FWRGFirst Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Restaurantsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $10.43 · now $10.43 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FWRG has typically landed between $8.52 and $12.39 — a range of −18.3% to +18.8% from the issuance price $10.43.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,223 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-10-01 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($10.43) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where FWRG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $10.43 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$8.52worst · -18.3%$12.39best · +18.8%
  • now $10.43 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $10.35 (-0.8%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $9.52–$11.18
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $8.52–$12.39
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,223 windows spanning 2021-10-01 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2026-02-10−31.6%−31.6%+0.0%
2026-02-11−30.5%−30.5%+0.0%
2026-02-06−28.6%−31.8%+0.0%
3 best
2024-10-10+57.7%+0.0%+57.7%
2024-10-09+56.6%+0.0%+56.6%
2024-10-11+53.0%+0.0%+53.0%

1,223 overlapping windows · 2021-10-01 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
80%
+7.0%
n=5
Feb
40%
−2.6%
n=5
Mar
20%
−8.9%
n=5
Apr
80%
+6.9%
n=5
May
40%
−2.9%
n=5
Jun
40%
−1.9%
n=5
Jul
60%
+5.1%
n=5
Aug
80%
+2.5%
n=5
Sep
0%
−12.7%
n=5
Oct
75%
+7.2%
n=4
Nov
60%
+3.5%
n=5
Dec
20%
−7.9%
n=5

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$19$102026-03-17: 7 insider sales, $502K — Tomasso Christopher Anthony, HOPE H MELVILLE III, Wolszczak Jay Anthony, Eisenacher Matthew …2026-03-10: 7 insider sales, $855K — Tomasso Christopher Anthony, HOPE H MELVILLE III, Wolszczak Jay Anthony, Eisenacher Matthew …2026-01-22: 1 insider sale, $105K — Kussell William A2025-12-09: 1 insider sale, $105K — Kussell William A2025-09-08: 1 insider sale, $77.7M — ADVENT INTERNATIONAL, L.P.2025-08-13: 1 insider sale, $1.8M — Tomasso Christopher Anthony2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $90.3M2025-09: 1 open-market sale, $77.7M2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $105K2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $105K2026-03: 14 open-market sales, $1.4M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Tomasso Christopher Anthony — Sale on 2026-03-17, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer HOPE H MELVILLE III — Sale on 2026-03-17, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Wolszczak Jay Anthony — Sale on 2026-03-17, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Eisenacher Matthew — Sale on 2026-03-17, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Hartman Eric Richard — Sale on 2026-03-17, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Jones John Daniel — Sale on 2026-03-17, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Sorensen Laura Anne — Sale on 2026-03-17, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Tomasso Christopher Anthony — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer HOPE H MELVILLE III — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Wolszczak Jay Anthony — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Eisenacher Matthew — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Hartman Eric Richard — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Sorensen Laura Anne — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Jones John Daniel — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Kussell William A — Sale on 2026-01-22, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Kussell William A — Sale on 2025-12-09, filed 2 days after the tradedirector ADVENT INTERNATIONAL, L.P. — Sale on 2025-09-08, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Tomasso Christopher Anthony — Sale on 2025-08-13, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-03-17Tomasso Christopher AnthonydirectorSale25,062 @ $12.52$314K−2.6% of holding−9.0%−30.3%957,315Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-17HOPE H MELVILLE IIIofficerSale3,878 @ $12.52$49K−3.4% of holding−9.0%−30.3%111,787Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-17Wolszczak Jay AnthonyofficerSale3,161 @ $12.52$40K−1.4% of holding−9.0%−30.3%228,930Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-17Eisenacher MatthewofficerSale2,760 @ $12.52$35K−3.9% of holding−9.0%−30.3%67,223Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-17Hartman Eric RichardofficerSale1,819 @ $12.52$23K−0.7% of holding−9.0%−30.3%244,530Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-17Jones John DanielofficerSale1,697 @ $12.52$21K−2.0% of holding−9.0%−30.3%84,725Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-17Sorensen Laura AnneofficerSale1,697 @ $12.52$21K−0.7% of holding−9.0%−30.3%237,353Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-10Tomasso Christopher AnthonydirectorSale33,314 @ $12.59$419K−3.1% of holding−7.6%−23.1%1,054,145Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-10HOPE H MELVILLE IIIofficerSale7,358 @ $12.59$93K−6.0% of holding−7.6%−23.1%115,665Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-10Wolszczak Jay AnthonyofficerSale6,998 @ $12.59$88K−2.9% of holding−7.6%−23.1%232,091Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-10Eisenacher MatthewofficerSale6,070 @ $12.59$76K−8.0% of holding−7.6%−23.1%69,983Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-10Hartman Eric RichardofficerSale4,820 @ $12.59$61K−1.9% of holding−7.6%−23.1%246,349Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-10Sorensen Laura AnneofficerSale4,732 @ $12.59$60K−1.9% of holding−7.6%−23.1%239,050Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-10Jones John DanielofficerSale4,600 @ $12.59$58K−5.1% of holding−7.6%−23.1%86,422Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-22Kussell William AdirectorSale6,165 @ $17.00$105K−18.9% of holding−7.7%−36.4%26,402Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-09Kussell William AdirectorSale6,165 @ $17.00$105K−18.9% of holding−8.1%−36.7%26,402Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-08ADVENT INTERNATIONAL, L.P.directorSale4,400,000 @ $17.67$77.7M−45.4% of holding−16.2%−36.4%5,289,784Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-13Tomasso Christopher AnthonydirectorSale100,000 @ $18.00$1.8M−11.5% of holding−6.9%−18.5%766,432Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-08ADVENT INTERNATIONAL, L.P.directorSale5,000,000 @ $17.70$88.5M−34.0% of holding−3.3%−11.0%9,689,784Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-03ADVENT INTERNATIONAL, L.P.directorSale4,500,000 @ $14.70$66.2M−23.4% of holding+9.8%+3.4%14,689,784Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-14Tomasso Christopher AnthonydirectorSale41,346 @ $17.00$703K−4.6% of holding−15.1%−19.1%866,432Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-13Tomasso Christopher AnthonydirectorSale42,346 @ $17.00$720K−4.5% of holding−9.7%−14.6%907,778Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-12Jemley CharlesdirectorPurchase15,000 @ $16.50$248K+184.4% of holding−8.3%−12.0%23,134Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-12Tomasso Christopher AnthonydirectorSale42,039 @ $16.81$707K−9.7% of holding+8.3%−14.4%389,832Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-12HOPE H MELVILLE IIIofficerSale8,013 @ $16.81$135K−9.7% of holding+8.3%−14.4%74,302Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-12Wolszczak Jay AnthonyofficerSale5,743 @ $16.81$97K−13.2% of holding+8.3%−14.4%37,768Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-12Eisenacher MatthewofficerSale4,257 @ $16.81$72K−13.8% of holding+8.3%−14.4%26,649Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-12Hartman Eric RichardofficerSale3,916 @ $16.81$66K−5.3% of holding+8.3%−14.4%69,475Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-12Sorensen Laura AnneofficerSale3,675 @ $16.81$62K−5.2% of holding+8.3%−14.4%66,573Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-12Jones John DanielofficerSale3,554 @ $16.81$60K−8.2% of holding+8.3%−14.4%39,611Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

