FTAI · TickerCove

FTAIFTAI Aviation Ltd.Industrials · Aerospace & Defenseas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $189.83 · now $189.83 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FTAI has typically landed between $154.25 and $239.70 — a range of −18.7% to +26.3% from the issuance price $189.83.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

2,831 overlapping 1 month windows · 2015-05-14 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($189.83) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$189.83 · 24% of range

$151.94 low$308.3 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+5.9%

typical move · IQR 17.3%

−18.7%worst (p90)+26.3%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where FTAI has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $189.83 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $189.83 (+0.0%)
typical $201.07 (+5.9%)
middle 50% $184.61–$217.53
90% range $154.25–$239.7

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,831 windows spanning 2015-05-14 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2020-02-18	−72.7%	−72.7%	+0.4%
2020-02-21	−67.9%	−71.7%	+0.0%
2020-03-03	−64.2%	−68.5%	+0.2%
3 best
2025-12-19	+74.2%	+0.0%	+74.2%
2025-12-18	+74.2%	+0.0%	+74.2%
2025-12-17	+72.1%	+0.0%	+72.1%

2,831 overlapping windows · 2015-05-14 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~12 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

45%

+3.2%

n=11

Feb

64%

+4.9%

n=11

Mar

55%

−1.6%

n=11

Apr

73%

+2.9%

n=11

May

64%

+4.8%

n=11

Jun

58%

+5.2%

n=12

Jul

67%

+4.9%

n=12

Aug

58%

+1.0%

n=12

Sep

58%

+0.6%

n=12

Oct

73%

+1.3%

n=11

Nov

73%

+7.6%

n=11

Dec

55%

+5.1%

n=11

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-07-31	Moreno David	officer	Purchase	2,475 @ $201.27	$498K	+1.3% of holding	−10.2%	not yet — horizon still open	199,490	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-05-27	HANNAWAY JUDITH A	director	Sale	255 @ $253.89	$65K	−7.8% of holding	+6.5%	not yet — horizon still open	3,012	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-04	TUCHMAN MARTIN	director	Sale	67,500 @ $241.99	$16.3M	−24.3% of holding	−2.0%	not yet — horizon still open	210,491	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-04	TUCHMAN MARTIN	director	Sale	43,176 @ $240.64	$10.4M	−18.3% of holding	−2.0%	not yet — horizon still open	193,126	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-01	TUCHMAN MARTIN	director	Sale	143,584 @ $242.44	$34.8M	−37.8% of holding	−2.8%	not yet — horizon still open	236,302	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-27	GOODWIN PAUL R	director	Sale	10,000 @ $303.35	$3.0M	−10.9% of holding	−17.4%	−48.6%	82,108	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-14	Nam Eun	officer	Purchase	652 @ $153.46	$100K	+7.7% of holding	+5.5%	+31.8%	9,089	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-13	Moreno David	officer	Purchase	4,354 @ $153.89	$670K	ownership Δ n/a	+10.3%	+40.7%	4,354	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-13	Moreno David	officer	Purchase	2,283 @ $153.50	$350K	+1.0% of holding	+10.3%	+40.7%	233,906	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-13	Adams Joseph P. Jr.	director	Purchase	2,000 @ $155.91	$312K	+0.9% of holding	+10.3%	+40.7%	217,069	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-05	TUCHMAN MARTIN	director	Purchase	1,000 @ $99.19	$99K	+0.3% of holding	+16.5%	+50.3%	378,009	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-05-02	Moreno David	officer	Purchase	6,580 @ $94.85	$624K	+2.9% of holding	+32.3%	+72.1%	231,623	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-02	Adams Joseph P. Jr.	director	Purchase	3,000 @ $94.54	$284K	+0.9% of holding	+32.3%	+72.1%	341,852	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-05-02	Kuperus Stacy	officer	Purchase	1,087 @ $92.90	$101K	+1.2% of holding	+32.3%	+72.1%	88,423	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-02-28	TUCHMAN MARTIN	director	Purchase	2,200 @ $128.79	$283K	+0.6% of holding	−7.9%	+11.3%	372,009	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

