FSUN · TickerCove

FSUNFirstSun Capital BancorpFinancial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $39.11 · now $39.11 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FSUN has typically landed between $34.29 and $44.53 — a range of −12.3% to +13.9% from the issuance price $39.11.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

994 overlapping 1 month windows · 2022-08-03 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($39.11) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$39.11 · 80% of range

$30.16 low$41.4 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+0.7%

typical move · IQR 9.5%

−12.3%worst (p90)+13.9%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where FSUN has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $39.11 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $39.11 (+0.0%)
typical $39.38 (+0.7%)
middle 50% $37.52–$41.25
90% range $34.29–$44.53

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 994 windows spanning 2022-08-03 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2025-10-14	−22.5%	−22.5%	+0.0%
2025-10-20	−22.0%	−23.6%	+2.4%
2025-10-17	−21.6%	−21.6%	+5.1%
3 best
2025-11-18	+29.0%	+0.0%	+29.0%
2025-11-17	+28.7%	+0.0%	+28.7%
2025-11-19	+25.4%	+0.0%	+27.6%

994 overlapping windows · 2022-08-03 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

75%

+2.1%

n=4

Feb

−4.6%

n=4

Mar

25%

−5.5%

n=4

Apr

−2.8%

n=4

May

50%

−1.3%

n=4

Jun

50%

+1.8%

n=4

Jul

75%

+9.3%

n=4

Aug

100%

+3.4%

n=4

Sep

40%

+0.8%

n=5

Oct

50%

−4.8%

n=4

Nov

75%

+6.4%

n=4

Dec

75%

+5.2%

n=4

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-03-16	MURPHY PETER E	director	Purchase	1,500 @ $35.28	$53K	ownership Δ n/a	+3.7%	−0.2%	1,500	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-07	Fleshood John	director	Purchase	1,000 @ $35.50	$36K	+95.2% of holding	−8.1%	−25.5%	2,050	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-05-07	Fleshood John	director	Purchase	1,000 @ $35.25	$35K	+2000.0% of holding	−8.1%	−25.5%	1,050	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-12	CARTER MOLLIE H	director	Sale	1,025,450 @ $37.06	$38.0M	−50.0% of holding	−8.4%	−16.9%	1,025,450	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-12	CARTER MOLLIE H	director	Purchase	428,400 @ $37.06	$15.9M	+179.9% of holding	−8.4%	−16.9%	666,500	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-12	CARTER MOLLIE H	director	Purchase	312,650 @ $37.06	$11.6M	+159.1% of holding	−8.4%	−16.9%	509,125	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-12	CARTER MOLLIE H	director	Purchase	284,400 @ $37.06	$10.5M	+412.2% of holding	−8.4%	−16.9%	353,400	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

82 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-13	ELVING BEVERLY O	director	Withheld for tax	4,505	8,934	Form 4
2026-08-13	ELVING BEVERLY O	director	Option exercise	7,553	13,439	Form 4
2026-08-13	ELVING BEVERLY O	director	Option exercise	7,553	0	Form 4
2026-06-08	Edelson Sam	director	Award / grant	2,099	4,239	Form 4
2026-06-08	MURPHY PETER E	director	Award / grant	2,099	2,149	Form 4
2026-06-08	Cohn Spencer	director	Award / grant	2,099	2,099	Form 4
2026-06-08	ELVING BEVERLY O	director	Award / grant	2,099	3,852	Form 4
2026-06-08	MACKOVAK BENJAMIN	director	Award / grant	2,099	4,239	Form 4
2026-06-08	Parker C. Allen	director	Award / grant	2,099	4,239	Form 4
2026-06-08	Levy David W	director	Award / grant	2,099	9,208	Form 4
2026-06-08	Fleshood John	director	Award / grant	2,099	5,902	Form 4
2026-05-20	CARTER MOLLIE H	director	Gift	5,165	0	Form 4
2026-04-01	ARNOLD NEAL E	director	Withheld for tax	10,914	329,750	Form 4
2026-04-01	Cafera Robert A	officer	Withheld for tax	2,537	148,622	Form 4
2026-04-01	Frazier Laura J	officer	Withheld for tax	1,883	16,514	Form 4
2026-04-01	CARTER MOLLIE H	director	Withheld for tax	1,691	5,165	Form 4
2026-04-01	Norris Jennifer	officer	Withheld for tax	1,368	15,093	Form 4
2026-04-01	Hammond Kevin T.	director	Award / grant	30	30	Form 4
2026-04-01	Enden Henchy R	director	Award / grant	30	30	Form 4
2026-04-01	Frazier Laura J	officer	Award / grant	5,485	13,646	Form 4
2026-04-01	Frazier Laura J	officer	Award / grant	4,751	18,397	Form 4
2026-04-01	ARNOLD NEAL E	director	Award / grant	36,950	340,664	Form 4
2026-04-01	Cafera Robert A	officer	Award / grant	9,600	144,826	Form 4
2026-04-01	Cafera Robert A	officer	Award / grant	6,333	151,159	Form 4
2026-04-01	Norris Jennifer	officer	Award / grant	5,485	12,503	Form 4
2026-04-01	ARNOLD NEAL E	director	Award / grant	30,170	303,714	Form 4
2026-04-01	Norris Jennifer	officer	Award / grant	3,958	16,461	Form 4
2026-04-01	MACKOVAK BENJAMIN	director	Award / grant	2,140	2,140	Form 4
2026-04-01	MACKOVAK BENJAMIN	director	Award / grant	1,151,160	1,151,160	Form 4
2026-04-01	SHAFER THOMAS C	director	Award / grant	80,415	80,415	Form 4
2026-04-01	MACKOVAK BENJAMIN	director	Award / grant	2,140	2,140	Form 4
2026-04-01	MACKOVAK BENJAMIN	director	Award / grant	1,151,160	1,151,160	Form 4
2026-04-01	Parker C. Allen	director	Award / grant	2,140	2,140	Form 4
2026-04-01	Edelson Sam	director	Award / grant	2,140	2,140	Form 4
2026-04-01	Parker C. Allen	director	Award / grant	2,140	2,140	Form 4
2026-04-01	SHAFER THOMAS C	director	Award / grant	80,415	80,415	Form 4
2026-04-01	Edelson Sam	director	Award / grant	2,140	2,140	Form 4
2026-03-31	CARTER MOLLIE H	director	Award / grant	6,856	6,856	Form 4
2026-01-23	MURPHY PETER E	director	Award / grant	50	50	Form 4
2025-10-03	JLL/FCH Holdings I, LLC	tenPercentOwner	Withheld for tax	26,328	3,504,902	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-174% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i