Issued 2026-09-16 at $19.97 · now $19.97 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FTRE has typically landed between $13.68 and $27.53 — a range of −31.5% to +37.8% from the issuance price $19.97.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
793 overlapping 1 month windows · 2023-06-20 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($19.97) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where FTRE has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $19.97 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $19.97 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $19.84 (-0.7%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $17.27–$22.4
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $13.68–$27.53
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 793 windows spanning 2023-06-20 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2025-03-17 | −51.3% | −51.3% | +0.0% |
| 2025-03-18 | −47.9% | −49.6% | +0.0% |
| 2025-03-12 | −47.5% | −47.5% | +0.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2025-08-01 | +83.3% | +0.0% | +83.3% |
| 2025-08-06 | +76.7% | −2.9% | +76.7% |
| 2025-11-19 | +76.7% | +0.0% | +76.7% |
793 overlapping windows · 2023-06-20 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~4 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
0%
−7.9%
n=3
Feb
33%
−10.9%
n=3
Mar
33%
−16.9%
n=3
Apr
33%
−1.4%
n=3
May
33%
−9.3%
n=3
Jun
67%
+6.6%
n=3
Jul
75%
+9.6%
n=4
Aug
25%
+9.3%
n=4
Sep
50%
−3.8%
n=4
Oct
33%
+2.6%
n=3
Nov
100%
+16.8%
n=3
Dec
67%
+14.3%
n=3
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Morais Mark A. | officer | Sale | 3,149 @ $16.85 | $53K | −3.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 81,794 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Russell Carrie Elizabeth | officer | Sale | 246 @ $16.85 | $4K | −9.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,384 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Morais Mark A. | officer | Sale | 4,892 @ $18.19 | $89K | −5.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 77,786 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-06 | Thakral Anshul | director | Sale | 55,882 @ $18.17 | $1.0M | −17.6% of holding | −0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 260,915 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Thakral Anshul | director | Sale | 55,975 @ $18.06 | $1.0M | −21.5% of holding | −0.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 204,940 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Thakral Anshul | director | Sale | 50,417 @ $19.28 | $972K | −13.7% of holding | −2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 316,797 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-05 | Thakral Anshul | director | Sale | 49,452 @ $19.03 | $941K | −11.9% of holding | −2.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 367,214 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | SANDERS MACHELLE | director | Sale | 9,700 @ $18.01 | $175K | −21.0% of holding | −7.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 36,399 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-10 | Morais Mark A. | officer | Sale | 4,674 @ $16.82 | $79K | −6.1% of holding | +5.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 71,365 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Morais Mark A. | officer | Sale | 4,866 @ $15.49 | $75K | −6.0% of holding | +14.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 76,039 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Mcconnell Jill G. | officer | Sale | 4,866 @ $15.49 | $75K | −5.8% of holding | +14.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 78,416 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Parks Robert | officer | Sale | 2,000 @ $13.44 | $27K | −8.9% of holding | +12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 20,389 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Morais Mark A. | officer | Sale | 1,804 @ $9.22 | $17K | −2.5% of holding | +3.5% | +99.0% | 69,899 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-16 | Mcconnell Jill G. | officer | Sale | 1,804 @ $9.22 | $17K | −2.4% of holding | +3.5% | +99.0% | 72,276 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Mcconnell Jill G. | officer | Sale | 2,531 @ $9.21 | $23K | −3.5% of holding | +4.1% | +74.4% | 69,796 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Mcconnell Jill G. | officer | Sale | 2,530 @ $8.93 | $23K | −3.4% of holding | +4.1% | +74.4% | 72,327 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Morais Mark A. | officer | Sale | 2,300 @ $9.21 | $21K | −3.3% of holding | +4.1% | +74.4% | 67,419 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Morais Mark A. | officer | Sale | 2,299 @ $8.93 | $21K | −3.2% of holding | +4.1% | +74.4% | 69,719 