Issued 2026-09-17 at $9.54 · now $9.32 (2026-09-18, −2.3% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-17 close, FTLF has typically landed between $8.15 and $11.50 — a range of −14.5% to +20.6% from the issuance price $9.54.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,723 overlapping 1 month windows · 2007-11-02 – 2026-08-18 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,377 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-17 issuance close ($9.54) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-16, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where FTLF has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-17 close of $9.54 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $9.32 (-2.3%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $9.49 (-0.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $8.84–$10.15
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $8.15–$11.5
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-10-14 | −62.1% | −62.1% | +0.0% |
| 2008-10-08 | −60.0% | −60.0% | +5.4% |
| 2008-10-16 | −60.0% | −60.0% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-07-30 | +285.2% | +0.0% | +285.2% |
| 2009-08-24 | +238.0% | +0.0% | +238.0% |
| 2009-08-19 | +233.3% | +0.0% | +241.6% |
4,724 overlapping windows · 2007-11-02 – 2026-09-18 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Pappas Shannon K. | director | Purchase | 1,000 @ $10.25 | $10K | ownership Δ n/a | −8.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,000 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-10 | Dawson Grant Robert | director | Purchase | 3,000 @ $9.98 | $30K | +1.9% of holding | −9.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 158,000 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-04-10 | Lingenbrink Matthew | director | Purchase | 3,000 @ $9.76 | $29K | +51.7% of holding | −9.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 8,800 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-01-15 | Yakatan Seth | director | Purchase | 164 @ $15.36 | $3K | +38.2% of holding | −2.7% | −37.4% | 593 | Form 4 · filed 95 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-15 | Ordal Todd | director | Purchase | 300 @ $12.07 | $4K | +0.5% of holding | +7.9% | +38.7% | 62,488 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-14 | Lingenbrink Matthew | director | Purchase | 3,000 @ $12.17 | $37K | +107.1% of holding | +14.1% | +42.6% | 5,800 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-03-31 | Lingenbrink Matthew | director | Purchase | 2,800 @ $12.17 | $34K | ownership Δ n/a | +25.7% | +44.6% | 2,800 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-01-15 | Ordal Todd | director | Purchase | 150 @ $30.37 | $5K | +0.5% of holding | −9.6% | −28.1% | 31,094 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
11 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | York Jakob | officer | Award / grant | 4,000 | 4,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Hansen Ryan P. | officer | Award / grant | 46,500 | 75,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Hansen Ryan P. | officer | Award / grant | 50,000 | 125,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Hansen Ryan P. | officer | Award / grant | 46,500 | 75,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Hansen Ryan P. | officer | Award / grant | 50,000 | 125,000 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Hansen Ryan P. | officer | Award / grant | 28,500 | 28,500 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-15 | Hansen Ryan P. | officer | Award / grant | 28,500 | 28,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-05 | York Jakob | officer | Award / grant | 4,000 | 4,000 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-31 | Dayton Judd | director | Option exercise | 144,000 | 1,031,226 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-31 | Dayton Judd | director | Option exercise | 144,000 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-28 | Dawson Grant Robert | director | Award / grant | 2,144 | 155,000 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.