FTITechnipFMC plcas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $72.78 · now $72.78 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FTI has typically landed between $63.72 and $87.78 — a range of −12.4% to +20.6% from the issuance price $72.78.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,673 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($72.78) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where FTI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $72.78 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$63.72worst · -12.4%$87.78best · +20.6%
  • now $72.78 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $76.31 (+4.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $70.94–$81.68
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $63.72–$87.78
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,673 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-18−70.8%−70.8%+0.6%
2020-02-13−67.0%−67.0%+0.0%
2020-02-19−64.7%−70.9%+0.2%
3 best
2020-11-04+71.3%−2.9%+71.3%
2020-11-06+69.6%+0.0%+76.4%
2020-10-28+68.2%+0.0%+81.3%

4,673 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+2.6%
n=18
Feb
53%
+2.0%
n=19
Mar
74%
+1.4%
n=19
Apr
63%
+4.7%
n=19
May
42%
−1.1%
n=19
Jun
47%
+1.2%
n=19
Jul
68%
+4.0%
n=19
Aug
53%
−0.6%
n=19
Sep
53%
−0.7%
n=19
Oct
56%
−0.7%
n=18
Nov
56%
+3.4%
n=18
Dec
50%
+0.6%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$80$352026-08-14: 1 insider purchase, $500K — Mullins Eric D.2026-05-19: 1 insider sale, $462K — OLEARY JOHN C G2026-05-05: 3 insider sales, $923K — Priestly Kay G, FARLEY CLAIRE S, Duffe Luana2026-03-24: 1 insider sale, $440K — Zurquiyah Rousset Sophie2026-03-10: 1 insider sale, $2.7M — Melin Alf2026-03-09: 13 insider sales, $72.2M — Pferdehirt Douglas J., Rounce Justin, Melin Alf, Landes Jonathan …2026-02-25: 1 insider sale, $415K — de Carvalho Filho Eleazar2025-09-22: 6 insider sales, $33.8M — Pferdehirt Douglas J., Melin Alf, Conti Thierry …2025-09: 6 open-market sales, $33.8M2026-02: 1 open-market sale, $415K2026-03: 15 open-market sales, $75.4M2026-05: 4 open-market sales, $1.4M2026-08: 1 open-market purchase, $500K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Mullins Eric D. — Purchase on 2026-08-14, filed 4 days after the tradedirector OLEARY JOHN C G — Sale on 2026-05-19, filed same daydirector Priestly Kay G — Sale on 2026-05-05, filed 1 day after the tradedirector FARLEY CLAIRE S — Sale on 2026-05-05, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Duffe Luana — Sale on 2026-05-05, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Zurquiyah Rousset Sophie — Sale on 2026-03-24, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Melin Alf — Sale on 2026-03-10, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Pferdehirt Douglas J. — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Pferdehirt Douglas J. — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Pferdehirt Douglas J. — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Rounce Justin — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Melin Alf — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Rounce Justin — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Landes Jonathan — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Duffe Luana — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Rounce Justin — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Landes Jonathan — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Landes Jonathan — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Melin Alf — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Light David — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradedirector de Carvalho Filho Eleazar — Sale on 2026-02-25, filed same daydirector Pferdehirt Douglas J. — Sale on 2025-09-22, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Melin Alf — Sale on 2025-09-22, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Pferdehirt Douglas J. — Sale on 2025-09-22, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Conti Thierry — Sale on 2025-09-22, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Melin Alf — Sale on 2025-09-22, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Melin Alf — Sale on 2025-09-22, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-14Mullins Eric D.directorPurchase6,365 @ $78.55$500K+373.3% of holding−2.2%not yet — horizon still open8,070Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-19OLEARY JOHN C GdirectorSale6,350 @ $72.79$462K−4.6% of holding−13.8%not yet — horizon still open131,335Form 4 · filed same day
