64 · now $51.64 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GCT has typically landed between $37.70 and $77.68 — a range of −27.0% to +50.4% from the issuance price $51.64.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,000 overlapping 1 month windows · 2022-08-18 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($51.64) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where GCT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $51.64 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $51.64 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $53.46 (+3.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $44.74–$62.17
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $37.7–$77.68
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,000 windows spanning 2022-08-18 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-09-08 | −68.3% | −68.3% | +0.0% |
| 2022-08-22 | −67.8% | −68.6% | +0.0% |
| 2022-09-13 | −66.2% | −66.2% | +1.3% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2023-11-30 | +106.4% | +0.0% | +106.4% |
| 2023-11-29 | +87.7% | −0.3% | +87.7% |
| 2023-11-27 | +85.5% | −1.0% | +85.5% |
1,000 overlapping windows · 2022-08-18 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
100%
+10.3%
n=4
Feb
50%
+11.4%
n=4
Mar
50%
−4.5%
n=4
Apr
25%
−1.7%
n=4
May
50%
+10.3%
n=4
Jun
50%
−0.5%
n=4
Jul
75%
+19.3%
n=4
Aug
75%
+9.8%
n=4
Sep
60%
−5.7%
n=5
Oct
25%
−12.2%
n=4
Nov
100%
+25.3%
n=4
Dec
50%
+11.6%
n=4
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Chen Zhiwu | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $52.96 | $79K | −5.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 24,057 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-09-14 | Chen Zhiwu | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $52.38 | $79K | −5.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 25,557 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Bernes Marshall | director | Sale | 10,000 @ $53.00 | $530K | −15.8% of holding | +1.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 53,150 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | WAN XIN | officer | Sale | 32,372 @ $50.55 | $1.6M | −4.5% of holding | +2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 685,168 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | WAN XIN | officer | Sale | 27,628 @ $51.40 | $1.4M | −4.0% of holding | +2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 657,540 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | Bernes Marshall | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $51.88 | $259K | −7.3% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 63,150 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | SCHROCK IMAN AJ | officer | Sale | 3,379 @ $52.20 | $176K | −14.5% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-10 | SCHROCK IMAN AJ | officer | Sale | 3,300 @ $51.61 | $170K | −16.5% of holding | +1.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 16,700 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-20 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 25,648 @ $40.06 | $1.0M | −28.5% of holding | +9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 64,352 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-20 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 4,352 @ $41.29 | $180K | −6.8% of holding | +9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 60,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-20 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 2,481 @ $42.54 | $106K | −2.7% of holding | +9.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 90,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-19 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 16,763 @ $40.98 | $687K | −14.0% of holding | +9.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 103,237 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-19 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 10,756 @ $41.69 | $448K | −10.4% of holding | +9.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 92,481 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-18 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 25,427 @ $43.12 | $1.1M | −17.0% of holding | +13.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 124,573 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-18 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 4,573 @ $43.71 | $200K | −3.7% of holding | +13.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 120,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-17 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 17,280 @ $43.05 | $744K | −9.6% of holding | +7.1% | +7.0% | 162,720 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 9,185 @ $44.06 | $405K | −5.6% of holding | +7.1% | +7.0% | 153,535 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-17 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 3,535 @ $44.93 | $159K | −2.3% of holding | +7.1% | +7.0% | 150,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 29,510 @ $42.38 | $1.3M | −14.1% of holding | +5.1% | +10.7% | 180,490 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 490 @ $43.03 | $21K | −0.3% of holding | +5.1% | +10.7% | 180,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 22,246 @ $41.15 | $915K | −9.3% of holding | +4.6% | +13.3% | 217,754 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-13 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 7,754 @ $41.95 | $325K | −3.6% of holding | +4.6% | +13.3% | 210,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 26,902 @ $42.81 | $1.2M | −10.1% of holding | +1.7% | +9.8% | 240,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 3,098 @ $42.00 | $130K | −1.1% of holding | +1.7% | +9.8% | 266,902 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 21,697 @ $43.24 | $938K | −7.2% of holding | +0.9% | +5.6% | 278,303 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 8,303 @ $43.73 | $363K | −3.0% of holding | +0.9% | +5.6% | 270,000 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 18,060 @ $42.91 | $775K | −5.5% of holding | +8.2% | +8.3% | 311,940 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-10 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 11,230 @ $43.65 | $490K | −3.6% of holding | +8.2% | +8.3% | 300,710 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-10 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 710 @ $44.75 | $32K | −0.2% of holding | +8.2% | +8.3% | 300,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-09 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 15,693 @ $41.96 | $658K | −4.4% of holding | +3.4% | +4.9% | 339,866 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 7,361 @ $42.67 | $314K | −2.2% of holding | +3.4% | +4.9% | 332,505 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 4,441 @ $40.82 | $181K | −1.2% of holding | +3.4% | +4.9% | 355,559 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-09 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 2,505 @ $43.88 | $110K | −0.8% of holding | +3.4% | +4.9% | 330,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 29,900 @ $42.14 | $1.3M | −7.7% of holding | −2.4% | +5.9% | 360,100 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 100 @ $42.74 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | −2.4% | +5.9% | 360,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-05 | WAN XIN | officer | Sale | 100,000 @ $43.38 | $4.3M | −12.2% of holding | +7.3% | +2.4% | 717,540 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-05 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 27,063 @ $43.05 | $1.2M | −6.4% of holding | +7.3% | +2.4% | 392,937 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-05 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 2,937 @ $43.70 | $128K | −0.7% of holding | +7.3% | +2.4% | 390,000 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-04 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 29,310 @ $44.20 | $1.3M | −6.5% of holding | +4.9% | +1.5% | 421,600 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 9,090 @ $43.52 | $396K | −2.0% of holding | +4.9% | +1.5% | 450,910 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 1,600 @ $44.94 | $72K | −0.4% of holding | +4.9% | +1.5% | 420,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 33,901 @ $40.44 | $1.4M | −6.5% of holding | +11.2% | −1.4% | 484,189 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 15,906 @ $41.47 | $660K | −3.3% of holding | +11.2% | −1.4% | 468,283 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-03 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 8,283 @ $42.33 | $351K | −1.8% of holding | +11.2% | −1.4% | 460,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 17,520 @ $42.55 | $745K | −3.2% of holding | +10.5% | +0.5% | 530,570 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-03-02 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 12,480 @ $43.23 | $540K | −2.4% of holding | +10.5% | +0.5% | 518,090 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-27 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 21,235 @ $43.27 | $919K | −3.6% of holding | +1.3% | +6.7% | 566,612 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 20,243 @ $42.45 | $859K | −3.3% of holding | +1.3% | +6.7% | 587,847 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 12,607 @ $45.43 | $573K | −2.2% of holding | +1.3% | +6.7% | 548,590 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 5,415 @ $44.41 | $240K | −1.0% of holding | +1.3% | +6.7% | 561,197 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-27 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 500 @ $46.10 | $23K | −0.1% of holding | +1.3% | +6.7% | 548,090 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 21,934 @ $45.95 | $1.0M | −3.4% of holding | −3.7% | −2.7% | 621,233 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 19,358 @ $45.21 | $875K | −2.9% of holding | −3.7% | −2.7% | 643,167 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 13,143 @ $46.82 | $615K | −2.1% of holding | −3.7% | −2.7% | 608,090 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 7,137 @ $43.23 | $309K | −1.1% of holding | −3.7% | −2.7% | 667,274 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 4,749 @ $43.78 | $208K | −0.7% of holding | −3.7% | −2.7% | 662,525 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-26 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 3,679 @ $42.13 | $155K | −0.5% of holding | −3.7% | −2.7% | 674,411 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-22 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 15,952 @ $40.66 | $649K | −2.3% of holding | −15.6% | −18.7% | 682,138 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-22 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 4,048 @ $41.27 | $167K | −0.6% of holding | −15.6% | −18.7% | 678,090 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-01-21 | Wu Lei | director | Sale | 210 @ $40.26 | $8K | −0.0% of holding | −12.2% | −18.0% | 698,090 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
92 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Wu Lei | director | Option exercise | 413,942 | 700,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Wu Lei | director | Other acquisition | 413,942 | 700,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Wu Lei | director | Option exercise | 413,942 | 6,451,732 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Wu Lei | director | Other acquisition | 413,942 | 700,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Wu Lei | director | Option exercise | 413,942 | 6,451,732 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Wu Lei | director | Option exercise | 413,942 | 6,451,732 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Wu Lei | director | Other acquisition | 413,942 | 700,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Wu Lei | director | Option exercise | 413,942 | 6,451,732 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Wu Lei | director | Other acquisition | 413,942 | 700,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Wu Lei | director | Other acquisition | 413,942 | 700,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Wu Lei | director | Option exercise | 413,942 | 6,451,732 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Wu Lei | director | Option exercise | 413,942 | 6,451,732 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Wu Lei | director | Other acquisition | 413,942 | 700,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Wu Lei | director | Option exercise | 413,942 | 6,451,732 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Wu Lei | director | Other acquisition | 413,942 | 700,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Wu Lei | director | Option exercise | 413,942 | 6,451,732 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | Wu Lei | director | Other acquisition | 413,942 | 700,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | VISSER JAN WILLIAM | director | Award / grant | 549 | 13,445 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | LEBENSBURGER KENNETH E JR | director | Award / grant | 549 | 3,183 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | Chen Zhiwu | director | Award / grant | 549 | 27,057 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | Wu Lei | director | Gift | 6,000 | 154,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Wu Lei | director | Option exercise | 243,008 | 286,058 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Wu Lei | director | Other acquisition | 243,008 | 243,008 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Wu Lei | director | Option exercise | 243,008 | 6,865,674 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Wu Lei | director | Option exercise | 243,008 | 6,865,674 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Wu Lei | director | Other acquisition | 243,008 | 243,008 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Wu Lei | director | Other acquisition | 243,008 | 243,008 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Wu Lei | director | Option exercise | 243,008 | 6,865,674 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Wu Lei | director | Other acquisition | 243,008 | 243,008 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-04 | Wu Lei | director | Option exercise | 243,008 | 6,865,674 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Wu Lei | director | Option exercise | 43,050 | 43,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Wu Lei | director | Option exercise | 43,050 | 7,108,682 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Wu Lei | director | Other acquisition | 43,050 | 43,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Wu Lei | director | Other acquisition | 43,050 | 43,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Wu Lei | director | Option exercise | 43,050 | 7,108,682 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Wu Lei | director | Other acquisition | 43,050 | 43,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Wu Lei | director | Option exercise | 43,050 | 7,108,682 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Wu Lei | director | Other acquisition | 43,050 | 43,050 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-02 | Wu Lei | director | Option exercise | 43,050 | 7,108,682 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-17 | LEBENSBURGER KENNETH E JR | director | Award / grant | 790 | 2,634 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.