Issued 2026-09-16 at $23.54 · now $23.54 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FSLY has typically landed between $16.24 and $33.33 — a range of −31.0% to +41.6% from the issuance price $23.54.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,821 overlapping 1 month windows · 2019-05-17 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($23.54) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where FSLY has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $23.54 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $23.54 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $23.35 (-0.8%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $19.95–$26.75
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $16.24–$33.33
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,821 windows spanning 2019-05-17 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2022-02-10 | −53.5% | −53.5% | +3.1% |
| 2022-02-09 | −52.3% | −52.3% | +1.2% |
| 2022-02-11 | −51.3% | −52.8% | +4.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-02-05 | +185.7% | +0.0% | +185.7% |
| 2026-02-06 | +180.6% | +0.0% | +180.6% |
| 2026-02-09 | +177.8% | +0.0% | +177.8% |
1,821 overlapping windows · 2019-05-17 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~8 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
71%
+8.5%
n=7
Feb
29%
−0.5%
n=7
Mar
29%
+6.4%
n=7
Apr
14%
−5.9%
n=7
May
43%
+3.5%
n=7
Jun
38%
+12.7%
n=8
Jul
63%
+5.6%
n=8
Aug
50%
+3.9%
n=8
Sep
50%
−1.3%
n=8
Oct
14%
−8.9%
n=7
Nov
86%
+14.4%
n=7
Dec
43%
−3.0%
n=7
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Bergman Artur | director | Sale | 2,500 @ $25.14 | $63K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,597,206 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Compton Charles Lacey III | director | Sale | 50,392 @ $24.93 | $1.3M | −5.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 851,949 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Bergman Artur | director | Sale | 23,879 @ $24.54 | $586K | −1.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,604,206 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Bergman Artur | director | Sale | 4,500 @ $25.02 | $113K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,599,706 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-14 | Bergman Artur | director | Sale | 2,700 @ $23.60 | $64K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,628,085 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Bergman Artur | director | Sale | 8,560 @ $22.66 | $194K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,631,185 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-09 | Bergman Artur | director | Sale | 400 @ $24.11 | $10K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,630,785 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Compton Charles Lacey III | director | Sale | 2,436 @ $21.23 | $52K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 902,341 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Bergman Artur | director | Sale | 300 @ $22.51 | $7K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,639,745 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Bergman Artur | director | Sale | 17,576 @ $20.66 | $363K | −0.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,896,249 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Bergman Artur | director | Sale | 10,777 @ $21.08 | $227K | −0.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,640,045 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Bergman Artur | director | Sale | 7,742 @ $20.66 | $160K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,650,822 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Compton Charles Lacey III | director | Sale | 9,458 @ $20.42 | $193K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 904,777 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Compton Charles Lacey III | director | Sale | 35,501 @ $21.10 | $749K | −3.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 934,313 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Compton Charles Lacey III | director | Sale | 18,978 @ $21.86 | $415K | −2.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 915,335 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Compton Charles Lacey III | director | Sale | 1,100 @ $22.61 | $25K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 914,235 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Lovett Scott R. | officer | Sale | 19,624 @ $23.00 | $451K | −1.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,358,218 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Compton Charles Lacey III | director | Sale | 15,028 @ $23.00 | $346K | −1.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 969,814 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | Bergman Artur | director | Sale | 6,225 @ $23.00 | $143K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,913,825 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-31 | PAISLEY CHRISTOPHER B | director | Sale | 3,000 @ $23.00 | $69K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 280,485 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Bergman Artur | director | Sale | 851 @ $24.08 | $20K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,920,050 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | WONG RICHARD | officer | Sale | 29,013 @ $24.29 | $705K | −2.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,045,418 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | WONG RICHARD | officer | Sale | 16,855 @ $23.64 | $398K | −1.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,074,431 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-21 | WONG RICHARD | officer | Sale | 1,808 @ $24.95 | $45K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,043,610 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Bergman Artur | director | Sale | 16,435 @ $24.98 | $411K | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,977,668 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Bergman Artur | director | Sale | 11,088 @ $23.94 | $265K | −0.