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Parks Robert | officer | Sale | 964 @ $9.21 | $9K | −4.1% of holding | +4.1% | +74.4% | 22,389 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-10 | Parks Robert | officer | Sale | 963 @ $8.93 | $9K | −4.0% of holding | +4.1% | +74.4% | 23,353 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Morais Mark A. | officer | Sale | 590 @ $14.11 | $8K | −1.0% of holding | −30.1% | +21.9% | 58,052 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Morais Mark A. | officer | Sale | 589 @ $13.65 | $8K | −1.0% of holding | −30.1% | +21.9% | 58,642 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Mcconnell Jill G. | officer | Sale | 441 @ $14.11 | $6K | −0.7% of holding | −30.1% | +21.9% | 59,574 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | Mcconnell Jill G. | officer | Sale | 440 @ $13.65 | $6K | −0.7% of holding | −30.1% | +21.9% | 60,015 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-16 | Parks Robert | officer | Sale | 7,338 @ $9.95 | $73K | −27.8% of holding | −4.7% | −2.0% | 19,046 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | Mcconnell Jill G. | officer | Sale | 3,156 @ $10.23 | $32K | −5.1% of holding | −3.2% | −11.1% | 58,770 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | Morais Mark A. | officer | Sale | 3,155 @ $10.23 | $32K | −5.2% of holding | −3.2% | −11.1% | 56,976 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | Hanson James S. | officer | Sale | 1,677 @ $10.23 | $17K | −8.1% of holding | −3.2% | −11.1% | 19,092 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | Parks Robert | officer | Sale | 592 @ $10.23 | $6K | −29.0% of holding | −3.2% | −11.1% | 1,450 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Russell Erin L | director | Purchase | 9,854 @ $10.15 | $100K | ownership Δ n/a | −9.6% | −3.9% | 9,854 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Morais Mark A. | officer | Sale | 4,886 @ $8.01 | $39K | −8.4% of holding | +31.5% | +31.9% | 52,975 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-19 | Mcconnell Jill G. | officer | Sale | 4,886 @ $8.01 | $39K | −8.2% of holding | +31.5% | +31.9% | 54,770 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-11 | NEUPERT PETER M | director | Purchase | 32,500 @ $6.26 | $203K | +49.5% of holding | +54.1% | +104.5% | 98,132 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-08 | NEUPERT PETER M | director | Purchase | 30,000 @ $6.79 | $204K | +84.2% of holding | +51.0% | +116.6% | 65,632 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-03 | Mcconnell Jill G. | officer | Sale | 3,130 @ $4.17 | $13K | −6.1% of holding | +7.5% | +160.4% | 48,344 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-03 | Morais Mark A. | officer | Sale | 3,130 @ $4.17 | $13K | −6.3% of holding | +7.5% | +160.4% | 46,549 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-03 | Hanson James S. | officer | Sale | 2,191 @ $4.17 | $9K | −12.8% of holding | +7.5% | +160.4% | 14,981 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-14 | Mcconnell Jill G. | officer | Sale | 1,210 @ $9.70 | $12K | −2.9% of holding | −40.6% | −12.5% | 40,467 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-14 | Morais Mark A. | officer | Sale | 1,207 @ $9.70 | $12K | −3.0% of holding | −40.6% | −12.5% | 38,672 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-14 | Hanson James S. | officer | Sale | 1,007 @ $9.70 | $10K | −9.6% of holding | −40.6% | −12.5% | 9,466 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-13 | Mcconnell Jill G. | officer | Sale | 261 @ $9.93 | $3K | −0.7% of holding | −43.0% | −14.5% | 37,394 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-13 | Morais Mark A. | officer | Sale | 203 @ $9.93 | $2K | −0.6% of holding | −43.0% | −14.5% | 35,596 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Mcconnell Jill G. | officer | Sale | 643 @ $9.98 | $6K | −1.7% of holding | −41.6% | −15.2% | 36,720 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Morais Mark A. | officer | Sale | 499 @ $9.98 | $5K | −1.4% of holding | −41.6% | −15.2% | 35,074 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-12 | Mcconnell Jill G. | officer | Sale | 540 @ $14.67 | $8K | −1.5% of holding | −27.5% | −53.8% | 35,335 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-12 | Morais Mark A. | officer | Sale | 424 @ $14.67 | $6K | −1.2% of holding | −27.5% | −53.8% | 34,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-10 | Morais Mark A. | officer | Sale | 773 @ $14.80 | $11K | −2.3% of holding | −26.6% | −58.4% | 33,214 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-10 | Mcconnell Jill G. | officer | Sale | 578 @ $14.80 | $9K | −1.7% of holding | −26.6% | −58.4% | 34,331 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-01-13 | Pike Thomas | director | Sale | 11,268 @ $18.04 | $203K | −6.6% of holding | −23.5% | −81.2% | 159,868 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
