Issued 2026-09-16 at $191.07 · now $191.07 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FSLR has typically landed between $157.20 and $244.29 — a range of −17.7% to +27.9% from the issuance price $191.07.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($191.07) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where FSLR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $191.07 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $191.07 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $192.14 (+0.6%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $172.85–$211.44
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $157.2–$244.29
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2008-09-26 | −47.9% | −47.9% | +0.0% |
| 2012-02-09 | −47.3% | −47.4% | +0.0% |
| 2020-02-18 | −45.7% | −45.7% | +6.6% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2022-07-15 | +81.1% | +0.0% | +81.1% |
| 2012-07-30 | +80.9% | +0.0% | +80.9% |
| 2013-04-05 | +80.4% | +0.0% | +80.4% |
4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.
Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.
iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 22 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.- DCF (intrinsic)$-81.34
- Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 20.3× · n=22$313.81
- Analyst target · range $207.00–$320.00$256.00
- Current price · last close 2026-09-16$191.07
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Gloeckler Markus | officer | Sale | 800 @ $200.00 | $160K | −12.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,842 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-17 | Sloan Samantha L. | officer | Sale | 127 @ $222.95 | $28K | −5.9% of holding | −9.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,018 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-11 | Dymbort Jason E. | officer | Sale | 3,700 @ $249.38 | $923K | −39.7% of holding | −12.4% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,624 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-04 | Gloeckler Markus | officer | Sale | 829 @ $248.00 | $206K | −11.1% of holding | −16.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 6,642 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Koralewski Michael | officer | Sale | 3,500 @ $225.00 | $788K | −31.4% of holding | −14.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,642 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Koralewski Michael | officer | Sale | 3,500 @ $218.02 | $763K | −23.9% of holding | −14.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 11,142 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Gloeckler Markus | officer | Sale | 2,625 @ $218.02 | $572K | −26.0% of holding | −14.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,471 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-03 | Gloeckler Markus | officer | Sale | 800 @ $222.00 | $178K | −7.3% of holding | −14.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,096 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | Buehler Patrick James | officer | Sale | 3,000 @ $302.00 | $906K | −40.5% of holding | −26.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,406 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | Stockdale Caroline | officer | Sale | 10,628 @ $275.60 | $2.9M | −30.9% of holding | −21.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 23,792 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Widmar Mark R | director | Sale | 1,237 @ $266.60 | $330K | −1.4% of holding | −6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 85,455 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Widmar Mark R | director | Sale | 1,009 @ $268.89 | $271K | −1.2% of holding | −6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 83,818 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Widmar Mark R | director | Sale | 726 @ $271.23 | $197K | −0.9% of holding | −6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 82,460 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Widmar Mark R | director | Sale | 632 @ $270.05 | $171K | −0.8% of holding | −6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 83,186 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Widmar Mark R | director | Sale | 628 @ $267.72 | $168K | −0.7% of holding | −6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 84,827 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Widmar Mark R | director | Sale | 473 @ $273.17 | $129K | −0.6% of holding | −6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 81,987 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Widmar Mark R | director | Sale | 364 @ $265.15 | $97K | −0.4% of holding | −6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 86,692 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | Widmar Mark R | director | Sale | 126 @ $276.29 | $35K | −0.2% of holding | −6.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 81,861 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Widmar Mark R | director | Sale | 916 @ $254.93 | $234K | −1.0% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 87,391 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Widmar Mark R | director | Sale | 239 @ $250.02 | $60K | −0.3% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 88,794 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Widmar Mark R | director | Sale | 218 @ $253.63 | $55K | −0.2% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 88,307 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Widmar Mark R | director | Sale | 172 @ $251.53 | $43K | −0.2% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 88,622 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Widmar Mark R | director | Sale | 149 @ $257.55 | $38K | −0.2% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 87,103 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Widmar Mark R | director | Sale | 97 @ $252.87 | $25K | −0.1% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 88,525 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Widmar Mark R | director | Sale | 75 @ $256.32 | $19K | −0.1% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 87,252 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Widmar Mark R | director | Sale | 64 @ $255.59 | $16K | −0.1% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 