GAP · TickerCove

GAPThe Gap, Inc.as of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $20.17 · now $20.17 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GAP has typically landed between $15.91 and $25.67 — a range of −21.1% to +27.3% from the issuance price $20.17.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($20.17) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$20.17 · 18% of range

$18.35 low$28.67 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.0%

typical move · IQR 19.2%

−21.1%worst (p90)+27.3%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 1 sells · 1 member

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where GAP has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $20.17 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $20.17 (+0.0%)
typical $20.16 (-0.0%)
middle 50% $18.23–$22.09
90% range $15.91–$25.67

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-21	−63.2%	−63.2%	+0.0%
2020-03-04	−61.5%	−61.5%	+0.0%
2020-02-20	−58.7%	−58.7%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-05-07	+84.1%	−6.5%	+84.1%
2020-05-06	+71.7%	−3.3%	+71.7%
2020-05-05	+62.9%	−6.9%	+62.9%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

−0.2%

n=18

Feb

63%

+3.3%

n=19

Mar

53%

+0.7%

n=19

Apr

58%

+0.8%

n=19

May

37%

−3.8%

n=19

Jun

42%

−0.1%

n=19

Jul

58%

+3.6%

n=19

Aug

47%

+3.3%

n=19

Sep

21%

−2.3%

n=19

Oct

56%

+3.1%

n=18

Nov

67%

+7.8%

n=18

Dec

39%

−2.1%

n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-04-17	Gruber Julie	officer	Sale	5,302 @ $27.00	$143K	−8.3% of holding	−27.3%	not yet — horizon still open	58,414	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-04-10	Chan Eric Kayen	officer	Sale	12,441 @ $26.19	$326K	−35.2% of holding	−26.1%	not yet — horizon still open	22,903	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-04-10	Chan Eric Kayen	officer	Sale	936 @ $26.14	$24K	−4.1% of holding	−26.1%	not yet — horizon still open	21,967	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-04-08	FISHER JOHN J	tenPercentOwner	Sale	300,000 @ $25.40	$7.6M	−40.2% of holding	−14.2%	not yet — horizon still open	446,781	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-06	Thompson Amanda J	officer	Sale	23,212 @ $25.14	$583K	−20.9% of holding	−15.9%	not yet — horizon still open	88,016	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-04-06	Thompson Amanda J	officer	Sale	1,788 @ $25.14	$45K	−2.0% of holding	−15.9%	not yet — horizon still open	86,228	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-23	Gilligan Sarah	director	Sale	69,912 @ $25.00	$1.7M	−100.0% of holding	−2.8%	not yet — horizon still open	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-20	Barbeito Horacio	officer	Sale	113,684 @ $24.01	$2.7M	−49.7% of holding	+3.7%	not yet — horizon still open	115,024	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-19	O'Connell Katrina	officer	Sale	8,486 @ $23.74	$201K	−42.5% of holding	+6.3%	not yet — horizon still open	11,503	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-19	Breitbard Mark	officer	Sale	8,486 @ $23.73	$201K	−5.9% of holding	+6.3%	not yet — horizon still open	135,884	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-17	Breitbard Mark	officer	Sale	119,155 @ $23.80	$2.8M	−46.7% of holding	+5.3%	not yet — horizon still open	135,884	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-17	O'Connell Katrina	officer	Sale	119,155 @ $23.80	$2.8M	−91.2% of holding	+5.3%	not yet — horizon still open	11,503	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-17	Gruber Julie	officer	Sale	74,217 @ $23.85	$1.8M	−57.9% of holding	+5.3%	not yet — horizon still open	53,970	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-17	O'Connell Katrina	officer	Sale	34,258 @ $24.00	$822K	−20.8% of holding	+5.3%	not yet — horizon still open	130,658	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-16	O'Connell Katrina	officer	Sale	16,036 @ $23.74	$381K	−67.5% of holding	+6.4%	not yet — horizon still open	7,718	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-16	Breitbard Mark	officer	Sale	16,030 @ $23.74	$381K	−10.9% of holding	+6.4%	not yet — horizon still open	131,703	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-17	Gruber Julie	officer	Sale	30,000 @ $28.00	$840K	−44.5% of holding	−4.3%	−35.0%	37,395	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-12	FISHER WILLIAM SYDNEY	director	Sale	11,140 @ $26.81	$299K	−0.4% of holding	+0.2%	−27.1%	2,753,453	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-12-11	FISHER WILLIAM SYDNEY	director	Sale	88,860 @ $26.82	$2.4M	−3.1% of holding	+2.2%	−26.4%	2,764,593	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-11	FISHER JOHN J	tenPercentOwner	Sale	3,971 @ $27.04	$107K	−0.5% of holding	+2.2%	−26.4%	746,781	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-03	FISHER WILLIAM SYDNEY	director	Sale	400,000 @ $27.02	$10.8M	−12.3% of holding	−6.1%	−27.1%	2,853,453	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-01	FISHER ROBERT J	director	Sale	500,000 @ $27.45	$13.7M	−17.7% of holding	−7.5%	−33.4%	2,329,502	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-26	FISHER JOHN J	tenPercentOwner	Sale	250,000 @ $27.75	$6.9M	−25.0% of holding	−7.0%	−35.1%	750,752	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-11-25	Gruber Julie	officer	Sale	46,168 @ $27.00	$1.2M	−55.2% of holding	−4.1%	−32.2%	37,395	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-25	Gruber Julie	officer	Sale	15,905 @ $27.00	$429K	−29.8% of holding	−4.1%	−32.2%	37,395	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-25	Donohue Elisabeth B	director	Sale	3,000 @ $27.11	$81K	−75.0% of holding	−4.1%	−32.2%	1,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-24	FISHER ROBERT J	director	Sale	500,000 @ $22.90	$11.4M	−15.0% of holding	−0.1%	+13.0%	2,829,502	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-15	FISHER WILLIAM SYDNEY	director	Sale	200,000 @ $23.86	$4.8M	−5.8% of holding	−13.6%	−1.0%	3,253,453	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-16	Breitbard Mark	officer	Sale	51,385 @ $27.00	$1.4M	−29.3% of holding	−23.9%	−24.2%	123,985	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-21	Barbeito Horacio	officer	Sale	40,764 @ $20.07	$818K	−99.2% of holding	+4.8%	−4.1%	308	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-19	Blakeslee Chris	officer	Sale	10,302 @ $19.47	$201K	−12.5% of holding	+2.4%	−1.7%	72,039	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-19	Breitbard Mark	officer	Sale	9,356 @ $19.47	$182K	−7.0% of holding	+2.4%	−1.7%	123,985	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-19	O'Connell Katrina	officer	Sale	8,503 @ $19.47	$166K	−100.0% of holding	+2.4%	−1.7%	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-19	Gilligan Sarah	director	Sale	3,644 @ $19.47	$71K	−100.0% of holding	+2.4%	−1.7%	0	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-18	Blakeslee Chris	officer	Sale	16,980 @ $19.58	$333K	−17.1% of holding	+1.2%	+1.9%	82,341	Form 4 · filed same day