67 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-09-01	Yoon BoHee	officer	Withheld for tax	398	4,063	Form 4
2026-08-10	ROBINSON RAY M	director	Gift	3,673	56,552	Form 4
2026-07-01	Moreno David	officer	Withheld for tax	41,475	197,015	Form 4
2026-07-01	Kuperus Stacy	officer	Withheld for tax	17,973	72,653	Form 4
2026-06-15	TUCHMAN MARTIN	director	Award / grant	86	193,764	Form 4
2026-06-15	GOODWIN PAUL R	director	Award / grant	124	82,912	Form 4
2026-06-15	ROBINSON RAY M	director	Award / grant	119	60,225	Form 4
2026-05-28	Adams Joseph P. Jr.	director	Withheld for tax	10,783	225,644	Form 4
2026-05-28	HANNAWAY JUDITH A	director	Award / grant	552	3,564	Form 4
2026-05-28	LEVISON A ANDREW	director	Award / grant	552	11,703	Form 4
2026-05-28	ROBINSON RAY M	director	Award / grant	552	60,106	Form 4
2026-05-28	GOODWIN PAUL R	director	Award / grant	552	82,788	Form 4
2026-05-28	GIDUMAL SHYAM H	director	Award / grant	552	2,221	Form 4
2026-05-28	TUCHMAN MARTIN	director	Award / grant	552	193,678	Form 4
2026-05-11	Adams Joseph P. Jr.	director	Withheld for tax	7,752	236,427	Form 4
2026-05-11	Adams Joseph P. Jr.	director	Option exercise	12,448	244,179	Form 4
2026-05-11	Adams Joseph P. Jr.	director	Option exercise	12,448	0	Form 4
2026-03-16	TUCHMAN MARTIN	director	Award / grant	88	379,886	Form 4
2026-03-16	McAleese Nicholas	officer	Award / grant	5,083	5,749	Form 4
2026-03-16	Hazan Michael	officer	Award / grant	4,236	4,779	Form 4
2026-03-16	LEVISON A ANDREW	director	Award / grant	88	11,151	Form 4
2026-03-16	GIDUMAL SHYAM H	director	Award / grant	93	1,669	Form 4
2026-03-16	GOODWIN PAUL R	director	Award / grant	128	82,236	Form 4
2026-03-16	ROBINSON RAY M	director	Award / grant	122	59,554	Form 4
2026-03-16	HANNAWAY JUDITH A	director	Award / grant	67	3,267	Form 4
2026-03-04	Moreno David	officer	Withheld for tax	1,956	238,490	Form 4
2026-03-04	Adams Joseph P. Jr.	director	Withheld for tax	1,689	231,731	Form 4
2026-03-04	Kuperus Stacy	officer	Withheld for tax	1,067	90,626	Form 4
2026-03-04	Yoon BoHee	officer	Withheld for tax	190	4,461	Form 4
2026-03-04	Nam Eun	officer	Withheld for tax	132	10,592	Form 4
2026-02-27	Moreno David	officer	Award / grant	6,540	240,446	Form 4
2026-02-27	Yoon BoHee	officer	Award / grant	1,145	4,651	Form 4
2026-02-27	Adams Joseph P. Jr.	director	Award / grant	16,351	233,420	Form 4
2026-02-27	Kuperus Stacy	officer	Award / grant	3,270	91,693	Form 4
2026-02-27	Nam Eun	officer	Award / grant	1,635	10,724	Form 4
2025-12-15	TUCHMAN MARTIN	director	Award / grant	117	379,798	Form 4
2025-12-15	GIDUMAL SHYAM H	director	Award / grant	124	1,576	Form 4
2025-12-15	LEVISON A ANDREW	director	Award / grant	117	11,063	Form 4
2025-11-17	GOODWIN PAUL R	director	Gift	3,000	92,108	Form 4
2025-09-15	GIDUMAL SHYAM H	director	Award / grant	128	1,452	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i