GBX · TickerCove

GBXThe Greenbrier Companies, Inc.Industrials · Railroadsas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $42.63 · now $42.63 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GBX has typically landed between $35.31 and $50.37 — a range of −17.2% to +18.2% from the issuance price $42.63.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($42.63) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$42.63 · 14% of range

$40.16 low$58.06 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.4%

typical move · IQR 14.4%

−17.2%worst (p90)+18.2%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where GBX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $42.63 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $42.63 (+0.0%)
typical $42.47 (-0.4%)
middle 50% $39.41–$45.54
90% range $35.31–$50.37

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2009-02-05	−67.4%	−67.4%	+4.0%
2009-02-04	−65.6%	−65.6%	+8.2%
2009-02-06	−64.5%	−68.6%	+0.0%
3 best
2009-03-31	+132.7%	+0.0%	+132.7%
2009-03-25	+128.2%	+0.0%	+128.2%
2009-03-20	+127.7%	+0.0%	+136.6%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

45%

−2.7%

n=20

Feb

70%

+5.7%

n=20

Mar

55%

−0.8%

n=20

Apr

35%

+4.8%

n=20

May

55%

+2.0%

n=20

Jun

55%

+0.3%

n=20

Jul

60%

+5.2%

n=20

Aug

35%

−3.4%

n=20

Sep

50%

+0.7%

n=20

Oct

45%

+2.1%

n=20

Nov

60%

+5.5%

n=20

Dec

55%

+0.3%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-13	Glenn William	officer	Sale	4,000 @ $48.15	$193K	−14.1% of holding	−6.4%	not yet — horizon still open	24,325	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-30	Krueger William J.	officer	Sale	6,000 @ $50.00	$300K	−9.2% of holding	+14.0%	−10.0%	59,262	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-08	Huffines James R	director	Purchase	2,500 @ $44.84	$112K	+21.9% of holding	+0.1%	+12.7%	13,909	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-07-11	Felton Wanda F	director	Sale	3,652 @ $54.31	$198K	−54.9% of holding	−17.5%	−21.6%	3,000	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-09	FARGO THOMAS B	director	Sale	3,727 @ $54.97	$205K	−63.5% of holding	−20.2%	−18.3%	2,141	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-01	Krueger William J.	officer	Sale	4,000 @ $48.00	$192K	−10.9% of holding	−4.9%	−9.9%	32,714	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-13	Krueger William J.	officer	Sale	2,000 @ $48.00	$96K	−5.2% of holding	−5.7%	−27.6%	36,714	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-04-01	Krueger William J.	officer	Sale	2,000 @ $50.98	$102K	−4.9% of holding	−14.9%	−27.8%	38,714	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03	Krueger William J.	officer	Sale	1,208 @ $55.52	$67K	−2.9% of holding	−2.2%	−23.4%	40,814	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03	Krueger William J.	officer	Sale	692 @ $54.12	$37K	−1.6% of holding	−2.2%	−23.4%	42,022	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-03	Krueger William J.	officer	Sale	100 @ $56.06	$6K	−0.2% of holding	−2.2%	−23.4%	40,714	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-03	Krueger William J.	officer	Sale	1,000 @ $63.70	$64K	−2.3% of holding	−9.6%	−33.0%	42,714	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-03	Krueger William J.	officer	Sale	1,000 @ $62.73	$63K	−2.2% of holding	−9.6%	−33.0%	43,714	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-14	Comstock Brian J	officer	Sale	25,000 @ $66.23	$1.7M	−40.9% of holding	−11.9%	−31.3%	36,095	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-02	Krueger William J.	officer	Sale	2,000 @ $61.13	$122K	−4.3% of holding	+3.1%	−14.1%	44,714	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

133 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-16	Teramoto Wendy L	director	Gift	313	37,225	Form 4
2026-07-14	Glenn William	officer	Discretionary	20,000	35,068	Form 4
2026-06-17	Donfris Michael J	officer	Withheld for tax	351	25,596	Form 4
2026-02-03	Teramoto Wendy L	director	Gift	294	37,538	Form 4
2026-01-07	Felton Wanda F	director	Option exercise	2,022	5,022	Form 4
2026-01-07	Garza Antonio O	director	Award / grant	3,465	27,196	Form 4
2026-01-07	Bobb Stevan B.	director	Option exercise	1,776	0	Form 4
2026-01-07	Teramoto Wendy L	director	Award / grant	3,465	37,832	Form 4
2026-01-07	Songer Jeffrey M	director	Option exercise	1,776	0	Form 4
2026-01-07	Felton Wanda F	director	Award / grant	2,772	7,794	Form 4
2026-01-07	Williams Kelly Marie	director	Award / grant	3,465	39,843	Form 4
2026-01-07	Williams Kelly Marie	director	Option exercise	2,528	0	Form 4
2026-01-07	Songer Jeffrey M	director	Option exercise	1,776	1,776	Form 4
2026-01-07	Songer Jeffrey M	director	Award / grant	3,465	5,241	Form 4
2026-01-07	Felton Wanda F	director	Award / grant	693	16,727	Form 4
2026-01-07	Felton Wanda F	director	Option exercise	506	17,233	Form 4
2026-01-07	Felton Wanda F	director	Option exercise	2,528	0	Form 4
2026-01-07	FARGO THOMAS B	director	Option exercise	2,528	30,510	Form 4
2026-01-07	FARGO THOMAS B	director	Award / grant	3,465	33,975	Form 4
2026-01-07	FARGO THOMAS B	director	Option exercise	2,528	0	Form 4
2026-01-07	Bobb Stevan B.	director	Option exercise	1,776	1,776	Form 4
2026-01-07	Bobb Stevan B.	director	Award / grant	3,465	5,241	Form 4
2026-01-07	Jack Graeme	director	Option exercise	2,528	46,454	Form 4
2026-01-07	Jack Graeme	director	Award / grant	3,465	49,919	Form 4
2026-01-07	Jack Graeme	director	Option exercise	2,528	0	Form 4
2026-01-07	Huffines James R	director	Option exercise	2,528	14,127	Form 4
2026-01-07	Huffines James R	director	Award / grant	3,465	17,592	Form 4
2026-01-07	Huffines James R	director	Option exercise	2,528	0	Form 4
2026-01-07	Huffines James R	director	Option exercise	2,528	14,127	Form 4
2026-01-07	Huffines James R	director	Award / grant	3,465	17,592	Form 4
2026-01-07	Huffines James R	director	Option exercise	2,528	0	Form 4
2026-01-07	Jack Graeme	director	Option exercise	2,528	46,454	Form 4
2026-01-07	Jack Graeme	director	Award / grant	3,465	49,919	Form 4
2026-01-07	Jack Graeme	director	Option exercise	2,528	0	Form 4
2026-01-07	Bobb Stevan B.	director	Option exercise	1,776	1,776	Form 4
2026-01-07	Bobb Stevan B.	director	Award / grant	3,465	5,241	Form 4
2026-01-07	Felton Wanda F	director	Option exercise	2,528	0	Form 4
2026-01-07	Songer Jeffrey M	director	Option exercise	1,776	1,776	Form 4
2026-01-07	Songer Jeffrey M	director	Award / grant	3,465	5,241	Form 4
2026-01-07	Williams Kelly Marie	director	Option exercise	2,528	0	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i