GATXGATX CorporationIndustrials · Rental & Leasing Servicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $177.63 · now $177.63 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GATX has typically landed between $160.67 and $199.76 — a range of −9.5% to +12.5% from the issuance price $177.63.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($177.63) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where GATX has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $177.63 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$160.67worst · -9.5%$199.76best · +12.5%
  • now $177.63 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $180.19 (+1.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $171.37–$189.01
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $160.67–$199.76
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2009-02-05−44.2%−44.2%+4.9%
2009-02-06−40.4%−46.8%+0.0%
2009-02-04−40.0%−40.0%+6.2%
3 best
2009-03-05+50.2%−8.3%+50.3%
2009-03-09+49.5%+0.0%+64.0%
2009-03-06+48.9%−5.7%+54.6%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
60%
+1.4%
n=20
Feb
75%
+1.2%
n=20
Mar
60%
+2.1%
n=20
Apr
50%
+3.1%
n=20
May
55%
−0.2%
n=20
Jun
40%
−1.0%
n=20
Jul
55%
+1.1%
n=20
Aug
35%
−0.4%
n=20
Sep
50%
−1.8%
n=20
Oct
55%
+1.6%
n=20
Nov
75%
+5.6%
n=20
Dec
60%
+1.5%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$200$1502026-09-11: 3 insider sales, $444K — Phillips Geoffrey …2026-08-26: 1 insider sale, $180K — Doygun Eren2026-08-14: 1 insider sale, $343K — Sbragia John2026-08-05: 3 insider sales, $3.3M — Ellman Thomas A. …2026-08-03: 2 insider sales, $307K — Van Aken Jennifer …2026-02-20: 4 insider sales, $1.9M — Zmudka Robert, Young Jeffery R., Glassberg Brian L …2025-12-10: 2 insider sales, $295K — Van Aken Jennifer …2025-09-03: 4 insider sales, $2.1M — LYONS ROBERT C …2025-08-28: 1 insider sale, $354K — Phillips Geoffrey2025-08-22: 1 insider sale, $162K — Arvia Anne L2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $516K2025-09: 4 open-market sales, $2.1M2025-12: 2 open-market sales, $295K2026-02: 4 open-market sales, $1.9M2026-08: 7 open-market sales, $4.1M2026-09: 3 open-market sales, $444K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Phillips Geoffrey — Sale on 2026-09-11, filed same dayofficer Phillips Geoffrey — Sale on 2026-09-11, filed same dayofficer Phillips Geoffrey — Sale on 2026-09-11, filed same dayofficer Doygun Eren — Sale on 2026-08-26, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Sbragia John — Sale on 2026-08-14, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Ellman Thomas A. — Sale on 2026-08-05, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ellman Thomas A. — Sale on 2026-08-05, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Ellman Thomas A. — Sale on 2026-08-05, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Van Aken Jennifer — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Van Aken Jennifer — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Zmudka Robert — Sale on 2026-02-20, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Young Jeffery R. — Sale on 2026-02-20, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Glassberg Brian L — Sale on 2026-02-20, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Glassberg Brian L — Sale on 2026-02-20, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Van Aken Jennifer — Sale on 2025-12-10, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Van Aken Jennifer — Sale on 2025-12-10, filed 1 day after the tradedirector LYONS ROBERT C — Sale on 2025-09-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector LYONS ROBERT C — Sale on 2025-09-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector LYONS ROBERT C — Sale on 2025-09-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector LYONS ROBERT C — Sale on 2025-09-03, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Phillips Geoffrey — Sale on 2025-08-28, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Arvia Anne L — Sale on 2025-08-22, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-11Phillips GeoffreyofficerSale1,700 @ $177.12$301K−68.0% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open801Form 4 · filed same day
