GBFHGBank Financial Holdings Inc.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $19.62 · now $19.62 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GBFH has typically landed between $16.76 and $23.11 — a range of −14.6% to +17.8% from the issuance price $19.62.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,370 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-02-18 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($19.62) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where GBFH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $19.62 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$16.76worst · -14.6%$23.11best · +17.8%
  • now $19.62 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $19.81 (+1.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $18.86–$20.76
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $16.76–$23.11
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,370 windows spanning 2021-02-18 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2026-07-07−35.1%−35.1%+1.7%
2026-07-21−34.5%−35.7%+0.0%
2026-07-27−34.4%−34.9%+0.0%
3 best
2024-09-25+45.9%+0.0%+45.9%
2024-09-26+42.1%+0.0%+42.9%
2024-09-27+41.4%+0.0%+41.9%

1,370 overlapping windows · 2021-02-18 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
40%
+4.6%
n=5
Feb
40%
−0.6%
n=5
Mar
17%
−3.0%
n=6
Apr
83%
+3.8%
n=6
May
50%
+0.6%
n=6
Jun
50%
−0.8%
n=6
Jul
67%
−1.2%
n=6
Aug
33%
−1.5%
n=6
Sep
67%
+2.7%
n=6
Oct
40%
+4.9%
n=5
Nov
60%
+2.1%
n=5
Dec
80%
+8.6%
n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$42$192026-09-08: 1 insider purchase, $50K — Voinovich Michael C2026-08-05: 1 insider purchase, $526K — Griege Charles William Jr.2026-08-04: 5 insider purchases, $800K — Herbst Timothy P, NIGRO EDWARD MICHAEL, NEWGARD JEFFREY K, Nigro Todd Anthony …2026-08-03: 2 insider purchases, $418K — NEWGARD JEFFREY K …2026-06-05: 2 insider purchases, $812K — Griege Charles William Jr. …2026-03-03: 1 insider sale, $214K — Whicker Jeffery Ernest2026-03-02: 1 insider sale, $748K — Whicker Jeffery Ernest2026-02-25: 1 insider sale, $220K — Campbell Tara Allyce2025-11-11: 1 insider purchase, $833K — Griege Charles William Jr.2025-11-07: 4 insider purchases, $27K — NIGRO EDWARD MICHAEL …2025-11-03: 2 insider sales, $138K — Campbell Tara Allyce …2025-09-15: 1 insider sale, $221K — Levine Scot Michael2025-09-12: 1 insider sale, $92K — Levine Scot Michael2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $113K2025-09: 2 open-market sales, $313K2025-11: 5 open-market purchases, $860K2025-11: 2 open-market sales, $138K2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $220K2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $962K2026-06: 2 open-market purchases, $812K2026-08: 8 open-market purchases, $1.7M2026-09: 1 open-market purchase, $50K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Voinovich Michael C — Purchase on 2026-09-08, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Griege Charles William Jr. — Purchase on 2026-08-05, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Herbst Timothy P — Purchase on 2026-08-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector NIGRO EDWARD MICHAEL — Purchase on 2026-08-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer NEWGARD JEFFREY K — Purchase on 2026-08-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Nigro Todd Anthony — Purchase on 2026-08-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer NEWGARD JEFFREY K — Purchase on 2026-08-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer NEWGARD JEFFREY K — Purchase on 2026-08-03, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer NEWGARD JEFFREY K — Purchase on 2026-08-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Griege Charles William Jr. — Purchase on 2026-06-05, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Griege Charles William Jr. — Purchase on 2026-06-05, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Whicker Jeffery Ernest — Sale on 2026-03-03, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Whicker Jeffery Ernest — Sale on 2026-03-02, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Campbell Tara Allyce — Sale on 2026-02-25, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Griege Charles William Jr. — Purchase on 2025-11-11, filed 1 day after the tradedirector NIGRO EDWARD MICHAEL — Purchase on 2025-11-07, filed 5 days after the tradedirector NIGRO EDWARD MICHAEL — Purchase on 2025-11-07, filed 5 days after the tradedirector NIGRO EDWARD MICHAEL — Purchase on 2025-11-07, filed 5 days after the tradedirector NIGRO EDWARD MICHAEL — Purchase on 2025-11-07, filed 5 days after the tradeofficer Campbell Tara Allyce — Sale on 2025-11-03, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Campbell Tara Allyce — Sale on 2025-11-03, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Levine Scot Michael — Sale on 2025-09-15, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Levine Scot Michael — Sale on 2025-09-12, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-08Voinovich Michael CdirectorPurchase2,500 @ $20.00$50K+3.