GCMG · TickerCove

GCMGGCM Grosvenor Inc.Financial Services · Asset Managementas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $12.68 · now $12.68 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GCMG has typically landed between $11.03 and $14.37 — a range of −13.0% to +13.3% from the issuance price $12.68.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,893 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-02-05 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($12.68) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$12.68 · 71% of range

$9.34 low$14.05 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.0%

typical move · IQR 10.4%

−13.0%worst (p90)+13.3%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where GCMG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $12.68 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $12.68 (+0.0%)
typical $12.8 (+1.0%)
middle 50% $12.14–$13.46
90% range $11.03–$14.37

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,893 windows spanning 2019-02-05 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2022-05-17	−21.6%	−21.6%	+1.3%
2026-02-26	−19.8%	−19.8%	+0.0%
2022-05-27	−19.6%	−22.6%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-11-27	+45.6%	+0.0%	+48.0%
2020-11-25	+42.7%	−1.0%	+46.5%
2020-11-10	+42.2%	−3.9%	+42.2%

1,893 overlapping windows · 2019-02-05 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

43%

+1.4%

n=7

Feb

43%

+0.8%

n=7

Mar

25%

−2.3%

n=8

Apr

50%

+0.4%

n=8

May

63%

−2.0%

n=8

Jun

50%

−0.9%

n=8

Jul

75%

+3.7%

n=8

Aug

63%

+3.7%

n=8

Sep

75%

−0.3%

n=8

Oct

43%

+0.7%

n=7

Nov

71%

+0.8%

n=7

Dec

57%

+4.9%

n=7

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-16	Bentley Pamela L	officer	Sale	10,000 @ $12.68	$127K	−41.0% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	14,397	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-09-15	Bentley Pamela L	officer	Sale	40,000 @ $12.56	$503K	−62.1% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	24,397	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-03	SULLIVAN KATHLEEN PATRICIA	officer	Sale	15,037 @ $13.16	$198K	−25.1% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	44,795	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-09-02	SULLIVAN KATHLEEN PATRICIA	officer	Sale	24,963 @ $13.15	$328K	−29.4% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	59,832	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-27	Blanton Angela	director	Sale	1,906 @ $11.73	$22K	−4.0% of holding	−7.9%	+8.3%	45,699	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-26	Blanton Angela	director	Sale	39,278 @ $11.88	$466K	−45.2% of holding	−12.0%	+5.1%	47,605	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-17	Bentley Pamela L	officer	Sale	40,000 @ $11.62	$465K	−92.4% of holding	−1.0%	−4.9%	3,309	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-16	Bentley Pamela L	officer	Sale	40,000 @ $11.61	$464K	−48.0% of holding	−1.7%	−5.5%	43,309	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-06	LUTNICK HOWARD W	director	Sale	1,800,000	—	−100.0% of holding	−4.2%	−15.8%	0	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-06	LUTNICK HOWARD W	director	Sale	6,451,535	—	−100.0% of holding	−4.2%	−15.8%	0	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-06	LUTNICK HOWARD W	director	Sale	1,800,000	—	−100.0% of holding	−4.2%	−15.8%	0	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-10-06	LUTNICK HOWARD W	director	Sale	6,451,535	—	−100.0% of holding	−4.2%	−15.8%	0	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-12	SULLIVAN KATHLEEN PATRICIA	officer	Sale	6,000 @ $13.02	$78K	−9.1% of holding	−2.9%	−18.7%	60,195	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-02	Blanton Angela	director	Sale	13,902 @ $12.65	$176K	−100.0% of holding	−12.1%	−26.4%	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

224 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-15	Levin Jonathan Reisin	director	Withheld for tax	42,813	689,493	Form 4
2026-08-15	Pollock Frederick	officer	Withheld for tax	23,953	813,189	Form 4
2026-08-15	Levin Jonathan Reisin	director	Option exercise	91,305	0	Form 4
2026-08-15	Pollock Frederick	officer	Option exercise	60,870	0	Form 4
2026-08-15	Pollock Frederick	officer	Option exercise	60,870	837,142	Form 4
2026-08-15	Levin Jonathan Reisin	director	Option exercise	91,305	732,306	Form 4
2026-08-15	Levin Jonathan Reisin	director	Option exercise	91,305	732,306	Form 4
2026-08-15	Pollock Frederick	officer	Option exercise	60,870	837,142	Form 4
2026-08-15	Levin Jonathan Reisin	director	Option exercise	91,305	732,306	Form 4
2026-08-15	Pollock Frederick	officer	Option exercise	60,870	837,142	Form 4
2026-08-15	Pollock Frederick	officer	Option exercise	60,870	837,142	Form 4
2026-08-15	Levin Jonathan Reisin	director	Option exercise	91,305	732,306	Form 4
2026-06-30	HELFAND DAVID	director	Award / grant	7,216	49,145	Form 4
2026-06-30	Cornelli Francesca	director	Award / grant	5,996	52,231	Form 4
2026-06-30	SCOTT SAMUEL C III	director	Award / grant	5,996	123,853	Form 4
2026-06-30	Malkin Stephen	director	Award / grant	5,082	107,387	Form 4
2026-05-31	Levin Jonathan Reisin	director	Withheld for tax	45,085	641,001	Form 4
2026-05-31	Bentley Pamela L	officer	Withheld for tax	20,256	64,397	Form 4
2026-05-31	SULLIVAN KATHLEEN PATRICIA	officer	Withheld for tax	14,946	84,795	Form 4
2026-05-31	Pollock Frederick	officer	Withheld for tax	9,838	776,272	Form 4
2026-05-31	Bentley Pamela L	officer	Option exercise	16,161	16,163	Form 4
2026-05-31	Bentley Pamela L	officer	Option exercise	12,083	24,167	Form 4
2026-05-31	SULLIVAN KATHLEEN PATRICIA	officer	Option exercise	12,500	0	Form 4
2026-05-31	Pollock Frederick	officer	Option exercise	25,000	0	Form 4
2026-05-31	Levin Jonathan Reisin	director	Option exercise	50,000	100,000	Form 4
2026-05-31	Levin Jonathan Reisin	director	Option exercise	24,242	24,243	Form 4
2026-05-31	SULLIVAN KATHLEEN PATRICIA	officer	Option exercise	9,114	18,230	Form 4
2026-05-31	Levin Jonathan Reisin	director	Option exercise	25,000	0	Form 4
2026-05-31	SULLIVAN KATHLEEN PATRICIA	officer	Option exercise	12,121	12,122	Form 4
2026-05-31	Bentley Pamela L	officer	Option exercise	16,668	0	Form 4
2026-05-31	Bentley Pamela L	officer	Option exercise	16,161	72,570	Form 4
2026-05-31	Bentley Pamela L	officer	Option exercise	16,668	56,409	Form 4
2026-05-31	Bentley Pamela L	officer	Option exercise	16,161	72,570	Form 4
2026-05-31	Bentley Pamela L	officer	Option exercise	12,083	84,653	Form 4
2026-05-31	Bentley Pamela L	officer	Option exercise	16,668	56,409	Form 4
2026-05-31	Bentley Pamela L	officer	Option exercise	12,083	84,653	Form 4
2026-05-31	Levin Jonathan Reisin	director	Option exercise	25,000	611,844	Form 4
2026-05-31	Levin Jonathan Reisin	director	Option exercise	24,242	636,086	Form 4
2026-05-31	Levin Jonathan Reisin	director	Option exercise	50,000	686,086	Form 4
2026-05-31	Pollock Frederick	officer	Option exercise	25,000	786,110	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i