FWONK · TickerCove

FWONKLiberty Media CorporationCommunication Services · Entertainmentas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $95.36 · now $95.36 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FWONK has typically landed between $85.67 and $106.31 — a range of −10.2% to +11.5% from the issuance price $95.36.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

3,046 overlapping 1 month windows · 2014-07-08 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($95.36) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$95.36 · 52% of range

$81.42 low$108.33 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.1%

typical move · IQR 8.8%

−10.2%worst (p90)+11.5%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where FWONK has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $95.36 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $95.36 (+0.0%)
typical $96.37 (+1.1%)
middle 50% $92.19–$100.54
90% range $85.67–$106.31

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,046 windows spanning 2014-07-08 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-13	−56.5%	−56.5%	+0.0%
2020-02-18	−55.5%	−55.9%	+0.9%
2020-02-21	−53.7%	−55.7%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-04-03	+43.6%	+0.0%	+47.2%
2020-04-07	+37.9%	+0.0%	+46.3%
2020-04-06	+37.0%	−3.6%	+41.0%

3,046 overlapping windows · 2014-07-08 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~13 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

50%

+0.3%

n=12

Feb

58%

+0.7%

n=12

Mar

42%

−0.4%

n=12

Apr

50%

−0.7%

n=12

May

58%

+2.0%

n=12

Jun

75%

+3.4%

n=12

Jul

58%

+3.9%

n=12

Aug

54%

+1.6%

n=13

Sep

31%

−0.1%

n=13

Oct

58%

+1.1%

n=12

Nov

58%

+3.5%

n=12

Dec

58%

+0.3%

n=12

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-06-15	Wilm Renee L	officer	Sale	11,597 @ $90.09	$1.0M	−42.7% of holding	+11.1%	not yet — horizon still open	15,590	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-27	CAREY CHASE	director	Sale	98,546 @ $90.27	$8.9M	−51.1% of holding	+4.6%	not yet — horizon still open	94,356	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-27	CAREY CHASE	director	Sale	1,454 @ $91.12	$132K	−0.7% of holding	+4.6%	not yet — horizon still open	192,902	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-30	MALONE JOHN C	director	Sale	250,000 @ $5.14	$1.3M	−50.0% of holding	−9.8%	not yet — horizon still open	250,000	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-17	CAREY CHASE	director	Sale	57,836 @ $96.76	$5.6M	−38.0% of holding	−9.2%	−19.6%	94,356	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-17	CAREY CHASE	director	Sale	25,700 @ $97.36	$2.5M	−14.4% of holding	−9.2%	−19.6%	152,192	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-16	CAREY CHASE	director	Sale	81,487 @ $95.78	$7.8M	−46.3% of holding	−9.0%	−16.2%	94,356	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-16	CAREY CHASE	director	Sale	2,013 @ $96.16	$194K	−1.1% of holding	−9.0%	−16.2%	175,843	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-12	CAREY CHASE	director	Sale	41,383 @ $102.50	$4.2M	−30.8% of holding	−7.5%	−20.7%	93,102	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-12	CAREY CHASE	director	Sale	39,623 @ $103.29	$4.1M	−22.8% of holding	−7.5%	−20.7%	134,485	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-10	CAREY CHASE	director	Sale	99,180 @ $102.48	$10.2M	−51.6% of holding	−10.3%	−19.4%	93,102	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-10	CAREY CHASE	director	Sale	9,941 @ $103.12	$1.0M	−4.9% of holding	−10.3%	−19.4%	192,282	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-07	Wilm Renee L	officer	Sale	6,524 @ $84.34	$550K	−18.6% of holding	−11.1%	−21.7%	28,633	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-07	Wilm Renee L	officer	Sale	4,676 @ $102.42	$479K	−18.2% of holding	−11.1%	−21.7%	21,037	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-09-12	Wendling Brian J	director	Sale	4,430 @ $102.00	$452K	−21.7% of holding	+3.5%	−14.7%	15,948	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-10	Wendling Brian J	director	Sale	5,021 @ $100.20	$503K	−23.9% of holding	+2.9%	−16.5%	15,948	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-08	Gilchrist Malcolm Ian Grant	director	Sale	898 @ $100.20	$90K	−33.5% of holding	+1.4%	−20.5%	1,781	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-27	Gilchrist Malcolm Ian Grant	director	Sale	868 @ $97.11	$84K	−32.8% of holding	+2.5%	−14.9%	1,781	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-25	Gilchrist Malcolm Ian Grant	director	Sale	3,885 @ $102.44	$398K	−100.0% of holding	−0.9%	−21.3%	0	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-12	Wong Andrea L	director	Sale	2,615 @ $97.06	$254K	−24.9% of holding	+3.4%	−20.3%	7,880	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-22	Wong Andrea L	director	Sale	1,200 @ $97.21	$117K	−10.3% of holding	+3.6%	−16.2%	10,495	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-05-22	Wong Andrea L	director	Sale	385 @ $76.27	$29K	−36.5% of holding	+3.6%	−16.2%	671	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-05-13	CAREY CHASE	director	Sale	100,000 @ $96.38	$9.6M	−51.8% of holding	−1.9%	−11.3%	93,102	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-12	CAREY CHASE	director	Sale	50,000 @ $94.60	$4.7M	−34.9% of holding	−0.1%	−9.3%	93,102	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-09	Wilm Renee L	officer	Sale	66,510 @ $95.25	$6.3M	−85.2% of holding	−4.3%	−12.6%	11,597	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-09	Wendling Brian J	director	Sale	9,500 @ $95.20	$904K	−61.3% of holding	−4.3%	−12.6%	6,003	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-09	Gilchrist Malcolm Ian Grant	director	Sale	1,303 @ $94.79	$124K	−100.0% of holding	−4.3%	−12.6%	0	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2024-12-16	MAFFEI GREGORY B	director	Sale	34,603 @ $71.52	$2.5M	−2.7% of holding	−3.3%	+9.5%	1,240,785	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2024-12-16	MAFFEI GREGORY B	director	Sale	860 @ $72.05	$62K	−0.1% of holding	−3.3%	+9.5%	1,275,388	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

