FSTR · TickerCove

FSTRL.B. Foster CompanyIndustrials · Railroadsas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $37.35 · now $37.35 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FSTR has typically landed between $31.18 and $46.19 — a range of −16.5% to +23.7% from the issuance price $37.35.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($37.35) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$37.35 · 60% of range

$25.58 low$45.17 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

+1.8%

typical move · IQR 14.3%

−16.5%worst (p90)+23.7%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where FSTR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $37.35 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $37.35 (+0.0%)
typical $38.04 (+1.8%)
middle 50% $35.36–$40.71
90% range $31.18–$46.19

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2011-07-13	−54.1%	−54.1%	+4.2%
2011-07-12	−52.6%	−52.6%	+5.6%
2020-02-18	−51.2%	−51.2%	+0.0%
3 best
2020-03-18	+62.7%	+0.0%	+65.7%
2024-10-31	+54.9%	+0.0%	+54.9%
2020-03-16	+54.9%	−4.4%	+58.5%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

45%

−0.1%

n=20

Feb

55%

+0.3%

n=20

Mar

50%

−0.7%

n=20

Apr

50%

+1.7%

n=20

May

55%

+2.0%

n=20

Jun

55%

+1.6%

n=20

Jul

55%

+1.5%

n=20

Aug

45%

−2.4%

n=20

Sep

55%

−2.4%

n=20

Oct

70%

+4.0%

n=20

Nov

60%

+4.4%

n=20

Dec

70%

+4.2%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-04-01	English Aron R.	director	Sale	38,431 @ $28.05	$1.1M	−3.6% of holding	−0.3%	not yet — horizon still open	1,027,255	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-31	English Aron R.	director	Sale	1,500 @ $28.02	$42K	−0.1% of holding	−0.8%	not yet — horizon still open	1,065,686	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-30	English Aron R.	director	Sale	1,887 @ $28.01	$53K	−0.2% of holding	−2.8%	not yet — horizon still open	1,067,186	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-27	English Aron R.	director	Sale	862 @ $28.02	$24K	−0.1% of holding	+0.3%	not yet — horizon still open	1,069,073	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-03-26	English Aron R.	director	Sale	8,968 @ $28.02	$251K	−0.8% of holding	+2.7%	not yet — horizon still open	1,069,935	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-25	English Aron R.	director	Sale	2,716 @ $28.09	$76K	−0.3% of holding	+5.5%	not yet — horizon still open	1,078,903	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-03-24	English Aron R.	director	Sale	25,889 @ $28.19	$730K	−2.3% of holding	−1.5%	not yet — horizon still open	1,081,619	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-23	English Aron R.	director	Sale	78,414 @ $28.51	$2.2M	−6.6% of holding	−2.2%	not yet — horizon still open	1,107,508	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-04	English Aron R.	director	Sale	5,124 @ $31.99	$164K	−0.4% of holding	−6.9%	+5.9%	1,185,922	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-12	English Aron R.	director	Sale	13,512 @ $26.79	$362K	−1.1% of holding	+7.4%	+44.8%	1,191,046	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-11	English Aron R.	director	Sale	34,025 @ $26.79	$912K	−2.7% of holding	+8.4%	+46.8%	1,204,558	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-10	English Aron R.	director	Sale	11,248 @ $26.83	$302K	−0.9% of holding	+7.2%	+49.2%	1,238,583	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-12-09	English Aron R.	director	Sale	4,800 @ $26.93	$129K	−0.4% of holding	+6.2%	+51.7%	1,249,831	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-08	English Aron R.	director	Sale	9,765 @ $27.28	$266K	−0.8% of holding	+4.4%	+44.7%	1,254,631	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-01	English Aron R.	director	Sale	101 @ $26.82	$3K	−0.0% of holding	+1.2%	+44.9%	1,264,396	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-28	English Aron R.	director	Sale	1,307 @ $27.09	$35K	−0.1% of holding	+0.4%	+45.7%	1,264,497	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-25	English Aron R.	director	Sale	1,725 @ $26.94	$46K	−0.1% of holding	+5.0%	+42.7%	1,265,804	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-24	English Aron R.	director	Sale	27,003 @ $26.84	$725K	−2.1% of holding	+2.0%	+37.9%	1,267,529	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-21	English Aron R.	director	Sale	3,412 @ $27.03	$92K	−0.3% of holding	+0.4%	+34.7%	1,294,532	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-17	English Aron R.	director	Sale	400 @ $27.00	$11K	−0.0% of holding	+5.8%	+32.3%	1,297,944	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-14	English Aron R.	director	Sale	2,247 @ $27.00	$61K	−0.2% of holding	+7.6%	+30.0%	1,298,344	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-13	English Aron R.	director	Sale	1,600 @ $27.00	$43K	−0.1% of holding	+6.5%	+36.6%	1,300,591	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-12	English Aron R.	director	Sale	3,368 @ $27.06	$91K	−0.3% of holding	−0.0%	+36.1%	1,302,191	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-11	English Aron R.	director	Sale	4,813 @ $28.17	$136K	−0.4% of holding	−1.4%	+39.1%	1,308,308	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-11	English Aron R.	director	Sale	2,749 @ $27.52	$76K	−0.2% of holding	−1.4%	+39.1%	1,305,559	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-07	Kelly Brian H	officer	Sale	10,000 @ $27.15	$272K	−11.2% of holding	−4.8%	+40.5%	79,027	Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

