GBTG · TickerCove

GBTGGlobal Business Travel Group, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Travel Servicesas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $9.47 · now $9.47 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GBTG has typically landed between $7.74 and $11.10 — a range of −18.3% to +17.2% from the issuance price $9.47.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

1,438 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-11-23 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($9.47) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$9.47 · 99% of range

$4.97 low$9.51 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.3%

typical move · IQR 10.6%

−18.3%worst (p90)+17.2%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where GBTG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $9.47 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $9.47 (+0.0%)
typical $9.5 (+0.3%)
middle 50% $9–$10
90% range $7.74–$11.1

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,438 windows spanning 2020-11-23 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2022-05-17	−38.2%	−38.2%	+0.1%
2022-05-20	−37.6%	−37.6%	+1.0%
2022-05-13	−37.2%	−37.2%	+0.2%
3 best
2026-04-07	+72.1%	+0.0%	+73.0%
2026-04-08	+71.0%	+0.0%	+71.7%
2026-04-09	+68.4%	−0.2%	+69.0%

1,438 overlapping windows · 2020-11-23 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

−3.2%

n=6

Feb

50%

−3.6%

n=6

Mar

50%

−3.9%

n=6

Apr

67%

−1.4%

n=6

May

50%

+8.6%

n=6

Jun

83%

−2.2%

n=6

Jul

67%

+2.0%

n=6

Aug

67%

+5.9%

n=6

Sep

50%

−5.7%

n=6

Oct

20%

−3.1%

n=5

Nov

60%

+7.4%

n=5

Dec

67%

+7.1%

n=6

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-21	Bock Eric J.	officer	Sale	64,780 @ $9.46	$613K	−8.5% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	699,177	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-20	Bock Eric J.	officer	Sale	10,000 @ $9.46	$95K	−1.3% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	763,957	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-06	Crawley Andrew George	officer	Sale	332,662 @ $9.43	$3.1M	−32.2% of holding	+0.3%	not yet — horizon still open	699,176	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-05	Crawley Andrew George	officer	Sale	350,000 @ $9.43	$3.3M	−25.3% of holding	+0.2%	not yet — horizon still open	1,031,838	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-05	Williams Karen A	officer	Sale	20,000 @ $9.43	$189K	−3.5% of holding	+0.2%	not yet — horizon still open	548,257	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-12	Bock Eric J.	officer	Sale	90,886 @ $9.35	$850K	−10.5% of holding	−1.6%	not yet — horizon still open	773,956	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-11	Abbott Paul G	director	Sale	574,317 @ $9.35	$5.4M	−18.2% of holding	−1.6%	not yet — horizon still open	2,582,911	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-11	Bock Eric J.	officer	Sale	125,030 @ $9.36	$1.2M	−12.5% of holding	−1.6%	not yet — horizon still open	871,342	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-09	Konwiser Evan	officer	Sale	356,222 @ $9.34	$3.3M	−41.5% of holding	−2.2%	not yet — horizon still open	502,641	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-09	Abbott Paul G	director	Sale	216,523 @ $9.35	$2.0M	−6.4% of holding	−2.2%	not yet — horizon still open	3,157,228	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-09	Bock Eric J.	officer	Sale	200,000 @ $9.34	$1.9M	−16.7% of holding	−2.2%	not yet — horizon still open	996,372	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-08	Abbott Paul G	director	Sale	173,460 @ $9.36	$1.6M	−4.9% of holding	−1.5%	not yet — horizon still open	3,373,751	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-08	Williams Karen A	officer	Sale	10,000 @ $9.35	$94K	−1.6% of holding	−1.5%	not yet — horizon still open	596,157	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-05	Bush James Peter	director	Sale	17,500 @ $9.36	$164K	−12.7% of holding	−0.7%	not yet — horizon still open	120,526	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-05	Abbott Paul G	director	Sale	8,745 @ $9.36	$82K	−0.2% of holding	−0.7%	not yet — horizon still open	3,547,211	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-06-02	Bock Eric J.	officer	Sale	400,000 @ $9.36	$3.7M	−25.1% of holding	+2.0%	not yet — horizon still open	1,196,372	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-01	Bock Eric J.	officer	Sale	400,000 @ $9.34	$3.7M	−20.0% of holding	+2.1%	not yet — horizon still open	1,596,372	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-04	Thompson John David	officer	Sale	108,908 @ $9.34	$1.0M	−14.8% of holding	−4.7%	not yet — horizon still open	626,793	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-04	Thompson John David	officer	Sale	109,020 @ $5.74	$626K	−12.9% of holding	+1.4%	+53.8%	735,701	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-15	Thompson John David	officer	Sale	4,239 @ $7.86	$33K	−0.6% of holding	+1.8%	−36.5%	726,553	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-06	OHara Michael Gregory	director	Sale	517,130 @ $7.98	$4.1M	−2.5% of holding	−6.0%	−12.1%	19,964,270	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