2026-09-11Phillips GeoffreyofficerSale500 @ $178.06$89K−62.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open301Form 4 · filed same day
2026-09-11Phillips GeoffreyofficerSale300 @ $179.51$54K−99.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open1Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-26Doygun ErenofficerSale1,000 @ $179.52$180K−15.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open5,323Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-14Sbragia JohnofficerSale1,900 @ $180.40$343K−21.7% of holding+1.2%not yet — horizon still open6,867Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-08-05Ellman Thomas A.officerSale9,452 @ $179.62$1.7M−18.0% of holding−1.7%not yet — horizon still open43,109Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-05Ellman Thomas A.officerSale8,641 @ $180.56$1.6M−20.0% of holding−1.7%not yet — horizon still open34,468Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-05Ellman Thomas A.officerSale107 @ $181.20$19K−0.3% of holding−1.7%not yet — horizon still open34,361Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-03Van Aken JenniferofficerSale1,372 @ $180.58$248K−18.0% of holding−4.3%not yet — horizon still open6,244Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-03Van Aken JenniferofficerSale328 @ $181.23$59K−5.3% of holding−4.3%not yet — horizon still open5,916Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-20Zmudka RobertofficerSale5,200 @ $192.61$1.0M−41.0% of holding−9.8%−21.9%7,493Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-20Young Jeffery R.officerSale2,595 @ $196.29$509K−25.2% of holding−9.8%−21.9%7,700Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-20Glassberg Brian LofficerSale1,126 @ $198.04$223K−12.5% of holding−9.8%−21.9%7,915Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-20Glassberg Brian LofficerSale874 @ $198.61$174K−11.0% of holding−9.8%−21.9%7,041Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-10Van Aken JenniferofficerSale1,600 @ $164.05$262K−20.7% of holding+4.3%−3.3%6,112Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-10Van Aken JenniferofficerSale200 @ $164.93$33K−3.3% of holding+4.3%−3.3%5,912Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-03LYONS ROBERT CdirectorSale9,556 @ $166.04$1.6M−15.1% of holding+0.8%+3.4%53,611Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-03LYONS ROBERT CdirectorSale2,936 @ $167.24$491K−5.5% of holding+0.8%+3.4%50,675Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-03LYONS ROBERT CdirectorSale100 @ $167.76$17K−0.2% of holding+0.8%+3.4%50,575Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-03LYONS ROBERT CdirectorSale43 @ $166.20$7K−0.1% of holding+0.8%+3.4%63,167Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-28Phillips GeoffreyofficerSale2,100 @ $168.74$354K−23.8% of holding+0.8%+3.9%6,740Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-22Arvia Anne LdirectorSale979 @ $165.35$162K−2.9% of holding+3.5%+11.2%33,077Form 4 · filed same day
