Issued 2026-09-25 at $173.46 · now $173.46 (2026-09-25, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-25 close, FTNT has typically landed between $147.50 and $204.48 — a range of −15.0% to +17.9% from the issuance price $173.46.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,217 overlapping 1 month windows · 2009-11-18 – 2026-08-26 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Base rate up 53.7% (90% CI 51.5–55.9%, ≈1,391 obs). Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-25 issuance close ($173.46) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-26, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where FTNT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-25 close of $173.46 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $173.46 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $176.11 (+1.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $165.36–$186.87
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $147.5–$204.48
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-13 | −36.4% | −36.4% | +0.3% |
| 2020-02-18 | −36.0% | −36.6% | +0.0% |
| 2011-07-08 | −35.8% | −35.8% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-04-30 | +74.5% | +0.0% | +74.5% |
| 2026-05-01 | +72.5% | +0.0% | +72.5% |
| 2026-05-05 | +66.4% | +0.0% | +66.4% |
4,217 overlapping windows · 2009-11-18 – 2026-09-25 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 80 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$76.96
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 34.2× · n=80$88.59
- Analyst target · range $80.00–$186.00$109.50
- Current price · last close 2026-09-25$173.46
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~17 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-24 | Ohlgart Christiane | officer | Sale | 48 @ $180.00 | $9K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 10,345 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-15 | Whittle John | officer | Sale | 2,835 @ $168.74 | $478K | −2.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 96,987 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Whittle John | officer | Sale | 52,707 @ $165.43 | $8.7M | −34.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 98,145 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Whittle John | officer | Sale | 1,158 @ $166.02 | $192K | −1.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 96,987 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Ohlgart Christiane | officer | Sale | 387 @ $164.59 | $64K | −3.6% of holding | −7.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,393 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-08-03 | Xie Ken | director | Sale | 67,971 @ $163.08 | $11.1M | −0.1% of holding | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 53,020,477 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Xie Ken | director | Sale | 47,943 @ $163.91 | $7.9M | −0.1% of holding | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,972,534 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Xie Ken | director | Sale | 19,647 @ $160.82 | $3.2M | −0.0% of holding | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 53,095,798 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Xie Ken | director | Sale | 18,409 @ $160.14 | $2.9M | −0.0% of holding | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 53,115,445 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Xie Ken | director | Sale | 7,350 @ $161.82 | $1.2M | −0.0% of holding | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 53,088,448 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Xie Michael | director | Sale | 1,421 @ $163.12 | $232K | −0.0% of holding | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,919,160 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Xie Michael | director | Sale | 800 @ $163.98 | $131K | −0.0% of holding | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,918,360 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Xie Michael | director | Sale | 700 @ $160.36 | $112K | −0.0% of holding | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,920,781 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Xie Michael | director | Sale | 200 @ $161.75 | $32K | −0.0% of holding | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,920,581 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Xie Ken | director | Sale | 162 @ $164.49 | $27K | −0.0% of holding | −1.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,972,372 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Xie Michael | director | Sale | 2,337 @ $146.55 | $342K | −0.0% of holding | +11.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,924,306 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-03 | Xie Michael | director | Sale | 564 @ $147.71 | $83K | −0.0% of holding | +11.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,923,742 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-03 | Xie Michael | director | Sale | 464 @ $144.46 | $67K | −0.0% of holding | +11.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,927,053 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-03 | Xie Michael | director | Sale | 410 @ $145.72 | $60K | −0.0% of holding | +11.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,926,643 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-03 | Xie Michael | director | Sale | 132 @ $148.30 | $20K | −0.0% of holding | +11.