87,327 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | Widmar Mark R | director | Sale | 47 @ $258.48 | $12K | −0.1% of holding | −2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 87,056 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Widmar Mark R | director | Sale | 1,131 @ $249.70 | $282K | −1.2% of holding | +1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 91,041 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Widmar Mark R | director | Sale | 672 @ $240.10 | $161K | −0.7% of holding | +1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 93,176 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Verma Kuntal Kumar | officer | Sale | 582 @ $250.00 | $146K | −10.5% of holding | +1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,967 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Widmar Mark R | director | Sale | 569 @ $251.64 | $143K | −0.6% of holding | +1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 90,000 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Widmar Mark R | director | Sale | 521 @ $243.19 | $127K | −0.6% of holding | +1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 89,033 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Widmar Mark R | director | Sale | 472 @ $250.61 | $118K | −0.5% of holding | +1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 90,569 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Widmar Mark R | director | Sale | 362 @ $241.40 | $87K | −0.4% of holding | +1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 92,814 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Widmar Mark R | director | Sale | 261 @ $254.29 | $66K | −0.3% of holding | +1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 89,739 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Widmar Mark R | director | Sale | 229 @ $246.23 | $56K | −0.2% of holding | +1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 92,449 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Widmar Mark R | director | Sale | 179 @ $255.31 | $46K | −0.2% of holding | +1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 89,560 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Widmar Mark R | director | Sale | 179 @ $248.80 | $45K | −0.2% of holding | +1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 92,172 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Widmar Mark R | director | Sale | 136 @ $244.62 | $33K | −0.1% of holding | +1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 92,678 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Widmar Mark R | director | Sale | 98 @ $247.53 | $24K | −0.1% of holding | +1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 92,351 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-21 | Widmar Mark R | director | Sale | 6 @ $256.96 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | +1.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 89,554 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-13 | Verma Kuntal Kumar | officer | Sale | 1,455 @ $240.00 | $349K | −20.8% of holding | +14.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,549 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-13 | Widmar Mark R | director | Sale | 1,300 @ $240.02 | $312K | −1.4% of holding | +14.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 93,848 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-11 | Widmar Mark R | director | Sale | 2,262 @ $232.55 | $526K | −2.2% of holding | +8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 100,286 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Widmar Mark R | director | Sale | 1,877 @ $233.56 | $438K | −1.9% of holding | +8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 98,409 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Verma Kuntal Kumar | officer | Sale | 1,864 @ $225.00 | $419K | −20.2% of holding | +8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,356 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Widmar Mark R | director | Sale | 1,498 @ $234.84 | $352K | −1.5% of holding | +8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 96,911 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Widmar Mark R | director | Sale | 1,500 @ $230.18 | $345K | −1.4% of holding | +8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 103,574 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Widmar Mark R | director | Sale | 1,363 @ $235.69 | $321K | −1.4% of holding | +8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 95,548 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Widmar Mark R | director | Sale | 1,026 @ $231.53 | $238K | −1.0% of holding | +8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 102,548 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Widmar Mark R | director | Sale | 400 @ $236.53 | $95K | −0.4% of holding | +8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 95,148 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-11 | Verma Kuntal Kumar | officer | Sale | 352 @ $230.00 | $81K | −4.8% of holding | +8.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 7,004 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Verma Kuntal Kumar | officer | Sale | 270 @ $218.16 | $59K | −2.8% of holding | +27.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,220 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Dymbort Jason E. | officer | Sale | 228 @ $218.16 | $50K | −2.4% of holding | +27.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,324 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-06 | Theurer Nathan B. | officer | Sale | 31 @ $218.16 | $7K | −100.0% of holding | +27.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 0 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-05 | Widmar Mark R | director | Sale | 1,526 @ $215.63 | $329K | −1.4% of holding | +39.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 105,074 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-05 | ANTOUN GEORGES | director | Sale | 566 @ $215.63 | $122K | −2.8% of holding | +39.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 19,918 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-05 | Bradley Alexander R. | director | Sale | 498 @ $215.63 | $107K | −1.6% of holding | +39.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 30,712 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-05 | Verma Kuntal Kumar | officer | Sale | 479 @ $215.63 | $103K | −4.8% of holding | +39.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 9,490 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-05-05 | Gloeckler Markus | officer | Sale | 420 @ $215.63 | $91K | −3.7% of holding | +39.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 10,896 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