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

265 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-15	Green Kristen	director	Award / grant	9,055	9,055	Form 4
2026-09-15	Gerson Jody	director	Award / grant	251	251	Form 4
2026-09-02	FISHER ROBERT J	director	Other acquisition	6,004,089	16,010,911	Form 4
2026-09-02	FISHER JOHN J	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	3,636	10,472,165	Form 4
2026-09-02	FISHER JOHN J	tenPercentOwner	Other acquisition	4,003,636	18,016,364	Form 4
2026-09-02	FISHER ROBERT J	director	Other acquisition	4,089	12,666,366	Form 4
2026-08-31	FISHER WILLIAM SYDNEY	director	Other acquisition	4,089	15,924,823	Form 4
2026-08-31	FISHER WILLIAM SYDNEY	director	Other acquisition	6,004,089	16,010,911	Form 4
2026-08-22	DICKSON RICHARD	director	Withheld for tax	62,852	790,555	Form 4
2026-08-22	DICKSON RICHARD	director	Withheld for tax	59,155	736,905	Form 4
2026-08-22	DICKSON RICHARD	director	Option exercise	116,502	853,407	Form 4
2026-08-22	DICKSON RICHARD	director	Option exercise	109,649	607,691	Form 4
2026-08-22	DICKSON RICHARD	director	Option exercise	116,502	491,189	Form 4
2026-08-22	DICKSON RICHARD	director	Option exercise	109,649	796,060	Form 4
2026-06-30	FISHER ROBERT J	director	Award / grant	1,283	2,509	Form 4
2026-06-30	FISHER ROBERT J	director	Award / grant	9,903	44,536	Form 4
2026-06-30	FISHER WILLIAM SYDNEY	director	Award / grant	1,283	2,509	Form 4
2026-06-30	FISHER WILLIAM SYDNEY	director	Award / grant	9,903	44,536	Form 4
2026-06-30	Gerson Jody	director	Award / grant	7,814	15,548	Form 4
2026-06-30	MILES AMY E	director	Award / grant	2,329	7,109	Form 4
2026-06-30	MILES AMY E	director	Award / grant	9,903	70,219	Form 4
2026-06-30	SHATTUCK MAYO A III	director	Option exercise	1,743	181,082	Form 4
2026-06-30	SHATTUCK MAYO A III	director	Option exercise	19,036	200,118	Form 4
2026-06-30	SHATTUCK MAYO A III	director	Award / grant	1,283	2,509	Form 4
2026-06-30	SHATTUCK MAYO A III	director	Option exercise	1,744	765	Form 4
2026-06-30	SHATTUCK MAYO A III	director	Award / grant	9,903	44,536	Form 4
2026-06-30	SHATTUCK MAYO A III	director	Option exercise	19,036	25,500	Form 4
2026-06-30	Hall Kathryn A.	director	Option exercise	1,743	24,946	Form 4
2026-06-30	Hall Kathryn A.	director	Option exercise	19,036	43,982	Form 4
2026-06-30	Hall Kathryn A.	director	Award / grant	1,283	2,509	Form 4
2026-06-30	Hall Kathryn A.	director	Option exercise	1,744	765	Form 4
2026-06-30	Hall Kathryn A.	director	Award / grant	9,903	44,536	Form 4
2026-06-30	Hall Kathryn A.	director	Option exercise	19,036	25,500	Form 4
2026-06-30	Shaukat Tariq M	director	Option exercise	1,743	1,743	Form 4
2026-06-30	Shaukat Tariq M	director	Option exercise	19,036	20,779	Form 4
2026-06-30	Shaukat Tariq M	director	Award / grant	1,283	2,509	Form 4
2026-06-30	Shaukat Tariq M	director	Option exercise	1,744	765	Form 4
2026-06-30	Shaukat Tariq M	director	Award / grant	9,903	44,536	Form 4
2026-06-30	Shaukat Tariq M	director	Option exercise	19,036	25,500	Form 4
2026-06-30	O'Neill Chris	director	Option exercise	1,743	36,272	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iiDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks

Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

Member	Chamber	Type	Filed	Traded	Size
Andrew Garbarino	House	sale	2025-08-21	2025-08-21	$1–15K

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Seasonality · by month i