134 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Knoblauch Jason Fredrick | officer | Award / grant | 144,434 | 144,434 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Morais Mark A. | officer | Option exercise | 7,157 | 84,943 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Morais Mark A. | officer | Option exercise | 7,157 | 83,525 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Russell Carrie Elizabeth | officer | Option exercise | 850 | 14,475 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | Russell Carrie Elizabeth | officer | Option exercise | 850 | 2,630 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Morais Mark A. | officer | Option exercise | 11,313 | 82,678 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | Morais Mark A. | officer | Option exercise | 11,313 | 90,682 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Thakral Anshul | director | Option exercise | 416,666 | 416,666 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Thakral Anshul | director | Option exercise | 416,666 | 833,334 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Smith David Ross | director | Award / grant | 15,840 | 28,692 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Smith David Ross | director | Option exercise | 6,598 | 36,715 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Smith David Ross | director | Withheld for tax | 18,244 | 30,117 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | SANDERS MACHELLE | director | Option exercise | 38,817 | 46,099 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Russell Erin L | director | Option exercise | 38,817 | 72,617 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Russell Erin L | director | Option exercise | 38,817 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Russell Erin L | director | Award / grant | 12,852 | 12,852 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Sharbaugh William J | director | Award / grant | 12,852 | 33,768 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Ray Amrit | director | Option exercise | 38,817 | 52,453 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Ray Amrit | director | Option exercise | 38,817 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Ray Amrit | director | Award / grant | 12,852 | 12,852 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | NEUPERT PETER M | director | Award / grant | 12,852 | 12,852 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Pesicka Edward A | director | Option exercise | 38,817 | 52,453 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Pesicka Edward A | director | Option exercise | 38,817 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Pesicka Edward A | director | Award / grant | 12,852 | 12,852 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Smith David Ross | director | Option exercise | 38,817 | 48,361 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Smith David Ross | director | Option exercise | 38,817 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | Smith David Ross | director | Award / grant | 12,852 | 12,852 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | SANDERS MACHELLE | director | Option exercise | 38,817 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-10 | SANDERS MACHELLE | director | Award / grant | 12,852 | 12,852 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Morais Mark A. | officer | Option exercise | 11,006 | 80,905 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Morais Mark A. | officer | Option exercise | 11,006 | 101,995 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Mcconnell Jill G. | officer | Option exercise | 11,006 | 83,282 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Mcconnell Jill G. | officer | Option exercise | 11,006 | 140,841 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | NEUPERT PETER M | director | Option exercise | 148,536 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-14 | NEUPERT PETER M | director | Option exercise | 148,536 | 246,668 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Russell Erin L | director | Option exercise | 23,946 | 33,800 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-20 | Russell Erin L | director | Option exercise | 23,946 | 38,817 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Mcconnell Jill G. | officer | Option exercise | 4,284 | 74,080 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Mcconnell Jill G. | officer | Option exercise | 4,284 | 151,847 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-13 | Morais Mark A. | officer | Option exercise | 4,284 | 71,703 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.