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,923,610 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-02 | Xie Ken | director | Sale | 39,854 @ $144.29 | $5.8M | −0.1% of holding | +6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 53,063,642 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Xie Ken | director | Sale | 37,540 @ $146.36 | $5.5M | −0.1% of holding | +6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 53,013,281 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Xie Ken | director | Sale | 19,867 @ $143.43 | $2.8M | −0.0% of holding | +6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 53,103,496 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Xie Ken | director | Sale | 18,492 @ $148.24 | $2.7M | −0.0% of holding | +6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,980,999 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Xie Ken | director | Sale | 13,790 @ $147.37 | $2.0M | −0.0% of holding | +6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,999,491 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Xie Ken | director | Sale | 12,821 @ $145.04 | $1.9M | −0.0% of holding | +6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 53,050,821 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Xie Ken | director | Sale | 9,641 @ $142.37 | $1.4M | −0.0% of holding | +6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 53,123,363 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Xie Ken | director | Sale | 8,627 @ $148.94 | $1.3M | −0.0% of holding | +6.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,972,372 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Whittle John | officer | Sale | 86,820 @ $128.15 | $11.1M | −36.1% of holding | +15.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 153,919 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Whittle John | officer | Sale | 54,979 @ $128.74 | $7.1M | −35.7% of holding | +15.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 98,940 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Whittle John | officer | Sale | 4,216 @ $129.55 | $546K | −4.3% of holding | +15.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 94,724 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-20 | Ohlgart Christiane | officer | Sale | 238 @ $130.00 | $31K | −2.6% of holding | +11.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,824 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-14 | Ohlgart Christiane | officer | Sale | 756 @ $120.00 | $91K | −7.7% of holding | +21.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,062 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Ohlgart Christiane | officer | Sale | 238 @ $115.00 | $27K | −2.4% of holding | +22.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,818 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-07 | Ohlgart Christiane | officer | Sale | 756 @ $110.00 | $83K | −7.0% of holding | +31.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,056 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Ohlgart Christiane | officer | Sale | 596 @ $89.70 | $53K | −5.2% of holding | +61.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,812 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-04 | Xie Ken | director | Sale | 4,383 @ $89.12 | $391K | −0.0% of holding | +59.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,978,141 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Xie Michael | director | Sale | 2,028 @ $89.12 | $181K | −0.0% of holding | +59.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,927,580 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Xie Ken | director | Sale | 425 @ $88.09 | $37K | −0.0% of holding | +59.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,982,524 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Xie Ken | director | Sale | 410 @ $87.04 | $36K | −0.0% of holding | +59.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,982,949 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Xie Michael | director | Sale | 197 @ $88.09 | $17K | −0.0% of holding | +59.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,929,608 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Xie Michael | director | Sale | 190 @ $87.04 | $17K | −0.0% of holding | +59.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,929,805 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Xie Ken | director | Sale | 137 @ $89.61 | $12K | −0.0% of holding | +59.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,978,004 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-04 | Xie Michael | director | Sale | 63 @ $89.61 | $6K | −0.0% of holding | +59.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,927,517 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Ohlgart Christiane | officer | Sale | 507 @ $80.73 | $41K | −5.8% of holding | +7.6% | +94.7% | 8,247 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-02-02 | Xie Michael | director | Sale | 204,282 @ $81.64 | $16.7M | −2.0% of holding | +3.3% | +95.5% | 10,219,728 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Xie Michael | director | Sale | 129,378 @ $81.01 | $10.5M | −1.2% of holding | +3.3% | +95.5% | 10,424,010 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Xie Ken | director | Sale | 94,170 @ $81.72 | $7.7M | −0.2% of holding | +3.3% | +95.5% | 51,397,560 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Xie Ken | director | Sale | 80,392 @ $81.06 | $6.5M | −0.2% of holding | +3.3% | +95.5% | 51,491,730 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Xie Michael | director | Sale | 9,446 @ $82.28 | $777K | −0.1% of holding | +3.3% | +95.5% | 10,210,282 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-02 | Xie Ken | director | Sale | 1,175 @ $82.33 | $97K | −0.0% of holding | +3.3% | +95.5% | 51,396,385 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-04 | Ohlgart Christiane | officer | Sale | 110 @ $86.50 | $10K | −1.6% of holding | −1.4% | +17.7% | 6,724 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-03 | Xie Ken | director | Sale | 60,146 @ $87.33 | $5.3M | −0.1% of holding | −5.5% | −5.2% | 51,391,879 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Xie Ken | director | Sale | 57,868 @ $86.36 | $5.0M | −0.1% of holding | −5.5% | −5.2% | 51,452,025 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Xie Ken | director | Sale | 40,471 @ $85.50 | $3.5M | −0.1% of holding | −5.5% | −5.2% | 51,509,893 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Xie Michael | director | Sale | 1,642 @ $86.42 | $142K | −0.0% of holding | −5.5% | −5.2% | 10,493,222 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Xie Michael | director | Sale | 1,204 @ $87.35 | $105K | −0.0% of holding | −5.5% | −5.2% | 10,492,018 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-03 | Xie Michael | director | Sale | 700 @ $85.37 | $60K | −0.0% of holding | −5.5% | −5.2% | 10,494,864 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | Ohlgart Christiane | officer | Sale | 110 @ $98.45 | $11K | −1.7% of holding | −23.9% | −25.6% | 6,393 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-04 | Xie Michael | director | Sale | 387,223 @ $98.43 | $38.1M | −3.8% of holding | −24.3% | −29.4% | 9,805,833 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
