GABCGerman American Bancorp, Inc.Financial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $49.18 · now $49.18 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, GABC has typically landed between $44.71 and $54.92 — a range of −9.1% to +11.7% from the issuance price $49.18.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($49.18) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where GABC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $49.18 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$44.71worst · -9.1%$54.92best · +11.7%
  • now $49.18 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $49.5 (+0.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $47.11–$51.89
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $44.71–$54.92
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-11−29.7%−29.7%+0.6%
2020-02-21−28.7%−29.3%+0.0%
2020-02-13−28.2%−30.1%+0.0%
3 best
2021-02-12+41.2%+0.0%+41.2%
2021-02-11+38.6%+0.0%+38.6%
2021-02-10+37.5%−0.2%+37.5%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
50%
−0.7%
n=20
Feb
55%
+1.1%
n=20
Mar
45%
−0.2%
n=20
Apr
50%
−1.6%
n=20
May
75%
+1.8%
n=20
Jun
55%
+1.0%
n=20
Jul
70%
+5.0%
n=20
Aug
50%
+0.6%
n=20
Sep
45%
+0.1%
n=20
Oct
50%
+1.8%
n=20
Nov
70%
+4.6%
n=20
Dec
45%
+0.1%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$51$362026-09-15: 3 insider purchases, $34K — Bawel Zachary W, Seger Andrew M, Ryan Christina M2026-08-17: 4 insider purchases, $62K — Seger Andrew M, Ryan Christina M, Bawel Zachary W, KELLY JASON M2026-07-16: 5 insider purchases, $95K — Ryan Christina M, Seger Andrew M, Bawel Zachary W, KELLY JASON M …2026-06-15: 4 insider purchases, $4K — Ellspermann Susan J, Seger Andrew M, Bawel Zachary W, Ryan Christina M2026-05-15: 1 insider purchase, $1K — Seger Andrew M2026-04-15: 2 insider purchases, $2K — SHEIDLER JACK, Bawel Zachary W2026-03-17: 5 insider purchases, $8K — Seger Andrew M, Ryan Christina M, Ellspermann Susan J, SHEIDLER JACK …2026-02-15: 1 insider purchase, $1000 — Seger Andrew M2026-01-15: 3 insider purchases, $4K — Bawel Zachary W, SHEIDLER JACK, Ellspermann Susan J2025-12-15: 3 insider purchases, $4K — Ryan Christina M, Seger Andrew M, Ellspermann Susan J2025-11-15: 1 insider purchase, $1000 — Seger Andrew M2025-10-15: 4 insider purchases, $9K — Bawel Zachary W, SHEIDLER JACK, Ryan Christina M, Ellspermann Susan J2025-09-15: 5 insider purchases, $33K — Bawel Zachary W, Ellspermann Susan J, Seger Andrew M, SHEIDLER JACK …2025-08-15: 5 insider purchases, $100K — Seger Andrew M, SHEIDLER JACK, Bawel Zachary W, Ellspermann Susan J …2025-08: 6 open-market purchases, $133K2025-09: 5 open-market purchases, $33K2025-10: 4 open-market purchases, $9K2025-11: 1 open-market purchase, $10002025-12: 3 open-market purchases, $4K2026-01: 3 open-market purchases, $4K2026-02: 1 open-market purchase, $10002026-03: 5 open-market purchases, $8K2026-04: 2 open-market purchases, $2K2026-05: 1 open-market purchase, $1K2026-06: 4 open-market purchases, $4K2026-07: 5 open-market purchases, $95K2026-08: 4 open-market purchases, $62K2026-09: 3 open-market purchases, $34K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Bawel Zachary W — Purchase on 2026-09-15, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Seger Andrew M — Purchase on 2026-09-15, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Ryan Christina M — Purchase on 2026-09-15, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Seger Andrew M — Purchase on 2026-08-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Ryan Christina M — Purchase on 2026-08-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Bawel Zachary W — Purchase on 2026-08-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector KELLY JASON M — Purchase on 2026-08-17, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Ryan Christina M — Purchase on 2026-07-16, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Seger Andrew M — Purchase on 2026-07-16, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Bawel Zachary W — Purchase on 2026-07-16, filed 1 day after the tradedirector KELLY JASON M — Purchase on 2026-07-16, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Stokes Ronnie R — Purchase on 2026-07-16, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Ellspermann Susan J — Purchase on 2026-06-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Seger Andrew M — Purchase on 2026-06-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Bawel Zachary W — Purchase on 2026-06-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Ryan Christina M — Purchase on 2026-06-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Seger