197 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-24	Friedman Brian Hunter	officer	Gift	1,000	30,132	Form 4
2026-08-01	Bowlin Jason Kyle	officer	Award / grant	398	6,980	Form 4
2026-06-30	Meyer David J	director	Award / grant	422	15,425	Form 4
2026-06-01	REILLY SEAN M	officer	Award / grant	895	29,953	Form 4
2026-06-01	THALMAN WILLIAM M	officer	Award / grant	1,128	79,882	Form 4
2026-06-01	Curran Timothy Joseph	officer	Award / grant	295	9,090	Form 4
2026-05-22	KASEL JOHN F	director	Withheld for tax	4,102	239,663	Form 4
2026-05-22	THALMAN WILLIAM M	officer	Withheld for tax	1,178	78,754	Form 4
2026-05-22	Guinee Patrick J.	officer	Withheld for tax	1,077	87,341	Form 4
2026-05-22	LIPPARD GREGORY W	officer	Withheld for tax	905	75,031	Form 4
2026-05-22	Ness Robert	officer	Withheld for tax	683	32,370	Form 4
2026-05-22	REILLY SEAN M	officer	Withheld for tax	425	29,058	Form 4
2026-05-22	Friedman Brian Hunter	officer	Withheld for tax	416	31,132	Form 4
2026-05-22	Rolli Sara Fay	officer	Withheld for tax	352	9,224	Form 4
2026-05-22	O'Neill Jamie F	officer	Withheld for tax	269	16,239	Form 4
2026-05-22	OWEN DIANE B	director	Withheld for tax	96	78,397	Form 4
2026-05-22	Kunz John E	director	Withheld for tax	36	21,773	Form 4
2026-05-21	Kunz John E	director	Award / grant	2,363	21,809	Form 4
2026-05-21	Betler Raymond T	director	Award / grant	2,363	38,082	Form 4
2026-05-21	OWEN DIANE B	director	Award / grant	2,363	78,493	Form 4
2026-05-21	Thompson Bruce Ernest	director	Award / grant	2,363	21,915	Form 4
2026-05-21	Meyer David J	director	Award / grant	2,363	15,003	Form 4
2026-03-31	Meyer David J	director	Award / grant	683	12,640	Form 4
2026-03-01	Rolli Sara Fay	officer	Withheld for tax	72	9,576	Form 4
2026-02-19	KASEL JOHN F	director	Withheld for tax	36,746	243,596	Form 4
2026-02-19	THALMAN WILLIAM M	officer	Withheld for tax	11,746	79,947	Form 4
2026-02-19	Guinee Patrick J.	officer	Withheld for tax	10,091	88,446	Form 4
2026-02-19	LIPPARD GREGORY W	officer	Withheld for tax	8,735	75,996	Form 4
2026-02-19	Ness Robert	officer	Withheld for tax	5,281	33,139	Form 4
2026-02-19	REILLY SEAN M	officer	Withheld for tax	4,308	29,557	Form 4
2026-02-19	Friedman Brian Hunter	officer	Withheld for tax	3,476	31,219	Form 4
2026-02-19	O'Neill Jamie F	officer	Withheld for tax	1,507	16,508	Form 4
2026-02-19	Rolli Sara Fay	officer	Withheld for tax	1,499	9,765	Form 4
2026-02-19	THALMAN WILLIAM M	officer	Award / grant	8,365	80,387	Form 4
2026-02-19	Guinee Patrick J.	officer	Award / grant	1,239	92,924	Form 4
2026-02-19	Guinee Patrick J.	officer	Award / grant	5,613	98,537	Form 4
2026-02-19	THALMAN WILLIAM M	officer	Award / grant	3,651	84,038	Form 4
2026-02-19	THALMAN WILLIAM M	officer	Award / grant	1,358	85,396	Form 4
2026-02-19	THALMAN WILLIAM M	officer	Award / grant	6,297	91,693	Form 4
2026-02-19	LIPPARD GREGORY W	officer	Award / grant	5,975	76,807	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i