Issued 2026-09-16 at $23.46 · now $23.46 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FULT has typically landed between $20.82 and $27.15 — a range of −11.3% to +15.7% from the issuance price $23.46.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($23.46) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where FULT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $23.46 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $23.46 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $23.57 (+0.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $22.11–$25.03
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $20.82–$27.15
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-21 | −36.7% | −36.7% | +0.0% |
| 2020-03-05 | −32.1% | −32.1% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-11 | −31.4% | −31.4% | +0.4% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-07-10 | +54.6% | −7.8% | +54.6% |
| 2009-07-21 | +51.5% | +0.0% | +67.6% |
| 2009-07-09 | +49.7% | −9.9% | +49.7% |
5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Crutchfield Lisa | director | Sale | 4,100 @ $24.80 | $102K | −34.3% of holding | −3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,838 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Sargent Angela M | officer | Sale | 12,562 @ $24.84 | $312K | −8.6% of holding | −4.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 134,032 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-13 | Wenger E Philip | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $24.14 | $121K | −6.2% of holding | −2.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 75,477 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Myers Curtis J | director | Sale | 30,748 @ $21.26 | $654K | −12.1% of holding | −4.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 224,173 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-04-13 | Wenger E Philip | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $21.42 | $107K | −5.8% of holding | −9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 80,477 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-12 | Wenger E Philip | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $19.55 | $98K | −5.5% of holding | +14.0% | +18.0% | 85,477 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-12 | Wenger E Philip | director | Sale | 5,000 @ $19.28 | $96K | −5.2% of holding | −9.3% | +0.5% | 90,477 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Fiol Andrew B | officer | Purchase | 256 @ $19.30 | $5K | +0.5% of holding | −9.2% | +2.3% | 53,207 | Form 4 · filed 84 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Taylor Bernadette M | officer | Purchase | 164 @ $19.30 | $3K | +0.3% of holding | −9.2% | +2.3% | 63,897 | Form 4 · filed 88 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-25 | Wenger E Philip | director | Sale | 3,851 @ $18.41 | $71K | −100.0% of holding | +4.7% | +2.7% | 0 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-25 | Wenger E Philip | director | Sale | 1,149 @ $18.41 | $21K | −1.2% of holding | +4.7% | +2.7% | 95,477 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-06 | Fiol Andrew B | officer | Purchase | 249 @ $17.02 | $4K | +0.5% of holding | +7.6% | −4.0% | 52,458 | Form 4 · filed 181 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-05 | Taylor Bernadette M | officer | Purchase | 160 @ $17.02 | $3K | +0.3% of holding | +8.9% | −2.4% | 63,733 | Form 4 · filed 186 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-21 | Malhotra Atul | officer | Purchase | 1,100 @ $18.60 | $20K | +9720.7% of holding | −1.6% | −17.0% | 1,111 | Form 4 · filed 8 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-27 | Snyder Angela M | director | Sale | 13,322 @ $20.69 | $276K | −17.3% of holding | −3.6% | −15.3% | 63,682 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
176 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Schulz David S. | director | Award / grant | 2,840 | 2,840 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Kraemer Richard S | officer | Withheld for tax | 5,219 | 19,459 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Kraemer Richard S | officer | Option exercise | 14,019 | 24,678 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Kraemer Richard S | officer | Option exercise | 14,019 | 40,123 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Gremer Kevin C | officer | Withheld for tax | 803 | 3,157 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Gremer Kevin C | officer | Option exercise | 2,666 | 3,960 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | Gremer Kevin C | officer | Option exercise | 2,666 | 11,145 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | Mauriello Josephine E | officer | Withheld for tax | 420 | 7,647 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | Mauriello Josephine E | officer | Option exercise | 420 | 8,067 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | Mauriello Josephine E | officer | Option exercise | 420 | 11,370 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | Wenger E Philip | director | Gift | 8,000 | 575,919 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-06 | Kraemer Richard S | officer | Other acquisition | 136 | 10,576 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Craighead Carey Jennifer | director | Award / grant | 4,222 | 38,881 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Snyder Scott Andrew | director | Award / grant | 4,222 | 43,967 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Wenger E Philip | director | Award / grant | 4,222 | 4,222 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Wenger E Philip | director | Option exercise | 5,117 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Pergolin Antoinette M | director | Option exercise | 5,117 | 8,431 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Pergolin Antoinette M | director | Option exercise | 5,117 | 25,593 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Pergolin Antoinette M | director | Award / grant | 4,222 | 29,815 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Shirk Michael F | director | Option exercise | 5,117 | 25,038 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Shirk Michael F | director | Option exercise | 5,117 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Shirk Michael F | director | Award / grant | 4,222 | 4,222 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Wenger E Philip | director | Option exercise | 5,117 | 583,919 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | MOXLEY JAMES R III | director | Award / grant | 4,222 | 4,222 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | MOXLEY JAMES R III | director | Option exercise | 5,117 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | MOXLEY JAMES R III | director | Option exercise | 5,117 | 118,328 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | SPAIR RONALD H | director | Award / grant | 4,222 | 43,967 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Devine Denise L | director | Award / grant | 4,222 | 25,900 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Devine Denise L | director | Option exercise | 5,117 | 21,678 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Devine Denise L | director | Option exercise | 5,117 | 43,279 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Crutchfield Lisa | director | Award / grant | 4,222 | 43,967 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Myers Curtis J | director | Withheld for tax | 54,174 | 254,921 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Mueller Meg R | officer | Withheld for tax | 15,525 | 164,076 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Luddington Natasha R. | officer | Withheld for tax | 13,233 | 35,881 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Sargent Angela M | officer | Withheld for tax | 10,976 | 145,467 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Fiol Andrew B | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,766 | 68,441 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Taylor Bernadette M | officer | Withheld for tax | 9,475 | 77,468 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Malhotra Atul | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,600 | 19,524 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Cossetti Anthony | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,507 | 6,326 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Glover John J | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,369 | 4,087 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.