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,994,103 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Compton Charles Lacey III | director | Sale | 5,400 @ $25.08 | $135K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 985,542 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Compton Charles Lacey III | director | Sale | 5,098 @ $24.08 | $123K | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 990,942 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Bergman Artur | director | Sale | 4,164 @ $25.78 | $107K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,973,504 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-19 | Compton Charles Lacey III | director | Sale | 700 @ $26.05 | $18K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 984,842 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | WONG RICHARD | officer | Sale | 148,015 @ $28.61 | $4.2M | −11.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,091,286 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Compton Charles Lacey III | director | Sale | 34,552 @ $28.60 | $988K | −3.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 996,040 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Bergman Artur | director | Sale | 32,387 @ $28.60 | $926K | −1.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,005,191 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-18 | Lovett Scott R. | officer | Sale | 14,936 @ $28.60 | $427K | −1.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 1,377,842 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-12 | Loop Paula | director | Sale | 7,332 @ $30.00 | $220K | −7.5% of holding | −17.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 90,443 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Daniels Richard Devon | director | Sale | 11,080 @ $22.90 | $254K | −17.8% of holding | −5.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 51,197 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Compton Charles Lacey III | director | Sale | 14,868 @ $25.00 | $372K | −1.4% of holding | −17.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,030,592 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-17 | Compton Charles Lacey III | director | Sale | 4,204 @ $21.10 | $89K | −0.4% of holding | +36.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,045,615 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-17 | Compton Charles Lacey III | director | Sale | 2,714 @ $20.51 | $56K | −0.3% of holding | +36.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,049,819 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-17 | Compton Charles Lacey III | director | Sale | 155 @ $21.90 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | +36.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,045,460 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-16 | Compton Charles Lacey III | director | Sale | 11,412 @ $20.65 | $236K | −1.1% of holding | +43.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,052,533 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Lovett Scott R. | officer | Sale | 41,716 @ $17.77 | $741K | −2.9% of holding | +17.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,392,778 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-16 | Lovett Scott R. | officer | Sale | 34,919 @ $18.15 | $634K | −2.4% of holding | +19.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,434,494 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Bergman Artur | director | Sale | 6,689 @ $21.13 | $141K | −0.3% of holding | −12.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,038,738 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Compton Charles Lacey III | director | Sale | 5,746 @ $21.15 | $122K | −0.5% of holding | −12.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,064,030 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Compton Charles Lacey III | director | Sale | 3,482 @ $20.17 | $70K | −0.3% of holding | −12.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,069,776 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Bergman Artur | director | Sale | 1,100 @ $19.84 | $22K | −0.1% of holding | −12.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,045,427 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Bergman Artur | director | Sale | 100 @ $21.83 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | −12.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,038,638 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Compton Charles Lacey III | director | Sale | 85 @ $21.85 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | −12.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,063,945 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Lovett Scott R. | officer | Sale | 19,622 @ $16.96 | $333K | −1.3% of holding | +4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,469,413 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Compton Charles Lacey III | director | Sale | 15,028 @ $16.96 | $255K | −1.4% of holding | +4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,073,258 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | Bergman Artur | director | Sale | 6,225 @ $16.96 | $106K | −0.3% of holding | +4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,046,527 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | PAISLEY CHRISTOPHER B | director | Sale | 1,000 @ $16.96 | $17K | −16.1% of holding | +4.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,227 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Bergman Artur | director | Sale | 1,077 @ $17.02 | $18K | −0.1% of holding | +7.