2025-07-31Hillesland KevinofficerSale2,200 @ $152.59$336K−22.4% of holding+8.2%+9.9%7,606Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-12McManus JenniferofficerSale1,800 @ $154.92$279K−34.2% of holding−3.8%−5.1%3,468Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-10Ellman Thomas A.officerSale14,568 @ $157.33$2.3M−27.6% of holding−3.3%−8.9%38,190Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-10Ellman Thomas A.officerSale3,932 @ $157.91$621K−10.3% of holding−3.3%−8.9%34,258Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-03Titterton Paul FofficerSale12,000 @ $157.00$1.9M−53.4% of holding−3.4%−11.7%10,468Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-03Titterton Paul FofficerSale6,700 @ $156.04$1.0M−23.0% of holding−3.4%−11.7%22,468Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-06Adedoyin NiyiofficerSale3,525 @ $166.56$587K−38.2% of holding−1.0%−14.2%5,700Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-06Sbragia JohnofficerSale2,100 @ $166.64$350K−22.9% of holding−1.0%−14.2%7,051Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-06Adedoyin NiyiofficerSale1,841 @ $167.42$308K−32.3% of holding−1.0%−14.2%3,859Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-05Adedoyin NiyiofficerSale501 @ $166.11$83K−11.5% of holding−1.4%−13.2%3,859Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-05Young Jeffery R.officerSale293 @ $164.62$48K−3.8% of holding−1.4%−13.2%7,366Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-05Young Jeffery R.officerSale4 @ $165.81$663−0.1% of holding−1.4%−13.2%7,362Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-04Zmudka RobertofficerSale2,800 @ $163.56$458K−22.8% of holding+0.3%−12.8%9,493Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-04Zmudka RobertofficerSale2,000 @ $164.21$328K−21.1% of holding+0.3%−12.8%7,493Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

177 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-11Phillips GeoffreyofficerOption exercise2,5002,501Form 4
2026-09-11Phillips GeoffreyofficerOption exercise2,5000Form 4
2026-09-03Phillips GeoffreyofficerGift6,4721Form 4
2026-08-26Doygun ErenofficerOption exercise1,0006,323Form 4
2026-08-26Doygun ErenofficerOption exercise1,0000Form 4
2026-08-15Phillips GeoffreyofficerWithheld for tax706,473Form 4
2026-08-15Hillesland KevinofficerWithheld for tax707,212Form 4
2026-08-15Sbragia JohnofficerWithheld for tax476,820Form 4
2026-08-14Sbragia JohnofficerOption exercise1,9008,767Form 4
2026-08-14Sbragia JohnofficerOption exercise1,9000Form 4
2026-08-05Ellman Thomas A.officerOption exercise18,20052,561Form 4
2026-08-05Ellman Thomas A.officerOption exercise18,2000Form 4
2026-08-03Van Aken JenniferofficerOption exercise1,7007,616Form 4
2026-08-03REAM JAMES BdirectorAward / grant16449,470Form 4
2026-08-03Bausch Shelley JdirectorAward / grant1424,308Form 4
2026-08-03Holmes John McClain IIIdirectorAward / grant1424,464Form 4
2026-08-03WETHERBEE ROBERT SdirectorAward / grant1301,645Form 4
2026-08-03YOVOVICH PAUL GdirectorAward / grant13042,420Form 4
2026-08-03Arvia Anne LdirectorAward / grant11834,277Form 4
2026-08-03Aigotti DianedirectorAward / grant7019,904Form 4
2026-08-03Stanley Adam L.directorAward / grant289,430Form 4
2026-08-03Van Aken JenniferofficerOption exercise1,7000Form 4
2026-05-01REAM JAMES BdirectorAward / grant16949,306Form 4
2026-05-01YOVOVICH PAUL GdirectorAward / grant13642,289Form 4
2026-05-01Holmes John McClain IIIdirectorAward / grant1294,321Form 4
2026-05-01Bausch Shelley JdirectorAward / grant1284,165Form 4
2026-05-01Arvia Anne LdirectorAward / grant12434,159Form 4
2026-05-01WETHERBEE ROBERT SdirectorAward / grant1151,515Form 4
2026-05-01Aigotti DianedirectorAward / grant7119,833Form 4
2026-05-01Stanley Adam L.directorAward / grant309,401Form 4
2026-04-24WETHERBEE ROBERT SdirectorAward / grant7311,400Form 4
2026-04-24Bausch Shelley JdirectorAward / grant7314,037Form 4
2026-04-24Aigotti DianedirectorAward / grant73119,762Form 4
2026-04-24REAM JAMES BdirectorAward / grant73149,137Form 4
2026-04-24YOVOVICH PAUL GdirectorAward / grant73142,152Form 4
2026-04-24Stanley Adam L.directorAward / grant7319,371Form 4
2026-04-24Arvia Anne LdirectorAward / grant73134,034Form 4
2026-04-24Holmes John McClain IIIdirectorAward / grant7314,192Form 4
2026-02-23Van Aken JenniferofficerAward / grant2,2002,200Form 4
2026-02-23Young Jeffery R.officerAward / grant2,4002,400Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.