39 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-08Weisser Ashlee SuzanneofficerAward / grant26,59564,365Form 4
2026-05-21Solheim JosteindirectorAward / grant12,34531,601Form 4
2026-05-21Jemley CharlesdirectorAward / grant12,34544,278Form 4
2026-05-21Kussell William AdirectorAward / grant12,34538,747Form 4
2026-05-21Lilak StephaniedirectorAward / grant12,34539,361Form 4
2026-05-21Alvarez RalphdirectorAward / grant17,636440,471Form 4
2026-05-21Britt Irene ChangdirectorAward / grant12,34531,645Form 4
2026-05-21FLEISHER MICHAEL DdirectorAward / grant12,34529,297Form 4
2026-05-21Tipograph Rachel KdirectorAward / grant12,34521,647Form 4
2026-03-12Tomasso Christopher AnthonydirectorGift71,768982,377Form 4
2026-03-01Wolszczak Jay AnthonyofficerAward / grant36,115239,089Form 4
2026-03-01Hartman Eric RichardofficerAward / grant30,096251,169Form 4
2026-03-01Eisenacher MatthewofficerAward / grant28,08976,053Form 4
2026-03-01Sorensen Laura AnneofficerAward / grant30,096243,782Form 4
2026-03-01Jones John DanielofficerAward / grant30,09691,022Form 4
2026-03-01Tomasso Christopher AnthonydirectorAward / grant321,0271,087,459Form 4
2026-01-22Kussell William AdirectorOption exercise6,16532,567Form 4
2026-01-22Kussell William AdirectorOption exercise6,16586,320Form 4
2025-12-30Tipograph Rachel KdirectorAward / grant9,3029,302Form 4
2025-12-28Wolszczak Jay AnthonyofficerAward / grant139,323202,974Form 4
2025-12-28Sorensen Laura AnneofficerAward / grant125,798213,686Form 4
2025-12-28Hartman Eric RichardofficerAward / grant128,760221,073Form 4
2025-12-09Kussell William AdirectorOption exercise6,16592,485Form 4
2025-12-09Kussell William AdirectorOption exercise6,16532,567Form 4
2025-05-22Britt Irene ChangdirectorAward / grant8,79919,300Form 4
2025-05-22Lilak StephaniedirectorAward / grant8,79927,016Form 4
2025-05-22FLEISHER MICHAEL DdirectorAward / grant8,79916,952Form 4
2025-05-22Alvarez RalphdirectorAward / grant12,570422,835Form 4
2025-05-22Jemley CharlesdirectorAward / grant8,79931,933Form 4
2025-05-22Solheim JosteindirectorAward / grant8,79919,256Form 4
2025-05-22Kussell William AdirectorAward / grant8,79926,402Form 4
2025-04-10Tomasso Christopher AnthonydirectorAward / grant365,408950,124Form 4
2025-03-13Eisenacher MatthewofficerAward / grant21,31547,964Form 4
2025-03-13Wolszczak Jay AnthonyofficerAward / grant25,88363,651Form 4
2025-03-13HOPE H MELVILLE IIIofficerAward / grant48,721123,023Form 4
2025-03-13Hartman Eric RichardofficerAward / grant22,83892,313Form 4
2025-03-13Sorensen Laura AnneofficerAward / grant21,31587,888Form 4
2025-03-13Jones John DanielofficerAward / grant21,31560,926Form 4
2025-03-13Tomasso Christopher AnthonydirectorAward / grant194,884584,716Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.