271 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-27	CAREY CHASE	director	Option exercise	100,000	194,356	Form 4
2026-05-27	CAREY CHASE	director	Option exercise	100,000	574,331	Form 4
2026-03-05	Wilm Renee L	officer	Withheld for tax	7,791	27,187	Form 4
2026-03-05	Wendling Brian J	director	Withheld for tax	4,002	14,046	Form 4
2026-02-04	Wilm Renee L	officer	Award / grant	17,808	34,978	Form 4
2026-02-04	Wendling Brian J	director	Award / grant	9,127	18,048	Form 4
2025-12-17	CAREY CHASE	director	Option exercise	83,536	177,892	Form 4
2025-12-17	CAREY CHASE	director	Option exercise	83,536	0	Form 4
2025-12-16	CAREY CHASE	director	Option exercise	83,500	177,856	Form 4
2025-12-16	CAREY CHASE	director	Option exercise	83,500	83,536	Form 4
2025-12-15	MALONE EVAN DANIEL	director	Other acquisition	12,399	0	Form 4
2025-12-15	MALONE EVAN DANIEL	director	Other acquisition	2,819	0	Form 4
2025-12-15	CHANG DEREK	director	Other acquisition	538	0	Form 4
2025-12-15	CHANG DEREK	director	Other acquisition	52	0	Form 4
2025-12-15	BENNETT ROBERT R	director	Other acquisition	191,741	0	Form 4
2025-12-15	BENNETT ROBERT R	director	Other acquisition	399,160	0	Form 4
2025-12-15	BENNETT ROBERT R	director	Other acquisition	100,000	0	Form 4
2025-12-15	BENNETT ROBERT R	director	Other acquisition	859	0	Form 4
2025-12-15	BENNETT ROBERT R	director	Other acquisition	2,083	0	Form 4
2025-12-15	BENNETT ROBERT R	director	Other acquisition	5,626	0	Form 4
2025-12-15	BENNETT ROBERT R	director	Other acquisition	10,792	0	Form 4
2025-12-15	BENNETT ROBERT R	director	Other acquisition	114	0	Form 4
2025-12-15	BENNETT ROBERT R	director	Other acquisition	229	0	Form 4
2025-12-15	Gilchrist Malcolm Ian Grant	director	Other acquisition	132	0	Form 4
2025-12-15	Gilchrist Malcolm Ian Grant	director	Other acquisition	1,781	0	Form 4
2025-12-15	Gilchrist Malcolm Ian Grant	director	Other acquisition	103	0	Form 4
2025-12-15	Gilchrist Malcolm Ian Grant	director	Other acquisition	1,085	0	Form 4
2025-12-15	Gilchrist Malcolm Ian Grant	director	Other acquisition	1,141	0	Form 4
2025-12-15	Gilchrist Malcolm Ian Grant	director	Other acquisition	109	0	Form 4
2025-12-15	Gilchrist Malcolm Ian Grant	director	Other acquisition	1,162	0	Form 4
2025-12-15	Gilchrist Malcolm Ian Grant	director	Other acquisition	1,152	0	Form 4
2025-12-15	Gilchrist Malcolm Ian Grant	director	Other acquisition	1,435	0	Form 4
2025-12-15	Wong Andrea L	director	Other acquisition	1,563	0	Form 4
2025-12-15	Wong Andrea L	director	Other acquisition	1,435	0	Form 4
2025-12-15	Wilm Renee L	officer	Other acquisition	13,401	0	Form 4
2025-12-15	Wilm Renee L	officer	Other acquisition	2,210	0	Form 4
2025-12-15	Wilm Renee L	officer	Other acquisition	5,942	0	Form 4
2025-12-15	Wilm Renee L	officer	Other acquisition	16,434	0	Form 4
2025-12-15	Wilm Renee L	officer	Other acquisition	604	0	Form 4
2025-12-15	Wilm Renee L	officer	Other acquisition	4,295	0	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i