FSBCFive Star BancorpFinancial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $45.11 · now $45.11 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FSBC has typically landed between $40.40 and $51.96 — a range of −10.4% to +15.2% from the issuance price $45.11.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,349 overlapping 1 month windows · 2007-08-31 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($45.11) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where FSBC has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $45.11 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$40.4worst · -10.4%$51.96best · +15.2%
  • now $45.11 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $45.53 (+0.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $42.99–$48.06
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $40.4–$51.96
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,349 windows spanning 2007-08-31 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-06-23−45.9%−45.9%+0.0%
2008-05-29−37.8%−37.8%+14.9%
2007-09-17−37.7%−37.7%+0.0%
3 best
2020-04-27+111.8%+0.0%+118.3%
2020-04-24+111.1%−0.4%+117.5%
2020-04-29+102.4%+0.0%+110.2%

2,349 overlapping windows · 2007-08-31 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~18 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
39%
+1.0%
n=18
Feb
35%
−1.5%
n=17
Mar
35%
−2.1%
n=17
Apr
35%
−1.0%
n=17
May
44%
+0.5%
n=16
Jun
59%
+3.1%
n=17
Jul
56%
+1.0%
n=16
Aug
38%
−0.7%
n=16
Sep
67%
+4.6%
n=15
Oct
64%
+4.7%
n=14
Nov
44%
+2.8%
n=16
Dec
65%
+1.0%
n=17

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$49$302026-07-22: 7 insider purchases, $6.3M — Allbaugh Larry Eugene, Perry-Smith Robert Truxtun, Deary-Bell Shannon, Ramos Kevin Francis …2026-05-26: 1 insider sale, $69K — Wait Brett Levi2026-05-21: 1 insider sale, $36K — Lee Michael Eugene2026-05-20: 3 insider sales, $265K — Beckwith James Eugene …2026-05-14: 1 insider sale, $106K — Wait Brett Levi2026-05-07: 1 insider sale, $68K — Lee Michael Eugene2026-05-06: 1 insider sale, $16K — Ramirez-Medina Lydia Ann2026-03-09: 2 insider sales, $147K — Beckwith James Eugene …2026-02-20: 1 insider sale, $47K — Lee Michael Eugene2026-02-17: 1 insider sale, $49K — Lee Michael Eugene2025-12-12: 1 insider sale, $24K — Rizzo Michael Anthony2025-11-19: 1 insider sale, $20K — Ramirez-Medina Lydia Ann2025-08-15: 1 insider sale, $26K — Ramirez-Medina Lydia Ann2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $26K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $20K2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $24K2026-02: 2 open-market sales, $96K2026-03: 2 open-market sales, $147K2026-05: 8 open-market sales, $560K2026-07: 7 open-market purchases, $6.3M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Allbaugh Larry Eugene — Purchase on 2026-07-22, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Perry-Smith Robert Truxtun — Purchase on 2026-07-22, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Deary-Bell Shannon — Purchase on 2026-07-22, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Ramos Kevin Francis — Purchase on 2026-07-22, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Allbaugh Larry Eugene — Purchase on 2026-07-22, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Riggs Judson Teichert — Purchase on 2026-07-22, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Lucas Donna — Purchase on 2026-07-22, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Wait Brett Levi — Sale on 2026-05-26, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Lee Michael Eugene — Sale on 2026-05-21, filed 5 days after the tradedirector Beckwith James Eugene — Sale on 2026-05-20, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Beckwith James Eugene — Sale on 2026-05-20, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Beckwith James Eugene — Sale on 2026-05-20, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Wait Brett Levi — Sale on 2026-05-14, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Lee Michael Eugene — Sale on 2026-05-07, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Ramirez-Medina Lydia Ann — Sale on 2026-05-06, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Beckwith James Eugene — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Beckwith James Eugene — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Lee