Issued 2026-09-16 at $9.33 · now $9.33 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GASS has typically landed between $7.89 and $11.81 — a range of −15.5% to +26.6% from the issuance price $9.33.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($9.33) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where GASS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $9.33 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $9.33 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $9.6 (+2.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $8.83–$10.38
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $7.89–$11.81
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-10-23 | −66.2% | −66.2% | +0.5% |
| 2008-10-24 | −65.1% | −66.4% | +0.0% |
| 2008-10-27 | −64.5% | −65.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2008-12-04 | +70.2% | −12.3% | +70.2% |
| 2022-05-06 | +69.6% | −5.0% | +69.6% |
| 2008-12-23 | +67.0% | +0.0% | +90.7% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Jolliffe Michael | director | Sale | 36,200 @ $9.25 | $335K | −39.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 54,500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Jolliffe Michael | director | Sale | 1,300 @ $9.21 | $12K | −1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 90,700 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
7 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-18 | Jolliffe Michael | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 67,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Jolliffe Michael | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 57,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Jolliffe Michael | director | Option exercise | 10,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-18 | Jolliffe Michael | director | Option exercise | 5,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-29 | Vafias Harry | director | Gift | 99,623 | 4,480,863 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-27 | Vafias Harry | director | Option exercise | 100,000 | 4,381,240 | Form 4 |
| 2026-04-27 | Vafias Harry | director | Option exercise | 100,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.