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open85,559Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-05Griege Charles William Jr.directorPurchase25,000 @ $21.03$526K+6.8% of holding−2.6%not yet — horizon still open393,289Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-04Herbst Timothy PdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $21.50$215K+3.2% of holding−6.7%not yet — horizon still open327,126Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-04NIGRO EDWARD MICHAELdirectorPurchase9,200 @ $21.51$198K+1.5% of holding−6.7%not yet — horizon still open628,830Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-04NEWGARD JEFFREY KofficerPurchase8,772 @ $21.54$189K+68.1% of holding−6.7%not yet — horizon still open21,661Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-04Nigro Todd AnthonydirectorPurchase5,000 @ $21.07$105K+1.8% of holding−6.7%not yet — horizon still open286,494Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-04NEWGARD JEFFREY KofficerPurchase4,293 @ $21.54$92K+68.0% of holding−6.7%not yet — horizon still open10,602Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-03NEWGARD JEFFREY KofficerPurchase12,889 @ $21.75$280Kownership Δ n/a−11.8%not yet — horizon still open12,889Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-03NEWGARD JEFFREY KofficerPurchase6,309 @ $21.75$137Kownership Δ n/a−11.8%not yet — horizon still open6,309Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-05Griege Charles William Jr.directorPurchase24,000 @ $29.00$696K+7.0% of holding+2.3%not yet — horizon still open368,289Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-06-05Griege Charles William Jr.directorPurchase4,000 @ $29.00$116K+3.5% of holding+2.3%not yet — horizon still open117,786Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-03Whicker Jeffery ErnestofficerSale7,125 @ $29.98$214K−34.6% of holding−6.4%−48.2%13,450Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-02Whicker Jeffery ErnestofficerSale24,875 @ $30.07$748K−64.9% of holding−6.3%−47.4%13,450Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-25Campbell Tara AllyceofficerSale7,000 @ $31.41$220K−45.5% of holding−12.0%−46.7%8,399Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-11Griege Charles William Jr.directorPurchase25,000 @ $33.30$833K+7.8% of holding+11.0%−30.4%344,289Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-07NIGRO EDWARD MICHAELdirectorPurchase200 @ $34.17$7K+1.3% of holding+3.5%−28.5%16,100Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-07NIGRO EDWARD MICHAELdirectorPurchase200 @ $34.10$7K+1.2% of holding+3.5%−28.5%16,700Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-07NIGRO EDWARD MICHAELdirectorPurchase200 @ $34.00$7K+1.2% of holding+3.5%−28.5%16,500Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-07NIGRO EDWARD MICHAELdirectorPurchase200 @ $33.99$7K+1.2% of holding+3.5%−28.5%16,300Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-03Campbell Tara AllyceofficerSale2,956 @ $35.77$106K−38.9% of holding−3.6%−26.9%4,644Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-03Campbell Tara AllyceofficerSale911 @ $35.09$32K−19.6% of holding−3.6%−26.9%3,733Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-15Levine Scot MichaelofficerSale5,650 @ $39.07$221K−100.0% of holding+4.3%−37.3%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-12Levine Scot MichaelofficerSale2,350 @ $39.29$92K−29.4% of holding+2.4%−34.7%5,650Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-05Fersdahl David JonofficerSale160 @ $37.83$6K−7.9% of holding−1.7%−22.7%1,867Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-04Fersdahl David JonofficerSale2,840 @ $37.81$107K−58.4% of holding+4.2%−24.0%2,027Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-13Sklar Alan CurtisdirectorSale814 @ $36.06$29K−0.2% of holding+5.4%−8.8%503,393Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-13Sklar Alan CurtisdirectorSale614 @ $36.00$22K−0.1% of holding+5.4%−8.8%504,437Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-13Sklar Alan CurtisdirectorSale140 @ $36.12$5K−0.0% of holding+5.4%−8.8%503,249Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-13Sklar Alan CurtisdirectorSale130 @ $36.01$5K−0.0% of holding+5.4%−8.8%504,207Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-13Sklar Alan CurtisdirectorSale100 @ $36.08$4K−0.0% of