FTVFortive CorporationTechnology · Hardware, Equipment & Partsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $55.30 · now $55.30 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FTV has typically landed between $49.55 and $60.94 — a range of −10.4% to +10.2% from the issuance price $55.30.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,544 overlapping 1 month windows · 2016-07-05 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($55.30) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where FTV has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $55.3 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$49.55worst · -10.4%$60.94best · +10.2%
  • now $55.3 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $55.31 (+0.0%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $52.72–$57.91
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $49.55–$60.94
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,544 windows spanning 2016-07-05 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−44.5%−44.5%+0.0%
2020-02-18−41.9%−41.9%+0.0%
2020-02-20−40.6%−41.3%+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-23+37.5%+0.0%+45.3%
2020-03-18+33.9%−6.8%+35.4%
2020-03-27+30.3%+0.0%+30.3%

2,544 overlapping windows · 2016-07-05 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$19.0B
market cap
$1.68
EPS (TTM)
37.1
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-29
next earnings
Revenue$5.1B
'20'25
Net income$579M
'20'25
Free cash flow$978M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr11.3%
'20'25
ROE · by yr9.0%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr0.50
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $55.30$54.12$71.18
  • DCF (intrinsic)$57.06
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$57.46
  • Analyst target · range $59.00–$70.00$66.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$55.30

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~11 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
60%
+1.9%
n=10
Feb
50%
+1.5%
n=10
Mar
60%
−2.2%
n=10
Apr
50%
−0.7%
n=10
May
50%
−0.3%
n=10
Jun
60%
+2.8%
n=10
Jul
60%
+1.9%
n=10
Aug
64%
+1.1%
n=11
Sep
45%
−0.7%
n=11
Oct
60%
−1.4%
n=10
Nov
90%
+5.9%
n=10
Dec
50%
−0.7%
n=10

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$64$472026-08-10: 1 insider sale, $533K — Underwood Peter C2026-05-04: 1 insider sale, $2.9M — Underwood Peter C2026-02-18: 1 insider sale, $416K — MITCHELL KATE2025-11-10: 1 insider sale, $3.0M — Underwood Peter C2025-10-31: 1 insider sale, $110K — Walker Stacey A.2025-08: 1 open-market purchase, $1.0M2025-10: 1 open-market sale, $110K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $3.0M2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $416K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $2.9M2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $533K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Underwood Peter C — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Underwood Peter C — Sale on 2026-05-04, filed 2 days after the tradedirector MITCHELL KATE — Sale on 2026-02-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Underwood Peter C — Sale on 2025-11-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Walker Stacey A. — Sale on 2025-10-31, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-10Underwood Peter CofficerSale8,662 @ $61.59$533K−9.9% of holding−8.2%not yet — horizon still open79,118Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-04Underwood Peter CofficerSale47,557 @ $60.81$2.9M−35.1% of holding−4.2%not yet — horizon still open87,780Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-18MITCHELL KATEdirectorSale7,131 @ $58.34$416K−18.3% of holding−0.8%−11.5%31,775Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-10Underwood Peter CofficerSale58,133 @ $51.28$3.0M−42.1% of holding+6.0%+6.5%80,075Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-10-31Walker Stacey A.officerSale2,192 @ $50.35$110K−3.6% of holding+5.8%+14.1%59,488Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-08-01Okerstrom Mark DofficerPurchase21,300 @ $47.03$1.0M+29.0% of holding−1.2%+3.1%94,622Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-05-15LICO JAMES AdirectorSale175,000 @ $72.40$12.7M−29.0% of holding−4.3%−19.1%428,585Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-12Underwood Peter CofficerSale14,327 @ $73.88$1.1M−21.7% of holding−6.3%−24.9%51,750Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-28McLaughlin Charles EofficerSale32,085 @ $78.86$2.5M−29.7% of holding−2.4%−29.2%76,126Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-28Walker Stacey A.officerSale3,002 @ $79.05$237K−6.6% of holding−2.4%−29.2%42,373Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-26Mulhall Christopher M.officerSale6,493 @ $79.95$519K−21.1% of holding−2.2%−28.6%24,283Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-26Walker Stacey A.officerSale5,688 @ $80.52$458K−10.8% of holding−2.2%−28.6%47,141Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-26Mulhall Christopher M.officerSale1,395 @ $80.12$112K−19.3% of holding−2.2%−28.6%5,815Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-02-24LICO JAMES AdirectorSale196,117 @ $80.38$15.8M−27.1% of holding−1.7%−27.7%528,851Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

