FWRD · TickerCove

FWRDForward Air CorporationIndustrials · Integrated Freight & Logisticsas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $15.49 · now $15.49 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FWRD has typically landed between $10.45 and $20.20 — a range of −32.6% to +30.4% from the issuance price $15.49.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($15.49) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$15.49 · 33% of range

$8.31 low$30.23 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.2%

typical move · IQR 21.5%

−32.6%worst (p90)+30.4%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where FWRD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $15.49 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $15.49 (+0.0%)
typical $15.46 (-0.2%)
middle 50% $13.8–$17.12
90% range $10.45–$20.2

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2026-04-20	−64.0%	−64.0%	+1.4%
2026-04-21	−63.5%	−64.0%	+1.5%
2026-04-22	−63.3%	−63.5%	+3.0%
3 best
2025-04-08	+64.5%	+0.0%	+68.8%
2026-05-19	+63.9%	+0.0%	+65.7%
2026-05-20	+62.6%	−0.9%	+63.3%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

−1.8%

n=20

Feb

40%

−2.6%

n=20

Mar

55%

−0.8%

n=20

Apr

40%

−1.6%

n=20

May

55%

−0.5%

n=20

Jun

55%

+4.5%

n=20

Jul

65%

+5.2%

n=20

Aug

50%

−0.8%

n=20

Sep

35%

−3.1%

n=20

Oct

60%

+2.9%

n=20

Nov

70%

+4.4%

n=20

Dec

50%

+0.0%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2025-11-12	Cetus Capital VI, L.P.	tenPercentOwner	Sale	10,000 @ $22.38	$224K	−0.3% of holding	+14.1%	−69.6%	3,116,546	Form 4 · filed 97 days after the trade
2025-11-11	Cetus Capital VI, L.P.	tenPercentOwner	Sale	67,163 @ $21.71	$1.5M	−2.1% of holding	+16.6%	−66.9%	3,126,546	Form 4 · filed 98 days after the trade
2025-11-10	Cetus Capital VI, L.P.	tenPercentOwner	Sale	90,000 @ $21.55	$1.9M	−2.7% of holding	+19.7%	−69.0%	3,223,709	Form 4 · filed 99 days after the trade
2025-11-10	Cetus Capital VI, L.P.	tenPercentOwner	Sale	30,000 @ $22.66	$680K	−0.9% of holding	+19.7%	−69.0%	3,193,709	Form 4 · filed 99 days after the trade
2025-11-06	Cetus Capital VI, L.P.	tenPercentOwner	Sale	74,716 @ $21.85	$1.6M	−2.2% of holding	+20.2%	−60.9%	3,313,993	Form 4 · filed 103 days after the trade
2025-11-06	Cetus Capital VI, L.P.	tenPercentOwner	Sale	284 @ $22.39	$6K	−0.0% of holding	+20.2%	−60.9%	3,313,709	Form 4 · filed 103 days after the trade
2025-10-20	Cetus Capital VI, L.P.	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	215,000 @ $17.89	$3.8M	+6.8% of holding	+11.4%	+12.0%	3,378,709	Form 4 · filed 120 days after the trade
2025-10-20	Cetus Capital VI, L.P.	tenPercentOwner	Purchase	10,000 @ $18.86	$189K	+0.3% of holding	+11.4%	+12.0%	3,388,709	Form 4 · filed 120 days after the trade
2025-10-14	Cetus Capital VI, L.P.	tenPercentOwner	Sale	30,000 @ $21.42	$643K	−1.0% of holding	+2.4%	−8.1%	3,063,709	Form 4 · filed 126 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

59 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-18	Gorjanc Christine Marie	director	Award / grant	9,545	22,940	Form 4
2026-06-18	Svindland Paul C.	director	Award / grant	9,545	15,977	Form 4
2026-06-18	Boyles Dale W	director	Award / grant	9,545	22,940	Form 4
2026-04-29	Stewart Shawn	director	Withheld for tax	4,136	144,030	Form 4
2026-03-16	Stewart Shawn	director	Award / grant	18,692	148,166	Form 4
2026-03-16	Pierson Jamie G.	officer	Award / grant	5,732	91,884	Form 4
2026-03-15	Hance Michael L	officer	Withheld for tax	4,868	91,355	Form 4
2026-03-15	OSBORNE TIMOTHY R	officer	Withheld for tax	2,109	24,314	Form 4
2026-03-15	Hance Michael L	officer	Withheld for tax	869	90,486	Form 4
2026-03-15	OSBORNE TIMOTHY R	officer	Withheld for tax	483	23,831	Form 4
2026-02-19	Stewart Shawn	director	Withheld for tax	3,214	129,474	Form 4
2026-02-19	Pierson Jamie G.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,662	86,152	Form 4
2026-02-19	Brandt Eric Frederick	officer	Withheld for tax	1,057	15,970	Form 4
2026-02-19	Hance Michael L	officer	Withheld for tax	946	96,223	Form 4
2026-02-19	Smith Douglas James	officer	Withheld for tax	516	13,294	Form 4
2026-02-19	OSBORNE TIMOTHY R	officer	Withheld for tax	513	26,423	Form 4
2026-02-19	HERREN JESSICA L	officer	Withheld for tax	436	10,599	Form 4
2026-02-19	Faught James R.	officer	Withheld for tax	362	7,952	Form 4
2026-02-19	OSBORNE TIMOTHY R	officer	Award / grant	5,850	26,936	Form 4
2026-02-19	HERREN JESSICA L	officer	Award / grant	4,950	11,035	Form 4
2026-02-19	Brandt Eric Frederick	officer	Award / grant	8,999	17,027	Form 4
2026-02-19	Hance Michael L	officer	Award / grant	10,799	97,169	Form 4
2026-02-19	LORRAIN Jerome Jean-Pierre	director	Award / grant	10,799	22,167	Form 4
2026-02-19	Pierson Jamie G.	officer	Award / grant	20,698	87,814	Form 4
2026-02-19	Stewart Shawn	director	Award / grant	43,197	132,688	Form 4
2026-02-19	Faught James R.	officer	Award / grant	2,340	8,314	Form 4
2026-02-19	Smith Douglas James	officer	Award / grant	5,850	13,810	Form 4
2026-02-09	Hance Michael L	officer	Withheld for tax	225	86,370	Form 4
2026-02-09	OSBORNE TIMOTHY R	officer	Withheld for tax	111	21,086	Form 4
2025-12-12	Smith Douglas James	officer	Withheld for tax	243	7,960	Form 4
2025-11-18	HERREN JESSICA L	officer	Withheld for tax	148	6,085	Form 4
2025-07-11	LORRAIN Jerome Jean-Pierre	director	Award / grant	7,307	11,368	Form 4
2025-06-28	Faught James R.	officer	Withheld for tax	308	5,974	Form 4
2025-06-13	Svindland Paul C.	director	Award / grant	6,432	6,432	Form 4
2025-06-13	Gorjanc Christine Marie	director	Award / grant	6,432	13,395	Form 4
2025-06-13	Edwards Robert Leon Jr	director	Award / grant	6,432	6,883	Form 4
2025-06-13	Edwards Robert Leon Jr	director	Award / grant	6,963	13,846	Form 4
2025-06-13	ANDERSON CHARLES LEONARD	director	Award / grant	6,432	6,883	Form 4
2025-06-13	ANDERSON CHARLES LEONARD	director	Award / grant	6,963	13,846	Form 4
2025-06-13	Boyles Dale W	director	Award / grant	6,432	13,395	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i