FSSFederal Signal CorporationIndustrials · Industrial - Pollution & Treatment Controlsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $115.33 · now $115.33 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FSS has typically landed between $102.92 and $134.06 — a range of −10.8% to +16.2% from the issuance price $115.33.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($115.33) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where FSS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $115.33 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$102.92worst · -10.8%$134.06best · +16.2%
  • now $115.33 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $116.78 (+1.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $110.12–$123.44
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $102.92–$134.06
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−53.4%−53.4%+0.0%
2008-09-25−50.0%−50.0%+0.2%
2009-02-05−49.3%−49.3%+5.9%
3 best
2009-03-05+60.9%−5.3%+60.9%
2009-03-30+60.0%+0.0%+60.0%
2009-04-01+57.3%+0.0%+57.3%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
55%
+0.1%
n=20
Feb
50%
+0.2%
n=20
Mar
65%
+2.8%
n=20
Apr
55%
+4.0%
n=20
May
55%
+0.6%
n=20
Jun
50%
+2.6%
n=20
Jul
60%
+4.6%
n=20
Aug
50%
+0.4%
n=20
Sep
45%
−1.2%
n=20
Oct
45%
−2.4%
n=20
Nov
70%
+4.0%
n=20
Dec
45%
+2.2%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$134$1052026-08-04: 4 insider sales, $2.7M — Bonina Diane, REICHELDERFER BRENDA …2026-08-03: 1 insider sale, $568K — Bonina Diane2026-03-10: 1 insider purchase, $222K — Maue Richard A2025-11-06: 7 insider sales, $5.7M — WEBER MARK …2025-11: 7 open-market sales, $5.7M2026-03: 1 open-market purchase, $222K2026-08: 5 open-market sales, $3.3M↑ buys↓ salesofficer Bonina Diane — Sale on 2026-08-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Bonina Diane — Sale on 2026-08-04, filed 1 day after the tradedirector REICHELDERFER BRENDA — Sale on 2026-08-04, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Bonina Diane — Sale on 2026-08-04, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Bonina Diane — Sale on 2026-08-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Maue Richard A — Purchase on 2026-03-10, filed same dayofficer WEBER MARK — Sale on 2025-11-06, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer WEBER MARK — Sale on 2025-11-06, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer WEBER MARK — Sale on 2025-11-06, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer WEBER MARK — Sale on 2025-11-06, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer WEBER MARK — Sale on 2025-11-06, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer WEBER MARK — Sale on 2025-11-06, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer WEBER MARK — Sale on 2025-11-06, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-04Bonina DianeofficerSale8,306 @ $130.45$1.1M−34.5% of holding−12.3%not yet — horizon still open15,789Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-04Bonina DianeofficerSale6,350 @ $130.41$828K−28.7% of holding−12.3%not yet — horizon still open15,789Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-04REICHELDERFER BRENDAdirectorSale6,070 @ $131.02$795K−11.7% of holding−12.3%not yet — horizon still open45,888Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-08-04Bonina DianeofficerSale100 @ $131.05$13K−0.6% of holding−12.3%not yet — horizon still open15,689Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-03Bonina DianeofficerSale4,408 @ $128.75$568K−21.9% of holding−12.6%not yet — horizon still open15,689Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-10Maue Richard AdirectorPurchase2,000 @ $110.77$222Kownership Δ n/a+5.2%−4.6%2,000Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-06WEBER MARKofficerSale19,760 @ $111.61$2.2M−21.1% of holding−2.5%−4.8%73,894Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-06WEBER MARKofficerSale14,042 @ $111.70$1.6M−16.0% of holding−2.5%−4.8%73,874Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-06WEBER MARKofficerSale11,470 @ $111.05$1.3M−13.4% of holding−2.5%−4.8%73,874Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-06WEBER MARKofficerSale2,546 @ $112.55$287K−3.3% of holding−2.5%−4.8%73,874Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-06WEBER MARKofficerSale1,709 @ $110.75$189K−2.3% of holding−2.5%−4.8%73,874Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-06WEBER MARKofficerSale1,640 @ $112.50$185K−1.8% of holding−2.5%−4.8%87,916Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-06WEBER MARKofficerSale20 @ $112.34$2K−0.0% of holding−2.5%−4.8%73,874Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-28SHERMAN JENNIFER LdirectorPurchase1,250 @ $82.32$103K+0.2% of holding−3.8%+42.8%559,183Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

93 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-04Bonina DianeofficerOption exercise6,45022,139Form 4
2026-08-04Bonina DianeofficerOption exercise8,40624,095Form 4
2026-08-04Bonina DianeofficerOption exercise6,4500Form 4
2026-08-04REICHELDERFER BRENDAdirectorGift7,65051,958Form 4
2026-08-04Bonina DianeofficerOption exercise8,4060Form 4
2026-06-26Maue Richard AdirectorAward / grant993,419Form 4
2026-06-26Vaillancourt Eric A.directorAward / grant961,415Form 4
2026-05-04SHERMAN JENNIFER LdirectorWithheld for tax7,695641,724Form 4
2026-05-04WEBER MARKofficerWithheld for tax2,27886,500Form 4
2026-05-04Hudson Ian A.officerWithheld for tax1,65796,663Form 4
2026-05-04Bonina DianeofficerWithheld for tax96220,097Form 4
2026-05-01SHERMAN JENNIFER LdirectorWithheld for tax29,680649,419Form 4
2026-05-01SHERMAN JENNIFER LdirectorOption exercise59,242679,099Form 4
2026-05-01SHERMAN JENNIFER LdirectorOption exercise59,2420Form 4
2026-04-21Maue Richard AdirectorAward / grant1,2773,320Form 4
2026-04-21Helmkamp Katrina LdirectorAward / grant1,2775,603Form 4
2026-04-21Lowe Eugene Joseph IIIdirectorAward / grant1,27722,571Form 4
2026-04-21Vaillancourt Eric A.directorAward / grant1,2771,319Form 4
2026-04-21Workman John LdirectorAward / grant1,27758,734Form 4
2026-04-21REICHELDERFER BRENDAdirectorAward / grant1,67459,608Form 4
2026-04-21Patel ShashankdirectorAward / grant1,27711,914Form 4
2026-03-27Maue Richard AdirectorAward / grant432,043Form 4
2026-03-27Vaillancourt Eric A.directorAward / grant4242Form 4
2026-03-04REICHELDERFER BRENDAdirectorGift21557,934Form 4
2026-02-27SHERMAN JENNIFER LdirectorAward / grant35,74235,742Form 4
2026-02-27WEBER MARKofficerAward / grant7,7967,796Form 4
2026-02-27Hudson Ian A.officerAward / grant7,3097,309Form 4
2026-02-27Bonina DianeofficerAward / grant4,2244,224Form 4
2026-02-27Boeschen FelixofficerAward / grant1,7871,787Form 4
2026-02-27Boeschen FelixofficerAward / grant5901,726Form 4
2026-02-27WEBER MARKofficerAward / grant2,57788,778Form 4
2026-02-27Hudson Ian A.officerAward / grant2,41698,320Form 4
2026-02-27SHERMAN JENNIFER LdirectorAward / grant11,810619,028Form 4
2026-02-27Bonina DianeofficerAward / grant1,39621,059Form 4
2026-02-26SHERMAN JENNIFER LdirectorWithheld for tax29,455607,218Form 4
2026-02-26WEBER MARKofficerWithheld for tax9,84386,201Form 4
2026-02-26Hudson Ian A.officerWithheld for tax6,37695,904Form 4
2026-02-26Bonina DianeofficerWithheld for tax3,71819,663Form 4
2026-02-26SHERMAN JENNIFER LdirectorAward / grant66,508636,673Form 4
2026-02-26Hudson Ian A.officerAward / grant14,318102,280Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.