GCOGenesco Inc.as of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $33.39 · now $33.39 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GCO has typically landed between $25.81 and $42.00 — a range of −22.7% to +25.8% from the issuance price $33.39.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($33.39) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where GCO has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $33.39 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$25.81worst · -22.7%$42best · +25.8%
  • now $33.39 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $33.45 (+0.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $30.17–$36.73
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $25.81–$42
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−76.5%−76.5%+2.7%
2020-02-21−70.8%−76.2%+0.0%
2020-02-20−69.7%−77.2%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18+94.3%+0.0%+119.1%
2020-10-28+80.1%−2.1%+95.8%
2020-10-26+75.5%−12.2%+75.5%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
44%
+0.5%
n=18
Feb
47%
+0.7%
n=19
Mar
53%
−3.9%
n=19
Apr
53%
+3.5%
n=19
May
53%
−0.5%
n=19
Jun
32%
−0.8%
n=19
Jul
58%
+2.8%
n=19
Aug
63%
+4.0%
n=19
Sep
32%
−2.3%
n=19
Oct
50%
−1.2%
n=18
Nov
72%
+10.7%
n=18
Dec
50%
+2.4%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$43$222026-07-09: 1 insider purchase, $100K — SANDFORT GREGORY A2026-07: 1 open-market purchase, $100K↑ buys↓ salesdirector SANDFORT GREGORY A — Purchase on 2026-07-09, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-09SANDFORT GREGORY AdirectorPurchase2,958 @ $33.80$100K+11.3% of holding−1.7%not yet — horizon still open29,172Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-05Fund 1 Investments, LLCtenPercentOwnerSale25,000 @ $23.26$582K−2.3% of holding−6.7%−8.6%1,072,850Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-28Fund 1 Investments, LLCtenPercentOwnerSale12,000 @ $20.73$249K−1.1% of holding−4.6%+18.8%1,097,850Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-27Fund 1 Investments, LLCtenPercentOwnerPurchase10,000 @ $22.48$225K+1.1% of holding−7.8%+18.9%953,109Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-20SANDFORT GREGORY AdirectorPurchase10,974 @ $22.92$252K+69.5% of holding−4.1%+31.9%26,754Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-17Ewoldsen Daniel EofficerSale4,000 @ $42.68$171K−8.8% of holding−3.6%−52.0%41,358Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

55 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-03Collins Jonathan M.officerAward / grant11,42411,424Form 4
2026-07-24Bojanowski CarolyndirectorAward / grant3,90519,006Form 4
2026-07-24Barsh JoannadirectorAward / grant3,90549,802Form 4
2026-07-24MARSHALL THURGOOD JRdirectorAward / grant3,90536,644Form 4
2026-07-24Lambros John FdirectorAward / grant3,90523,705Form 4
2026-07-24MARTINEZ ANGEL RdirectorAward / grant3,90524,250Form 4
2026-07-24Meixelsperger Mary EdirectorAward / grant3,90527,535Form 4
2026-07-24SANDFORT GREGORY AdirectorAward / grant3,90522,535Form 4
2026-07-24Bilunas Matthew MdirectorAward / grant3,90519,006Form 4
2026-06-26VAUGHN MIMI ECKELdirectorWithheld for tax4,847445,481Form 4
2026-06-26Desai ParagofficerWithheld for tax54797,450Form 4
2026-06-26Becker Scott EofficerWithheld for tax48666,672Form 4
2026-06-26Ewoldsen Daniel EofficerWithheld for tax37352,057Form 4
2026-06-26Randolph Ashley MarieofficerWithheld for tax577,822Form 4
2026-04-02VAUGHN MIMI ECKELdirectorWithheld for tax22,583375,496Form 4
2026-04-02Desai ParagofficerWithheld for tax2,18897,997Form 4
2026-04-02Gray AndrewofficerWithheld for tax2,14186,995Form 4
2026-04-02Becker Scott EofficerWithheld for tax1,94657,255Form 4
2026-04-02Ewoldsen Daniel EofficerWithheld for tax1,52744,749Form 4
2026-04-02VAUGHN MIMI ECKELdirectorAward / grant74,832450,328Form 4
2026-04-02Becker Scott EofficerAward / grant9,90367,158Form 4
2026-04-02Ewoldsen Daniel EofficerAward / grant7,68152,430Form 4
2026-04-02Gray AndrewofficerAward / grant37687,371Form 4
2026-02-05Gray AndrewofficerAward / grant34,57989,136Form 4
2026-02-01VAUGHN MIMI ECKELdirectorWithheld for tax6,179398,079Form 4
2026-02-01Gray AndrewofficerWithheld for tax3,85454,557Form 4
2026-02-01Desai ParagofficerWithheld for tax1,193100,185Form 4
2026-02-01Becker Scott EofficerWithheld for tax1,06259,201Form 4
2026-01-12Gray AndrewofficerWithheld for tax2,06058,411Form 4
2025-10-01HARRIS CASSANDRAofficerWithheld for tax1,29624,308Form 4
2025-06-27VAUGHN MIMI ECKELdirectorWithheld for tax8,619404,258Form 4
2025-06-27Desai ParagofficerWithheld for tax1,212101,378Form 4
2025-06-27Becker Scott EofficerWithheld for tax1,09160,263Form 4
2025-06-27Ewoldsen Daniel EofficerWithheld for tax73746,276Form 4
2025-06-26MARSHALL THURGOOD JRdirectorAward / grant5,39332,739Form 4
2025-06-26Meixelsperger Mary EdirectorAward / grant5,39323,630Form 4
2025-06-26MARTINEZ ANGEL RdirectorAward / grant5,39320,345Form 4
2025-06-26Lambros John FdirectorAward / grant5,39319,800Form 4
2025-06-26Bojanowski CarolyndirectorAward / grant5,39315,101Form 4
2025-06-26Bilunas Matthew MdirectorAward / grant5,39315,101Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Donna ShalalaHousesale2020-04-272019-02-06$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.