holding+5.4%−8.8%504,337Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-13Sklar Alan CurtisdirectorSale6 @ $36.13$217−0.0% of holding+5.4%−8.8%503,243Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-13Sklar Alan CurtisdirectorSale4 @ $36.07$144−0.0% of holding+5.4%−8.8%503,389Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-10NIGRO EDWARD MICHAELdirectorSale2,955 @ $39.60$117K−0.5% of holding−7.7%−21.9%620,914Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-10NIGRO EDWARD MICHAELdirectorSale1,284 @ $40.00$51K−0.2% of holding−7.7%−21.9%619,630Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-09NIGRO EDWARD MICHAELdirectorSale13,609 @ $39.07$532K−2.1% of holding−8.1%−24.8%633,869Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-09NIGRO EDWARD MICHAELdirectorSale8,576 @ $39.74$341K−1.4% of holding−8.1%−24.8%625,293Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-09NIGRO EDWARD MICHAELdirectorSale1,424 @ $40.00$57K−0.2% of holding−8.1%−24.8%623,869Form 4 · filed same day
2025-06-06NIGRO EDWARD MICHAELdirectorSale6,391 @ $39.07$250K−1.0% of holding−5.9%−23.2%647,478Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-29Finley Alfred LeedirectorSale2,116 @ $41.51$88K−2.1% of holding−15.7%−30.4%99,877Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-28Finley Alfred LeedirectorSale5,967 @ $41.53$248K−5.3% of holding−21.4%−34.7%106,026Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-28Finley Alfred LeedirectorSale4,033 @ $41.25$166K−3.8% of holding−21.4%−34.7%101,993Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-27Finley Alfred LeedirectorSale10,000 @ $42.55$426K−7.6% of holding−18.2%−37.3%122,294Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-27Finley Alfred LeedirectorSale10,000 @ $42.51$425K−8.2% of holding−18.2%−37.3%112,294Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-27Finley Alfred LeedirectorSale301 @ $42.60$13K−0.3% of holding−18.2%−37.3%111,993Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

65 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-09NEWGARD JEFFREY KofficerAward / grant20,00020,000Form 4
2026-07-07Herbst Timothy PdirectorAward / grant38225,379Form 4
2026-07-07Griege Charles William Jr.directorAward / grant336118,122Form 4
2026-07-07SIMS JAMES KdirectorAward / grant32710,568Form 4
2026-07-07Nigro Todd AnthonydirectorAward / grant31811,619Form 4
2026-07-07Herbst Timothy PdirectorAward / grant27925,658Form 4
2026-07-07HORNBUCKLE WILLIAMdirectorAward / grant30927,922Form 4
2026-07-07LEVER KATHRYN SdirectorAward / grant30945,399Form 4
2026-07-07Griege Charles William Jr.directorAward / grant270118,392Form 4
2026-07-07HORNBUCKLE WILLIAMdirectorAward / grant26228,184Form 4
2026-07-07LEVER KATHRYN SdirectorAward / grant26245,661Form 4
2026-07-07SIMS JAMES KdirectorAward / grant21210,780Form 4
2026-07-07Nigro Todd AnthonydirectorAward / grant15411,773Form 4
2026-03-04Whicker Jeffery ErnestofficerOption exercise28,00041,450Form 4
2026-03-04Whicker Jeffery ErnestofficerOption exercise28,00040,000Form 4
2026-03-03Whicker Jeffery ErnestofficerOption exercise7,12520,575Form 4
2026-03-03Whicker Jeffery ErnestofficerOption exercise7,12568,000Form 4
2026-03-02Whicker Jeffery ErnestofficerOption exercise24,87538,325Form 4
2026-03-02Whicker Jeffery ErnestofficerOption exercise24,87575,125Form 4
2026-02-26Campbell Tara AllyceofficerOption exercise13,00021,399Form 4
2026-02-26Campbell Tara AllyceofficerOption exercise13,00039,000Form 4
2026-02-25Campbell Tara AllyceofficerOption exercise9,76615,399Form 4
2026-02-25Campbell Tara AllyceofficerOption exercise9,76652,000Form 4
2026-01-06Voinovich Michael CdirectorAward / grant28082,249Form 4
2026-01-06SIMS JAMES KdirectorAward / grant20610,241Form 4
2026-01-06Herbst Timothy PdirectorAward / grant20624,997Form 4
2026-01-06LEVER KATHRYN SdirectorAward / grant19245,090Form 4
2026-01-06Griege Charles William Jr.directorAward / grant185113,786Form 4
2026-01-06Nigro Todd AnthonydirectorAward / grant18511,301Form 4
2026-01-06HORNBUCKLE WILLIAMdirectorAward / grant17827,613Form 4
2026-01-06Finley Alfred LeedirectorAward / grant14316,166Form 4
2025-12-18Nigro Todd AnthonydirectorAward / grant1,10011,116Form 4
2025-12-18Finley Alfred LeedirectorAward / grant1,10016,023Form 4
2025-12-18Whicker Jeffery ErnestofficerAward / grant1,90013,450Form 4
2025-12-18Griege Charles William Jr.directorAward / grant1,100113,601Form 4
2025-12-18LEVER KATHRYN SdirectorAward / grant1,10044,898Form 4
2025-12-18SIMS JAMES KdirectorAward / grant1,10010,035Form 4
2025-12-18DeCou Nancy MofficerAward / grant20,00027,101Form 4
2025-12-18Campbell Tara AllyceofficerAward / grant1,9005,633Form 4
2025-12-18NIGRO EDWARD MICHAELdirectorAward / grant20,000142,142Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.