235 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Whittle John | officer | Option exercise | 2,835 | 99,822 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | Whittle John | officer | Option exercise | 2,835 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Whittle John | officer | Option exercise | 53,865 | 150,852 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | Whittle John | officer | Option exercise | 53,865 | 2,835 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Hsieh Ming | director | Award / grant | 1,836 | 1,836 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Kan Derek T. | director | Award / grant | 1,836 | 1,836 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Napolitano Janet | director | Award / grant | 1,836 | 1,836 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | STAVRIDIS JAMES G. | director | Award / grant | 1,836 | 1,836 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | GOLDMAN KENNETH A | director | Award / grant | 1,836 | 1,836 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Sim Judith | director | Award / grant | 1,836 | 1,836 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | Hu Jean X. | director | Award / grant | 1,836 | 1,836 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Xie Ken | director | Option exercise | 155,000 | 53,133,854 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | Xie Ken | director | Option exercise | 155,000 | 306,470 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Xie Ken | director | Withheld for tax | 6,611 | 52,978,854 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Xie Michael | director | Withheld for tax | 3,185 | 9,921,481 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Whittle John | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,310 | 96,987 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Ohlgart Christiane | officer | Withheld for tax | 581 | 10,780 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Xie Ken | director | Option exercise | 4,558 | 52,983,190 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Xie Michael | director | Option exercise | 2,242 | 13,454 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Ohlgart Christiane | officer | Option exercise | 650 | 6,501 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Xie Michael | director | Option exercise | 2,242 | 9,923,366 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Xie Michael | director | Option exercise | 2,764 | 9,921,124 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Whittle John | officer | Option exercise | 1,608 | 3,217 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Xie Michael | director | Option exercise | 1,300 | 9,924,666 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Ohlgart Christiane | officer | Option exercise | 684 | 4,794 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Whittle John | officer | Option exercise | 1,827 | 98,159 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Xie Michael | director | Option exercise | 1,300 | 13,002 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Xie Ken | director | Option exercise | 6,260 | 52,978,632 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Whittle John | officer | Option exercise | 1,608 | 96,332 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Xie Michael | director | Option exercise | 2,764 | 5,527 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Whittle John | officer | Option exercise | 1,138 | 99,297 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Xie Ken | director | Option exercise | 2,275 | 22,754 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Xie Ken | director | Option exercise | 4,558 | 27,346 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Ohlgart Christiane | officer | Option exercise | 300 | 11,361 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Whittle John | officer | Option exercise | 1,827 | 10,961 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Xie Ken | director | Option exercise | 6,260 | 12,520 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Ohlgart Christiane | officer | Option exercise | 300 | 3,308 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Ohlgart Christiane | officer | Option exercise | 684 | 9,509 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Ohlgart Christiane | officer | Option exercise | 650 | 10,159 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Xie Ken | director | Option exercise | 2,275 | 52,985,465 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-25 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Dan Newhouse | House | sale | 2026-07-17 | 2026-07-10 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-05-11 | 2026-04-13 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-05-08 | 2026-04-14 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-17 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-24 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-05 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-13 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-23 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-12-08 | 2025-11-10 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-30 | $1–15K |
| Lisa Mcclain | House | sale | 2025-11-21 | 2025-10-31 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.