Andrew M — Purchase on 2026-05-15, filed 3 days after the tradedirector SHEIDLER JACK — Purchase on 2026-04-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Bawel Zachary W — Purchase on 2026-04-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Seger Andrew M — Purchase on 2026-03-17, filed same daydirector Ryan Christina M — Purchase on 2026-03-17, filed same daydirector Ellspermann Susan J — Purchase on 2026-03-17, filed same daydirector SHEIDLER JACK — Purchase on 2026-03-17, filed same daydirector Bawel Zachary W — Purchase on 2026-03-17, filed same daydirector Seger Andrew M — Purchase on 2026-02-15, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Bawel Zachary W — Purchase on 2026-01-15, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SHEIDLER JACK — Purchase on 2026-01-15, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Ellspermann Susan J — Purchase on 2026-01-15, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Ryan Christina M — Purchase on 2025-12-15, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Seger Andrew M — Purchase on 2025-12-15, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Ellspermann Susan J — Purchase on 2025-12-15, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Seger Andrew M — Purchase on 2025-11-15, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Bawel Zachary W — Purchase on 2025-10-15, filed 1 day after the tradedirector SHEIDLER JACK — Purchase on 2025-10-15, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Ryan Christina M — Purchase on 2025-10-15, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Ellspermann Susan J — Purchase on 2025-10-15, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Bawel Zachary W — Purchase on 2025-09-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Ellspermann Susan J — Purchase on 2025-09-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Seger Andrew M — Purchase on 2025-09-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector SHEIDLER JACK — Purchase on 2025-09-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Ryan Christina M — Purchase on 2025-09-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Seger Andrew M — Purchase on 2025-08-15, filed 4 days after the tradedirector SHEIDLER JACK — Purchase on 2025-08-15, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Bawel Zachary W — Purchase on 2025-08-15, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Ellspermann Susan J — Purchase on 2025-08-15, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Ryan Christina M — Purchase on 2025-08-15, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-09-15Bawel Zachary WdirectorPurchase401 @ $49.89$20K+1.5% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open27,215Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-15Seger Andrew MdirectorPurchase150 @ $49.89$8K+0.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open20,558Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-09-15Ryan Christina MdirectorPurchase124 @ $49.89$6K+0.6% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open19,733Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17Seger Andrew MdirectorPurchase391 @ $51.12$20K+2.0% of holding−1.0%not yet — horizon still open20,383Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17Ryan Christina MdirectorPurchase391 @ $51.12$20K+2.0% of holding−1.0%not yet — horizon still open19,497Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17Bawel Zachary WdirectorPurchase391 @ $51.12$20K+1.5% of holding−1.0%not yet — horizon still open26,666Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-17KELLY JASON MdirectorPurchase49 @ $51.12$2K+0.3% of holding−1.0%not yet — horizon still open15,555Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-16Ryan Christina MdirectorPurchase418 @ $47.84$20K+2.2% of holding+1.4%not yet — horizon still open19,106Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-16Seger Andrew MdirectorPurchase418 @ $47.84$20K+2.1% of holding+1.4%not yet — horizon still open19,992Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-16Bawel Zachary WdirectorPurchase418 @ $47.84$20K+1.6% of holding+1.4%not yet — horizon still open26,275Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-16KELLY JASON MdirectorPurchase418 @ $47.84$20K+2.8% of holding+1.4%not yet — horizon still open15,506Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-16Stokes Ronnie RdirectorPurchase314 @ $47.84$15K+3.8% of holding+1.4%not yet — horizon still open8,626Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-06-15Ellspermann Susan JdirectorPurchase22 @ $45.55$1K+0.2% of holding+10.0%not yet — horizon still open11,885Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-15Seger Andrew MdirectorPurchase22 @ $45.55$1K+0.1% of holding+10.0%not yet — horizon still open18,406Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-15Bawel Zachary WdirectorPurchase22 @ $45.55$1K+0.1% of holding+10.0%not yet — horizon still open24,689Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-15Ryan Christina MdirectorPurchase22 @ $45.55$1K+0.1% of holding+10.0%not yet — horizon still open17,520Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-15Seger Andrew MdirectorPurchase24 @ $41.84$1K+0.1% of holding+7.5%not yet — horizon still open18,368Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-04-15SHEIDLER JACKdirectorPurchase25 @ $43.58$1K+0.0% of holding−9.2%not yet — horizon still open66,930Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-04-15Bawel Zachary WdirectorPurchase23 @ $43.58$1000+0.1% of holding−9.2%not yet — horizon still open24,508Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-17Seger Andrew MdirectorPurchase52 @ $40.48$2K+0.3% of holding+3.7%+12.4%18,345Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-17Ryan Christina MdirectorPurchase49 @ $40.84$2K+0.3% of holding+3.7%+12.4%17,382Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-17Ellspermann Susan JdirectorPurchase49 @ $40.48$2K+0.4% of holding+3.7%+12.4%11,788Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-17SHEIDLER JACKdirectorPurchase25 @ $40.84$1K+0.0% of holding+3.7%+12.4%66,905Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-17Bawel Zachary WdirectorPurchase25 @ $40.48$1000+0.1% of holding+3.7%+12.4%24,485Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-15Seger Andrew MdirectorPurchase23 @ $43.64$1000+0.1% of holding−6.4%+5.6%18,278Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-01-15Bawel Zachary WdirectorPurchase49 @ $40.60$2K+0.2% of holding+9.2%+13.1%24,303Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-15SHEIDLER JACKdirectorPurchase25 @ $40.60$1K+0.0% of holding+9.2%+13.1%66,768Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-01-15Ellspermann Susan JdirectorPurchase25 @ $40.60$1K+0.2% of holding+9.2%+13.1%11,664Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-15Ryan Christina MdirectorPurchase48 @ $41.45$2K+0.3% of holding−4.4%−0.7%17,218Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-15Seger Andrew MdirectorPurchase27 @ $41.45$1K+0.1% of holding−4.4%−0.7%18,255Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-15Ellspermann Susan JdirectorPurchase24 @ $41.45$1K+0.2% of holding−4.4%−0.7%11,639Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-15Seger Andrew MdirectorPurchase26 @ $39.05$1000+0.1% of holding+4.1%+0.5%18,213Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-10-15Bawel Zachary WdirectorPurchase155 @ $38.97$6K+0.6% of holding+1.2%+7.7%24,092Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-15SHEIDLER JACKdirectorPurchase31 @ $38.97$1K+0.0% of holding+1.2%+7.7%66,629Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-15Ryan Christina MdirectorPurchase28 @ $38.97$1K+0.2% of holding+1.2%+7.7%17,052Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-10-15Ellspermann Susan JdirectorPurchase28 @ $38.97$1K+0.2% of holding+1.2%+7.7%11,538Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-15Bawel Zachary WdirectorPurchase490 @ $40.86$20K+2.1% of holding−4.5%−3.5%23,937Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-15Ellspermann Susan JdirectorPurchase223 @ $40.86$9K+2.0% of holding−4.5%−3.5%11,510Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-15Seger Andrew MdirectorPurchase51 @ $40.86$2K+0.3% of holding−4.5%−3.5%18,187Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-15SHEIDLER JACKdirectorPurchase50 @ $40.86$2K+0.1% of holding−4.5%−3.5%66,598Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-15Ryan Christina MdirectorPurchase2 @ $40.86$100+0.0% of holding−4.5%−3.5%17,023Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-15Seger Andrew MdirectorPurchase503 @ $39.74$20K+2.9% of holding+0.3%+5.6%18,125Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-15SHEIDLER JACKdirectorPurchase503 @ $39.74$20K+0.8% of holding+0.3%+5.6%66,441Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-15Bawel Zachary WdirectorPurchase503 @ $39.74$20K+2.2% of holding+0.3%+5.6%23,301Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-15Ellspermann Susan JdirectorPurchase503 @ $39.74$20K+4.7% of holding+0.3%+5.6%11,219Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-15Ryan Christina MdirectorPurchase503 @ $39.74$20K+3.1% of holding+0.3%+5.6%16,912Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-04Medley Diane BdirectorPurchase882 @ $37.95$33K+16.4% of holding+7.6%+5.6%6,252Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-15KELLY JASON MdirectorPurchase494 @ $40.49$20K+3.8% of holding−1.3%−12.0%13,559Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-15Ryan Christina MdirectorPurchase494 @ $40.49$20K+3.1% of holding−1.3%−12.0%16,408Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-15SHEIDLER JACKdirectorPurchase494 @ $40.49$20K+0.8% of holding−1.3%−12.0%65,938Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-15Ellspermann Susan JdirectorPurchase494 @ $40.49$20K+4.8% of holding−1.3%−12.0%10,716Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-07-15Bawel Zachary WdirectorPurchase494 @ $40.49$20K+2.2% of holding−1.3%−12.0%22,798Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-15SHEIDLER JACKdirectorPurchase48 @ $37.78$2K+0.1% of holding+2.6%−3.8%64,146Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-15Bawel Zachary WdirectorPurchase45 @ $37.78$2K+0.2% of holding+2.6%−3.8%21,006Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-15Ryan Christina MdirectorPurchase45 @ $37.78$2K+0.3% of holding+2.6%−3.8%14,616Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-15Stokes Ronnie RdirectorPurchase45 @ $37.78$2K+0.8% of holding+2.6%−3.8%5,746Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-15Ellspermann Susan JdirectorPurchase45 @ $37.78$2K+0.5% of holding+2.6%−3.8%8,924Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-20KELLY JASON MdirectorSale2,515 @ $39.55$99K−17.7% of holding−7.7%−14.6%11,673Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-15SHEIDLER JACKdirectorPurchase45 @ $39.70$2K+0.1% of holding−9.4%−13.9%64,005Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-15Ellspermann Susan JdirectorPurchase21 @ $39.70$850+0.2% of holding−9.4%−13.9%8,824Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

60 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-29McComb Gregory ScottdirectorAward / grant1,16816,568Form 4
2026-06-29Seger Andrew MdirectorAward / grant1,16819,574Form 4
2026-06-29Bawel Zachary WdirectorAward / grant1,16825,857Form 4
2026-06-29Curry AngeladirectorAward / grant1,1684,936Form 4
2026-06-29Ellspermann Susan JdirectorAward / grant1,16813,053Form 4
2026-06-29Fine Marc DdirectorAward / grant1,1684,865Form 4
2026-06-29Root M. DarrendirectorAward / grant1,16818,895Form 4
2026-06-29KELLY JASON MdirectorAward / grant1,16814,998Form 4
2026-06-29Wagler Tyson JdirectorAward / grant1,1682,466Form 4
2026-06-29Ryan Christina MdirectorAward / grant1,16818,688Form 4
2026-06-29Stokes Ronnie RdirectorAward / grant1,1688,310Form 4
2026-03-16Dauby D NeilofficerWithheld for tax1,83373,040Form 4
2026-03-16Dauby D NeilofficerWithheld for tax1,63774,873Form 4
2026-03-16Dauby D NeilofficerWithheld for tax1,41771,623Form 4
2026-03-16RUST BRADLEY MofficerWithheld for tax81384,854Form 4
2026-03-16RUST BRADLEY MofficerWithheld for tax76585,667Form 4
2026-03-16Jackson Amy DofficerWithheld for tax62318,300Form 4
2026-03-16RUST BRADLEY MofficerWithheld for tax57684,278Form 4
2026-03-16Jackson Amy DofficerWithheld for tax53018,923Form 4
2026-03-16Beckwith Michael FofficerWithheld for tax50923,220Form 4
2026-03-16Jackson Amy DofficerWithheld for tax47417,826Form 4
2026-03-04RUST BRADLEY MofficerAward / grant6,80086,432Form 4
2026-03-04Arnett Bradley CofficerAward / grant3,5709,572Form 4
2026-03-04Dauby D NeilofficerAward / grant12,46676,510Form 4
2026-03-04Powell Warren ScottofficerAward / grant3,17412,067Form 4
2026-03-04Schuler Vicki LofficerAward / grant68413,663Form 4
2026-03-04Jackson Amy DofficerAward / grant4,30719,453Form 4
2026-03-04Beckwith Michael FofficerAward / grant4,64723,729Form 4
2025-12-01McComb Gregory ScottdirectorGift1,41515,400Form 4
2025-07-11Bawel Zachary WdirectorCode W2,7482,748Form 4
2025-06-30Ellspermann Susan JdirectorAward / grant1,29810,222Form 4
2025-06-30Curry AngeladirectorAward / grant1,2983,715Form 4
2025-06-30SHEIDLER JACKdirectorAward / grant1,29865,444Form 4
2025-06-30Fine Marc DdirectorAward / grant1,2983,697Form 4
2025-06-30McComb Gregory ScottdirectorAward / grant1,29816,815Form 4
2025-06-30Medley Diane BdirectorAward / grant1,2987,275Form 4
2025-06-30Root M. DarrendirectorAward / grant1,29817,727Form 4
2025-06-30Ryan Christina MdirectorAward / grant1,29815,914Form 4
2025-06-30Wagler Tyson JdirectorAward / grant1,2982,502Form 4
2025-06-30KELLY JASON MdirectorAward / grant1,29813,065Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.