262 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-24Okerstrom Mark DofficerAward / grant203,910Form 4
2026-07-10Okerstrom Mark DofficerAward / grant203,889Form 4
2026-07-06Underwood Peter CofficerAward / grant1313,936Form 4
2026-07-06Soroye OlumidedirectorAward / grant1111,953Form 4
2026-07-06Mulhall Christopher M.officerAward / grant66,419Form 4
2026-07-06Okerstrom Mark DofficerAward / grant43,869Form 4
2026-07-06Mulhall Christopher M.officerAward / grant21,708Form 4
2026-07-06Desjourdy AmeeofficerAward / grant11,065Form 4
2026-07-02Soroye OlumidedirectorWithheld for tax3,777254,186Form 4
2026-07-02Lassiter Wright IIIdirectorCode L425,761Form 4
2026-06-26Okerstrom Mark DofficerAward / grant213,869Form 4
2026-06-12Okerstrom Mark DofficerAward / grant213,848Form 4
2026-06-09Dubey SharmisthadirectorAward / grant3,30537,895Form 4
2026-06-09Hayes Rejji PdirectorAward / grant2,17534,326Form 4
2026-06-09Lassiter Wright IIIdirectorAward / grant1,92525,757Form 4
2026-06-09COMAS DANIEL LdirectorAward / grant3,35053,122Form 4
2026-06-09Desjourdy AmeeofficerAward / grant5,02049,670Form 4
2026-06-09Dubey SharmisthadirectorAward / grant4,89534,590Form 4
2026-06-09MITCHELL KATEdirectorAward / grant3,35035,125Form 4
2026-06-09Sargent Jeannine PdirectorAward / grant3,35027,754Form 4
2026-06-09Hayes Rejji PdirectorAward / grant3,35032,151Form 4
2026-06-09Moore Gregory J.directorAward / grant3,3505,470Form 4
2026-06-09Lassiter Wright IIIdirectorAward / grant3,35023,832Form 4
2026-05-29Okerstrom Mark DofficerAward / grant223,827Form 4
2026-05-15Okerstrom Mark DofficerAward / grant223,806Form 4
2026-05-11Okerstrom Mark DofficerAward / grant203,784Form 4
2026-05-04Underwood Peter CofficerOption exercise47,557135,337Form 4
2026-05-04Underwood Peter CofficerOption exercise47,5570Form 4
2026-05-01Okerstrom Mark DofficerAward / grant223,764Form 4
2026-04-17Okerstrom Mark DofficerAward / grant213,742Form 4
2026-03-27Underwood Peter CofficerAward / grant1513,923Form 4
2026-03-27Soroye OlumidedirectorAward / grant1311,942Form 4
2026-03-27Mulhall Christopher M.officerAward / grant76,336Form 4
2026-03-27Okerstrom Mark DofficerAward / grant43,358Form 4
2026-03-27Mulhall Christopher M.officerAward / grant21,690Form 4
2026-03-27Desjourdy AmeeofficerAward / grant11,064Form 4
2026-03-26Lassiter Wright IIIdirectorCode L520,482Form 4
2026-03-04Mulhall Christopher M.officerWithheld for tax44651,012Form 4
2026-03-04Mulhall Christopher M.officerWithheld for tax14916,807Form 4
2026-03-03Mulhall Christopher M.officerWithheld for tax93351,458Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'23 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'24 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'25 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2025-10-102025-09-22$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2025-10-102025-09-30$15–50K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2025-10-102025-09-12$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousesale2025-09-122025-08-26$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousesale2025-08-132025-07-10$1–15K
Lisa McclainHousepurchase2025-08-132025-06-17$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-07-092025-06-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-06-102025-05-19$1–15K
Thomas H. Kean JrHousesale2025-05-152025-04-10$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-05-122025-04-09$1–15K
Rob BresnahanHousepurchase2025-05-082025-04-08$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-03-062025-02-25$1–15K
Gilbert CisnerosHousepurchase2025-02-112025-01-07$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.