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,052,752 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | Bergman Artur | director | Sale | 852 @ $17.50 | $15K | −0.0% of holding | +4.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,053,829 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | WONG RICHARD | officer | Sale | 2,500 @ $16.48 | $41K | −0.2% of holding | +2.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,239,301 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Bergman Artur | director | Sale | 31,848 @ $16.41 | $523K | −1.5% of holding | +7.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,054,681 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Compton Charles Lacey III | director | Sale | 11,275 @ $16.48 | $186K | −1.0% of holding | +7.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,088,286 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | WONG RICHARD | officer | Sale | 6,315 @ $16.35 | $103K | −0.5% of holding | +7.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,239,301 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-18 | Compton Charles Lacey III | director | Sale | 34,334 @ $16.85 | $579K | −3.0% of holding | +3.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,099,561 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
49 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | Meyers Charles J | director | Award / grant | 9,601 | 97,775 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Daniels Richard Devon | director | Award / grant | 9,601 | 62,277 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Loop Paula | director | Award / grant | 9,601 | 97,775 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Smith Vanessa C. | director | Award / grant | 9,601 | 98,267 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | PAISLEY CHRISTOPHER B | director | Award / grant | 9,601 | 14,828 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | ALVAREZ AIDA | director | Award / grant | 9,601 | 105,667 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-03 | Hornik David | director | Award / grant | 9,601 | 269,431 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | WONG RICHARD | officer | Award / grant | 2,500 | 1,241,801 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | WONG RICHARD | officer | Award / grant | 118,885 | 1,254,702 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Lovett Scott R. | officer | Award / grant | 135,869 | 1,654,228 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Bergman Artur | director | Award / grant | 157,438 | 2,174,321 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-04 | Compton Charles Lacey III | director | Award / grant | 373,641 | 1,249,472 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Bergman Artur | director | Gift | 204,327 | 588,671 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-03 | Bergman Artur | director | Gift | 50,481 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Lovett Scott R. | officer | Award / grant | 37,610 | 1,142,249 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Bergman Artur | director | Award / grant | 12,356 | 1,854,019 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Bergman Artur | director | Award / grant | 168,521 | 2,022,540 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Compton Charles Lacey III | director | Award / grant | 27,226 | 611,745 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Compton Charles Lacey III | director | Award / grant | 87,259 | 699,004 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Compton Charles Lacey III | director | Award / grant | 263,277 | 962,281 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Lovett Scott R. | officer | Award / grant | 376,110 | 1,518,359 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | Lovett Scott R. | officer | Award / grant | 109,075 | 1,104,639 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-28 | WONG RICHARD | officer | Award / grant | 9,242 | 1,139,565 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-04 | Bergman Artur | director | Award / grant | 9,635 | 2,560,214 | Form 4 |
| 2025-09-03 | WONG RICHARD | officer | Award / grant | 1,130,323 | 1,130,323 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-10 | Compton Charles Lacey III | director | Award / grant | 277,777 | 688,980 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-10 | Lovett Scott R. | officer | Award / grant | 66,666 | 1,353,811 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Meyers Charles J | director | Award / grant | 24,906 | 88,174 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Smith Vanessa C. | director | Award / grant | 24,906 | 88,666 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Daniels Richard Devon | director | Award / grant | 24,906 | 85,900 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Hornik David | director | Award / grant | 24,906 | 259,830 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | PAISLEY CHRISTOPHER B | director | Award / grant | 24,906 | 125,536 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | Loop Paula | director | Award / grant | 24,906 | 88,174 | Form 4 |
| 2025-06-11 | ALVAREZ AIDA | director | Award / grant | 24,906 | 96,066 | Form 4 |
| 2025-05-20 | Nightingale Todd | director | Award / grant | 1,855 | 1,916,935 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-24 | PAISLEY CHRISTOPHER B | director | Option exercise | 38,424 | 100,630 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-24 | PAISLEY CHRISTOPHER B | director | Option exercise | 38,424 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-06 | Nightingale Todd | director | Award / grant | 362,513 | 1,979,433 | Form 4 |
| 2025-03-03 | Bergman Artur | director | Gift | 156,521 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-02-26 | Bergman Artur | director | Award / grant | 298,711 | 3,678,378 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.