2026-05-05Priestly Kay GdirectorSale6,000 @ $74.66$448K−4.5% of holding−12.6%not yet — horizon still open127,246Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-05FARLEY CLAIRE SdirectorSale4,500 @ $74.66$336K−2.5% of holding−12.6%not yet — horizon still open174,094Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-05Duffe LuanaofficerSale1,870 @ $74.39$139K−2.4% of holding−12.6%not yet — horizon still open77,001Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-24Zurquiyah Rousset SophiedirectorSale6,350 @ $69.32$440K−9.6% of holding−5.2%not yet — horizon still open59,887Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-10Melin AlfofficerSale43,554 @ $63.13$2.7M−15.4% of holding+12.7%not yet — horizon still open238,983Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-09Pferdehirt Douglas J.directorSale318,349 @ $62.10$19.8M−10.7% of holding+13.3%not yet — horizon still open2,659,664Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-09Pferdehirt Douglas J.directorSale247,812 @ $63.12$15.6M−9.3% of holding+13.3%not yet — horizon still open2,411,852Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-09Pferdehirt Douglas J.directorSale167,263 @ $61.22$10.2M−5.3% of holding+13.3%not yet — horizon still open2,978,013Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-09Rounce JustinofficerSale75,850 @ $62.09$4.7M−31.4% of holding+13.3%not yet — horizon still open165,425Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-09Melin AlfofficerSale53,189 @ $62.14$3.3M−15.8% of holding+13.3%not yet — horizon still open282,537Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-09Rounce JustinofficerSale50,668 @ $61.21$3.1M−17.4% of holding+13.3%not yet — horizon still open241,275Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-09Landes JonathanofficerSale48,559 @ $62.13$3.0M−31.1% of holding+13.3%not yet — horizon still open107,423Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-09Duffe LuanaofficerSale47,951 @ $62.43$3.0M−37.8% of holding+13.3%not yet — horizon still open78,871Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-09Rounce JustinofficerSale45,758 @ $63.12$2.9M−27.7% of holding+13.3%not yet — horizon still open119,667Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-09Landes JonathanofficerSale36,067 @ $63.13$2.3M−33.6% of holding+13.3%not yet — horizon still open71,356Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-09Landes JonathanofficerSale31,568 @ $61.26$1.9M−16.8% of holding+13.3%not yet — horizon still open155,982Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-09Melin AlfofficerSale30,532 @ $61.28$1.9M−8.3% of holding+13.3%not yet — horizon still open335,726Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-09Light DavidofficerSale6,622 @ $62.43$413K−57.0% of holding+13.3%not yet — horizon still open5,005Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-25de Carvalho Filho EleazardirectorSale6,350 @ $65.40$415K−6.1% of holding+13.1%−0.0%97,860Form 4 · filed same day
2025-09-22Pferdehirt Douglas J.directorSale632,539 @ $38.62$24.4M−17.8% of holding−6.6%+82.7%2,917,054Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-22Melin AlfofficerSale100,000 @ $38.61$3.9M−28.2% of holding−6.6%+82.7%254,900Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-22Pferdehirt Douglas J.directorSale80,304 @ $38.35$3.1M−100.0% of holding−6.6%+82.7%0Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-22Conti ThierryofficerSale50,000 @ $38.64$1.9M−47.0% of holding−6.6%+82.7%56,352Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-22Melin AlfofficerSale7,176 @ $38.62$277K−2.9% of holding−6.6%+82.7%241,140Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-09-22Melin AlfofficerSale6,584 @ $38.62$254K−2.6% of holding−6.6%+82.7%248,316Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-07-25Zurquiyah Rousset SophiedirectorSale9,381 @ $37.12$348K−13.0% of holding−0.7%+40.9%62,978Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-24de Carvalho Filho EleazardirectorSale9,381 @ $29.76$279K−8.5% of holding−9.4%+17.7%100,951Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-12Rounce JustinofficerSale42,178 @ $26.55$1.1M−23.1% of holding−2.5%+35.1%140,207Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-11Rounce JustinofficerSale235,713 @ $26.65$6.3M−40.3% of holding+2.3%+40.7%349,356Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-11Rounce JustinofficerSale179,482 @ $25.65$4.6M−53.5% of holding+2.3%+40.7%155,923Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-11Landes JonathanofficerSale133,103 @ $25.65$3.4M−57.1% of holding+2.3%+40.7%99,805Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-11Duffe LuanaofficerSale64,404 @ $24.90$1.6M−43.1% of holding+2.3%+40.7%85,133Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-11Rounce JustinofficerSale15,716 @ $25.96$408K−10.1% of holding+2.3%+40.7%140,207Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-11Rounce JustinofficerSale13,951 @ $25.99$363K−4.0% of holding+2.3%+40.7%335,405Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-11Light DavidofficerSale10,147 @ $24.90$253K−57.4% of holding+2.3%+40.7%7,529Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-11Landes JonathanofficerSale8,324 @ $25.99$216K−8.3% of holding+2.3%+40.7%91,481Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

140 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-01dos Santos Iannone Valeria AugustaofficerWithheld for tax62828,263Form 4
2026-08-25Pferdehirt Douglas J.directorWithheld for tax639,9253,398,167Form 4
2026-08-25Melin AlfofficerWithheld for tax118,843422,156Form 4
2026-08-25Rounce JustinofficerWithheld for tax118,843302,840Form 4
2026-08-03Aalders CristinaofficerWithheld for tax1,49443,717Form 4
2026-07-27Pferdehirt Douglas J.directorAward / grant1,626,2404,038,092Form 4
2026-07-27Rounce JustinofficerAward / grant302,016421,683Form 4
2026-07-27Melin AlfofficerAward / grant302,016540,999Form 4
2026-06-01Mullins Eric D.directorAward / grant1,7051,705Form 4
2026-03-09Rounce JustinofficerOption exercise39,108291,943Form 4
2026-03-09Landes JonathanofficerOption exercise10,873187,550Form 4
2026-03-09Landes JonathanofficerOption exercise7,317176,677Form 4
2026-03-09Landes JonathanofficerOption exercise10,8730Form 4
2026-03-09Rounce JustinofficerOption exercise39,1080Form 4
2026-03-09Landes JonathanofficerGift20,76850,588Form 4
2026-03-09Landes JonathanofficerOption exercise7,3170Form 4
2026-02-24Pferdehirt Douglas J.directorWithheld for tax15,2213,145,276Form 4
2026-02-24Melin AlfofficerWithheld for tax3,008366,258Form 4
2026-02-24Rounce JustinofficerWithheld for tax2,707252,835Form 4
2026-02-24Landes JonathanofficerWithheld for tax2,366169,360Form 4
2026-02-24Conti ThierryofficerWithheld for tax96291,813Form 4
2026-02-24Aalders CristinaofficerWithheld for tax79345,211Form 4
2026-02-24Duffe LuanaofficerWithheld for tax672126,822Form 4
2026-02-24dos Santos Iannone Valeria AugustaofficerWithheld for tax66828,891Form 4
2026-02-24Sanchez Mogollon Alfredo EduardoofficerWithheld for tax31326,184Form 4
2026-02-24Light DavidofficerWithheld for tax19811,627Form 4
2026-02-23Pferdehirt Douglas J.directorWithheld for tax440,0193,160,497Form 4
2026-02-23Melin AlfofficerWithheld for tax88,591369,266Form 4
2026-02-23Rounce JustinofficerWithheld for tax79,731255,542Form 4
2026-02-23Landes JonathanofficerWithheld for tax58,005171,726Form 4
2026-02-23Conti ThierryofficerWithheld for tax23,72892,775Form 4
2026-02-23Duffe LuanaofficerWithheld for tax16,583127,494Form 4
2026-02-23dos Santos Iannone Valeria AugustaofficerWithheld for tax2,96029,559Form 4
2026-02-23Aalders CristinaofficerWithheld for tax2,85746,004Form 4
2026-02-23Light DavidofficerWithheld for tax1,46111,825Form 4
2026-02-23Sanchez Mogollon Alfredo EduardoofficerWithheld for tax1,33726,497Form 4
2026-02-20Pferdehirt Douglas J.directorWithheld for tax20,6043,600,516Form 4
2026-02-20Melin AlfofficerWithheld for tax4,501457,857Form 4
2026-02-20Rounce JustinofficerWithheld for tax4,066335,273Form 4
2026-02-20Landes JonathanofficerWithheld for tax3,334229,731Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Ro KhannaHousesale2020-03-092020-02-11$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2019-07-112019-06-03$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2019-04-112019-03-26$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2019-02-122019-01-18$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2018-12-102018-11-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2018-11-092018-10-25$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2018-10-102018-09-25$1–15K
Carlos CurbeloHousepurchase2018-09-252018-08-28$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2018-03-092018-03-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2017-12-122017-11-30$1–15K
Kenneth R. BuckHousesale2017-12-112017-11-07$1–15K
Kenneth R. BuckHousepurchase2017-11-022017-10-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2017-09-082017-08-21$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2015-02-122015-02-01$15–50K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.