168 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Sloan Samantha L. | officer | Withheld for tax | 134 | 2,353 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Sloan Samantha L. | officer | Option exercise | 469 | 2,487 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Sloan Samantha L. | officer | Option exercise | 469 | 469 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Sloan Samantha L. | officer | Option exercise | 437 | 2,145 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Sloan Samantha L. | officer | Option exercise | 437 | 1,314 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Ahearn Michael J | director | Gift | 44,584 | 66,057 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | Ahearn Michael J | director | Gift | 44,584 | 66,057 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | George Anita M. | director | Withheld for tax | 67 | 5,171 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | George Anita M. | director | Award / grant | 223 | 5,238 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Sweeney Michael T | director | Award / grant | 223 | 14,325 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | MORGAN CURTIS A | director | Award / grant | 223 | 223 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | RENDUCHINTALA VENKATA S M | director | Award / grant | 223 | 2,133 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | STEBBINS PAUL H | director | Award / grant | 223 | 15,950 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Ahearn Michael J | director | Award / grant | 313 | 66,057 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | KRO LISA A | director | Award / grant | 223 | 4,599 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | POST WILLIAM J | director | Award / grant | 223 | 27,385 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-30 | Wright Norman L. | director | Award / grant | 223 | 5,009 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Sloan Samantha L. | officer | Option exercise | 44 | 1,727 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Koralewski Michael | officer | Option exercise | 518 | 1,556 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Stockdale Caroline | officer | Option exercise | 622 | 1,867 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Theurer Nathan B. | officer | Option exercise | 44 | 44 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Stockdale Caroline | officer | Option exercise | 622 | 34,682 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Widmar Mark R | director | Option exercise | 3,802 | 11,407 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Gloeckler Markus | officer | Option exercise | 968 | 2,904 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Gloeckler Markus | officer | Option exercise | 968 | 11,316 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Sloan Samantha L. | officer | Option exercise | 44 | 134 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Widmar Mark R | director | Option exercise | 3,802 | 106,600 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Verma Kuntal Kumar | officer | Option exercise | 1,106 | 3,319 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Verma Kuntal Kumar | officer | Option exercise | 1,106 | 9,969 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | ANTOUN GEORGES | director | Option exercise | 1,358 | 4,074 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | ANTOUN GEORGES | director | Option exercise | 1,358 | 20,484 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Bradley Alexander R. | director | Option exercise | 1,210 | 3,630 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Bradley Alexander R. | director | Option exercise | 1,210 | 31,210 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Dymbort Jason E. | officer | Option exercise | 968 | 10,818 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Buehler Patrick James | officer | Option exercise | 553 | 1,660 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Dymbort Jason E. | officer | Option exercise | 968 | 2,904 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Buehler Patrick James | officer | Option exercise | 553 | 7,641 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Koralewski Michael | officer | Option exercise | 518 | 14,857 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-04 | Theurer Nathan B. | officer | Option exercise | 44 | 134 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-31 | Ahearn Michael J | director | Award / grant | 374 | 65,744 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.
As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date
A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).
| Member | Chamber | Type | Filed | Traded | Size |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong | Senate | purchase | 2026-07-21 | 2026-03-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-06-09 | 2026-05-27 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-04-07 | 2026-03-30 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | sale | 2026-03-09 | 2026-02-10 | $1–15K |
| Gilbert Cisneros | House | purchase | 2026-02-13 | 2026-01-09 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2026-02-06 | 2026-01-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-05-12 | 2025-04-23 | $1–15K |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | sale | 2025-05-08 | 2025-04-08 | $1–15K |
| Dave Min | House | sale | 2025-04-14 | 2025-03-19 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2025-04-10 | 2025-03-12 | $1–15K |
| Rob Bresnahan | House | sale | 2025-03-27 | 2025-02-25 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | sale | 2024-08-07 | 2024-07-02 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-06-05 | 2024-05-29 | $1–15K |
| Ro Khanna | House | purchase | 2024-05-06 | 2024-04-23 | $1–15K |
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.