FTDRFrontdoor, Inc.Consumer Cyclical · Personal Products & Servicesas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $80.54 · now $80.54 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FTDR has typically landed between $67.36 and $97.54 — a range of −16.4% to +21.1% from the issuance price $80.54.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,991 overlapping 1 month windows · 2018-09-13 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($80.54) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where FTDR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $80.54 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$67.36worst · -16.4%$97.54best · +21.1%
  • now $80.54 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $81.73 (+1.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $75.76–$87.7
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $67.36–$97.54
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,991 windows spanning 2018-09-13 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2018-10-09−52.4%−52.4%+0.0%
2018-10-10−52.1%−52.1%+0.0%
2018-10-08−46.5%−46.5%+4.4%
3 best
2025-04-08+43.2%+0.0%+43.2%
2025-04-16+41.6%+0.0%+41.6%
2025-04-04+40.8%−1.6%+40.8%

1,991 overlapping windows · 2018-09-13 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
63%
+5.7%
n=8
Feb
38%
−2.9%
n=8
Mar
38%
−5.5%
n=8
Apr
63%
+5.7%
n=8
May
75%
+8.1%
n=8
Jun
50%
+3.3%
n=8
Jul
50%
+3.5%
n=8
Aug
63%
+3.0%
n=8
Sep
13%
−3.7%
n=8
Oct
38%
−2.7%
n=8
Nov
50%
−0.2%
n=8
Dec
75%
+2.9%
n=8

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$91$492026-08-10: 3 insider sales, $3.6M — Iverson Evan, Fiarman Jeffrey, Collins Kathryn M2026-03-03: 1 insider sale, $1.0M — Fiarman Jeffrey2025-08-15: 1 insider sale, $556K — Collins Kathryn M2025-08: 2 open-market sales, $7.8M2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $1.0M2026-08: 3 open-market sales, $3.6M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Iverson Evan — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Fiarman Jeffrey — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Collins Kathryn M — Sale on 2026-08-10, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Fiarman Jeffrey — Sale on 2026-03-03, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Collins Kathryn M — Sale on 2025-08-15, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-10Iverson EvanofficerSale18,190 @ $85.50$1.6M−98.8% of holding−2.8%not yet — horizon still open214Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10Fiarman JeffreyofficerSale13,000 @ $85.11$1.1M−39.4% of holding−2.8%not yet — horizon still open20,023Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-10Collins Kathryn MofficerSale10,000 @ $88.98$890K−33.0% of holding−2.8%not yet — horizon still open20,322Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-03Fiarman JeffreyofficerSale15,000 @ $67.60$1.0M−43.1% of holding−17.7%+2.5%19,806Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-15Collins Kathryn MofficerSale9,429 @ $59.02$556K−49.1% of holding+8.4%−8.9%9,783Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-07Fiarman JeffreyofficerSale129,673 @ $56.15$7.3M−78.9% of holding+13.3%−8.1%34,646Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-08Iverson EvanofficerSale8,500 @ $53.42$454K−64.9% of holding+0.8%−27.0%4,593Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-05-08Iverson EvanofficerSale6,077 @ $53.41$325K−31.7% of holding+0.8%−27.0%13,093Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-05Boland Darrin StevedirectorPurchase5,000 @ $42.75$214Kownership Δ n/a−3.1%+38.5%5,000Form 4 · filed same day
2025-03-03COBB WILLIAM CdirectorPurchase5,000 @ $42.22$211K+50.0% of holding+0.2%+41.9%15,000Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-11Iverson EvanofficerSale16,000 @ $58.84$941K−76.4% of holding+0.0%−1.9%4,955Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-10Collins Kathryn MofficerSale25,784 @ $58.06$1.5M−73.2% of holding−2.1%−3.7%9,429Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

204 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-25Shanks Sally JofficerWithheld for tax258578Form 4
2026-08-25Shanks Sally JofficerOption exercise836837Form 4
2026-08-25Shanks Sally JofficerOption exercise836836Form 4
2026-08-25Shanks Sally JofficerOption exercise836836Form 4
2026-08-25Shanks Sally JofficerOption exercise836836Form 4
2026-08-25Shanks Sally JofficerOption exercise836836Form 4
2026-08-10Collins Kathryn MofficerOption exercise10,00030,322Form 4
2026-08-10Collins Kathryn MofficerOption exercise10,00012,299Form 4
2026-07-14Ganesh Balakrishnan AdirectorWithheld for tax2,57114,582Form 4
2026-07-14Ganesh Balakrishnan AdirectorWithheld for tax1,92816,963Form 4
2026-07-14Ganesh Balakrishnan AdirectorOption exercise4,3094,310Form 4
2026-07-14Ganesh Balakrishnan AdirectorOption exercise5,74611,492Form 4
2026-07-14Ganesh Balakrishnan AdirectorOption exercise4,30918,891Form 4
2026-07-14Ganesh Balakrishnan AdirectorOption exercise5,74617,153Form 4
2026-07-14Ganesh Balakrishnan AdirectorOption exercise4,30918,891Form 4
2026-07-14Ganesh Balakrishnan AdirectorOption exercise5,74617,153Form 4
2026-06-29Sferruzza HilladirectorAward / grant2,1122,112Form 4
2026-05-13MCANDREWS BRIAN PdirectorAward / grant2,83632,184Form 4
2026-05-13PELLETIER LIANE JdirectorAward / grant2,83632,349Form 4
2026-05-13Howard DennisdirectorAward / grant2,8363,289Form 4
2026-05-13Clipper Christopher LdirectorAward / grant2,83623,391Form 4
2026-05-13Cella Peter L.directorAward / grant2,83635,801Form 4
2026-05-13Catalano Anna CdirectorAward / grant2,83636,349Form 4
2026-05-13Boland Darrin StevedirectorAward / grant2,83623,391Form 4
2026-03-31COBB WILLIAM CdirectorWithheld for tax12,229184,335Form 4
2026-03-31Fiarman JeffreyofficerWithheld for tax3,25032,843Form 4
2026-03-31Collins Kathryn MofficerWithheld for tax2,95420,322Form 4
2026-03-31Iverson EvanofficerWithheld for tax1,79818,190Form 4
2026-03-31Bailey Jason LofficerWithheld for tax42719,723Form 4
2026-03-31Fiarman JeffreyofficerOption exercise7,01214,024Form 4
2026-03-31Bailey Jason LofficerOption exercise1,7533,506Form 4
2026-03-31Iverson EvanofficerOption exercise6,57413,147Form 4
2026-03-31Collins Kathryn MofficerOption exercise6,57413,147Form 4
2026-03-31COBB WILLIAM CdirectorOption exercise28,04856,096Form 4
2026-03-31Iverson EvanofficerOption exercise6,57419,988Form 4
2026-03-31COBB WILLIAM CdirectorOption exercise28,048196,564Form 4
2026-03-31Bailey Jason LofficerOption exercise1,75320,150Form 4
2026-03-31COBB WILLIAM CdirectorOption exercise28,048196,564Form 4
2026-03-31Bailey Jason LofficerOption exercise1,75320,150Form 4
2026-03-31Iverson EvanofficerOption exercise6,57419,988Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.