107 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-01	Williams Karen A	officer	Withheld for tax	27,900	568,257	Form 4
2026-06-12	Bock Eric J.	officer	Gift	6,500	864,842	Form 4
2026-05-13	Ward Susan F	director	Award / grant	23,429	120,526	Form 4
2026-05-13	Joabar Raymond	director	Award / grant	23,429	120,526	Form 4
2026-05-13	OHara Michael Gregory	director	Award / grant	23,429	120,526	Form 4
2026-05-13	Bush James Peter	director	Award / grant	23,429	138,026	Form 4
2026-05-13	Winters Kathleen A	director	Award / grant	23,429	120,526	Form 4
2026-05-13	Drummond Alexander	director	Award / grant	23,429	79,284	Form 4
2026-05-13	Arzani Ugo	director	Award / grant	23,429	59,917	Form 4
2026-05-13	Al-Thani Faisal Saoud F.Q.	director	Award / grant	23,429	54,245	Form 4
2026-03-01	Abbott Paul G	director	Withheld for tax	199,032	3,642,196	Form 4
2026-03-01	Abbott Paul G	director	Withheld for tax	171,892	3,841,228	Form 4
2026-03-01	Abbott Paul G	director	Withheld for tax	86,240	3,555,956	Form 4
2026-03-01	Crawley Andrew George	officer	Withheld for tax	81,035	1,418,798	Form 4
2026-03-01	Crawley Andrew George	officer	Withheld for tax	73,668	1,499,833	Form 4
2026-03-01	Bock Eric J.	officer	Withheld for tax	67,845	2,027,317	Form 4
2026-03-01	Williams Karen A	officer	Withheld for tax	47,199	630,797	Form 4
2026-03-01	Huska Patricia Anne	officer	Withheld for tax	41,660	1,287,948	Form 4
2026-03-01	Thompson John David	officer	Withheld for tax	40,188	863,690	Form 4
2026-03-01	Thompson John David	officer	Withheld for tax	37,808	903,878	Form 4
2026-03-01	Crawley Andrew George	officer	Withheld for tax	36,960	1,381,838	Form 4
2026-03-01	Huska Patricia Anne	officer	Withheld for tax	35,979	1,329,608	Form 4
2026-03-01	Bock Eric J.	officer	Withheld for tax	30,945	1,996,372	Form 4
2026-03-01	Bock Eric J.	officer	Withheld for tax	30,839	2,095,162	Form 4
2026-03-01	Williams Karen A	officer	Withheld for tax	24,640	606,157	Form 4
2026-03-01	Konwiser Evan	officer	Withheld for tax	23,806	874,336	Form 4
2026-03-01	Konwiser Evan	officer	Withheld for tax	20,560	898,142	Form 4
2026-03-01	Thompson John David	officer	Withheld for tax	18,969	844,721	Form 4
2026-03-01	Huska Patricia Anne	officer	Withheld for tax	18,051	1,269,897	Form 4
2026-03-01	Konwiser Evan	officer	Withheld for tax	15,473	858,863	Form 4
2026-03-01	Williams Karen A	officer	Withheld for tax	11,051	677,996	Form 4
2026-03-01	Van Vliet Christopher	officer	Withheld for tax	6,586	193,284	Form 4
2026-03-01	Van Vliet Christopher	officer	Withheld for tax	6,017	199,870	Form 4
2026-03-01	Van Vliet Christopher	officer	Withheld for tax	3,791	189,493	Form 4
2026-02-20	Abbott Paul G	director	Award / grant	862,132	4,013,120	Form 4
2026-02-18	Van Vliet Christopher	officer	Award / grant	47,426	205,887	Form 4
2026-02-18	Williams Karen A	officer	Award / grant	246,323	689,047	Form 4
2026-02-18	Crawley Andrew George	officer	Award / grant	369,485	1,573,501	Form 4
2026-02-18	Pelant John Edward	officer	Award / grant	92,371	92,371	Form 4
2026-02-18	Huska Patricia Anne	officer	Award / grant	215,533	1,365,587	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i