FULCFulcrum Therapeutics, Inc.Healthcare · Biotechnologyas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $3.79 · now $3.79 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FULC has typically landed between $2.33 and $5.70 — a range of −38.6% to +50.4% from the issuance price $3.79.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,778 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-07-18 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($3.79) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where FULC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $3.79 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$2.33worst · -38.6%$5.7best · +50.4%
  • now $3.79 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $3.83 (+1.1%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $3.14–$4.52
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $2.33–$5.7
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,778 windows spanning 2019-07-18 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2023-02-22−75.6%−75.6%+0.3%
2023-02-23−75.6%−75.6%+0.0%
2023-02-15−73.4%−73.4%+0.0%
3 best
2021-07-30+306.3%−0.4%+306.3%
2021-08-03+285.4%+0.0%+308.0%
2021-08-04+273.8%+0.0%+295.5%

1,778 overlapping windows · 2019-07-18 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
43%
+3.7%
n=7
Feb
43%
−4.0%
n=7
Mar
14%
−2.4%
n=7
Apr
29%
−9.7%
n=7
May
57%
+15.1%
n=7
Jun
29%
−9.8%
n=7
Jul
43%
+5.4%
n=7
Aug
50%
+37.2%
n=8
Sep
38%
−7.9%
n=8
Oct
14%
−9.8%
n=7
Nov
86%
+25.8%
n=7
Dec
100%
+18.8%
n=7

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$15$32026-07-17: 1 insider purchase, $179K — TANG KEVIN2026-07-16: 1 insider purchase, $415K — TANG KEVIN2026-07-15: 1 insider purchase, $382K — TANG KEVIN2026-07-14: 2 insider purchases, $463K — TANG KEVIN …2026-07-13: 1 insider purchase, $46K — TANG KEVIN2026-06-26: 1 insider sale, $66K — Ezekowitz Alan2026-02-02: 1 insider sale, $161K — Gould Robert J2026-01-02: 1 insider sale, $178K — Gould Robert J2025-12-15: 1 insider sale, $45K — Oltmans Curtis Gale2025-12-08: 3 insider sales, $58.4M — RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. …2025-11-19: 1 insider sale, $165K — Gould Robert J2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $165K2025-12: 4 open-market sales, $58.4M2026-01: 1 open-market sale, $178K2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $161K2026-06: 1 open-market sale, $66K2026-07: 6 open-market purchases, $1.5M↑ buys↓ salesdirector TANG KEVIN — Purchase on 2026-07-17, filed 3 days after the tradedirector TANG KEVIN — Purchase on 2026-07-16, filed 4 days after the tradedirector TANG KEVIN — Purchase on 2026-07-15, filed same daydirector TANG KEVIN — Purchase on 2026-07-14, filed 1 day after the tradedirector TANG KEVIN — Purchase on 2026-07-14, filed 1 day after the tradedirector TANG KEVIN — Purchase on 2026-07-13, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Ezekowitz Alan — Sale on 2026-06-26, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Gould Robert J — Sale on 2026-02-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Gould Robert J — Sale on 2026-01-02, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Oltmans Curtis Gale — Sale on 2025-12-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. — Sale on 2025-12-08, filed 2 days after the tradedirector RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. — Sale on 2025-12-08, filed 2 days after the tradedirector RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. — Sale on 2025-12-08, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Gould Robert J — Sale on 2025-11-19, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-17TANG KEVINdirectorPurchase50,945 @ $3.52$179K+0.7% of holding+1.3%not yet — horizon still open7,080,945Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-07-16TANG KEVINdirectorPurchase116,671 @ $3.56$415K+1.7% of holding+3.4%not yet — horizon still open7,030,000Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-07-15TANG KEVINdirectorPurchase107,377 @ $3.56$382K+1.6% of holding+1.2%not yet — horizon still open6,913,329Form 4 · filed same day
2026-07-14TANG KEVINdirectorPurchase75,952 @ $3.58$272K+1.1% of holding+0.9%not yet — horizon still open6,805,952Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-14TANG KEVINdirectorPurchase53,651 @ $3.56$191K+0.8% of holding+0.9%not yet — horizon still open6,730,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-07-13TANG KEVINdirectorPurchase12,966 @ $3.54$46K+0.2% of holding+1.4%not yet — horizon still open6,676,349Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-26Ezekowitz AlandirectorSale18,000 @ $3.65$66K−62.2% of holding−3.7%not yet — horizon still open10,927Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-02Gould Robert JdirectorSale15,000 @ $10.72$161K−3.2% of holding−20.6%−76.1%454,864Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-01-02Gould Robert JdirectorSale15,000 @ $11.87$178K−3.1% of holding−4.9%−75.5%469,864Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-15Oltmans Curtis GaleofficerSale3,452 @ $12.92$45K−25.2% of holding−21.7%−82.4%10,252Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-08RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P.directorSale2,706,397 @ $14.28$38.6M−30.6% of holding−23.3%−79.7%6,145,682Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-08RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P.directorSale1,377,020 @ $13.33$18.4M−13.5% of holding−23.3%−79.7%8,852,079Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-08RA CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P.directorSale91,722 @ $14.98$1.4M−1.5% of holding−23.3%−79.7%6,053,960Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-19Gould Robert JdirectorSale15,000 @ $11.03$165K−3.0% of holding+3.7%−56.1%484,864Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-08Tourangeau GregofficerSale498 @ $5.06$3K−3.4% of holding+25.5%+22.1%14,062Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

25 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-30Haviland KatedirectorAward / grant32,00032,000Form 4
2026-06-30Gould Robert JdirectorAward / grant32,00032,000Form 4
2026-06-30Ezekowitz AlandirectorAward / grant32,00032,000Form 4
2026-06-30Banks SonjadirectorAward / grant32,00032,000Form 4
2026-06-30Dorton KatinadirectorAward / grant32,00032,000Form 4
2026-06-30Hill ColindirectorAward / grant32,00032,000Form 4
2026-06-30GERAGHTY JAMES AdirectorAward / grant32,00032,000Form 4
2026-06-30King Rachel K.directorAward / grant32,00032,000Form 4
2026-04-23Lehrer-Graiwer JoshuadirectorAward / grant64,00064,000Form 4
2026-02-02Sapir AlexdirectorAward / grant650,000650,000Form 4
2026-02-02Musso Alan AdirectorAward / grant170,000170,000Form 4
2026-02-02Oltmans Curtis GaleofficerAward / grant170,000170,000Form 4
2026-02-02Tourangeau GregofficerAward / grant57,00057,000Form 4
2025-06-26Ezekowitz AlandirectorAward / grant36,00036,000Form 4
2025-06-26King Rachel K.directorAward / grant36,00036,000Form 4
2025-06-26Haviland KatedirectorAward / grant36,00036,000Form 4
2025-06-26GERAGHTY JAMES AdirectorAward / grant36,00036,000Form 4
2025-06-26Gould Robert JdirectorAward / grant36,00036,000Form 4
2025-06-26Hill ColindirectorAward / grant36,00036,000Form 4
2025-06-26Banks SonjadirectorAward / grant36,00036,000Form 4
2025-06-26Dorton KatinadirectorAward / grant36,00036,000Form 4
2025-01-24Tourangeau GregofficerAward / grant76,12076,120Form 4
2025-01-24Musso Alan AdirectorAward / grant285,000285,000Form 4
2025-01-24Sapir AlexdirectorAward / grant582,000582,000Form 4
2025-01-24Oltmans Curtis GaleofficerAward / grant225,000225,000Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.