Michael Eugene — Sale on 2026-02-20, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer Lee Michael Eugene — Sale on 2026-02-17, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Rizzo Michael Anthony — Sale on 2025-12-12, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Ramirez-Medina Lydia Ann — Sale on 2025-11-19, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Ramirez-Medina Lydia Ann — Sale on 2025-08-15, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-07-22Allbaugh Larry EugenedirectorPurchase90,909 @ $44.00$4.0M+9.0% of holding−8.4%not yet — horizon still open1,101,687Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-22Perry-Smith Robert TruxtundirectorPurchase31,363 @ $44.00$1.4M+13.8% of holding−8.4%not yet — horizon still open258,898Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-22Deary-Bell ShannondirectorPurchase5,682 @ $44.00$250K+7.1% of holding−8.4%not yet — horizon still open85,244Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-22Ramos Kevin FrancisdirectorPurchase5,682 @ $44.00$250K+3.3% of holding−8.4%not yet — horizon still open177,546Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-22Allbaugh Larry EugenedirectorPurchase5,682 @ $44.00$250K+1.1% of holding−8.4%not yet — horizon still open507,401Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-22Riggs Judson TeichertdirectorPurchase2,273 @ $44.00$100K+2.7% of holding−8.4%not yet — horizon still open87,531Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-07-22Lucas DonnadirectorPurchase1,136 @ $44.00$50K+8.7% of holding−8.4%not yet — horizon still open14,254Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-26Wait Brett LeviofficerSale1,640 @ $42.27$69K−8.9% of holding+14.5%not yet — horizon still open16,873Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-21Lee Michael EugeneofficerSale867 @ $41.23$36K−2.6% of holding+12.4%not yet — horizon still open32,764Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2026-05-20Beckwith James EugenedirectorSale2,428 @ $41.34$100K−0.5% of holding+9.5%not yet — horizon still open466,586Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-20Beckwith James EugenedirectorSale2,000 @ $41.22$82K−0.4% of holding+9.5%not yet — horizon still open469,014Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-20Beckwith James EugenedirectorSale2,000 @ $41.12$82K−0.4% of holding+9.5%not yet — horizon still open471,014Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-14Wait Brett LeviofficerSale2,583 @ $41.11$106K−12.8% of holding+6.3%not yet — horizon still open17,608Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-07Lee Michael EugeneofficerSale1,641 @ $41.26$68K−4.7% of holding+4.2%not yet — horizon still open33,631Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-06Ramirez-Medina Lydia AnnofficerSale400 @ $40.99$16K−3.5% of holding+3.6%not yet — horizon still open10,960Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-09Beckwith James EugenedirectorSale2,000 @ $36.74$73K−0.4% of holding+7.1%+11.9%475,014Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-09Beckwith James EugenedirectorSale2,000 @ $36.57$73K−0.4% of holding+7.1%+11.9%473,014Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-20Lee Michael EugeneofficerSale1,200 @ $39.30$47K−3.3% of holding−3.2%+0.4%35,272Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-17Lee Michael EugeneofficerSale1,200 @ $40.73$49K−3.2% of holding−8.3%+2.9%36,472Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-12Rizzo Michael AnthonyofficerSale641 @ $37.28$24K−100.0% of holding−2.8%+8.4%0Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-19Ramirez-Medina Lydia AnnofficerSale600 @ $33.07$20K−5.0% of holding+8.5%+14.9%11,360Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-08-15Ramirez-Medina Lydia AnnofficerSale825 @ $30.94$26K−6.5% of holding+2.6%+26.8%11,960Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-10Beckwith James EugenedirectorSale6,429 @ $27.74$178K−1.3% of holding+1.8%+11.9%469,952Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-05Ramirez-Medina Lydia AnnofficerSale600 @ $27.43$16K−4.5% of holding+6.2%+14.3%12,785Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-03-13Lucas DonnadirectorPurchase2,650 @ $28.43$75K+28.1% of holding−7.1%−1.0%12,076Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-10Kurtze Don JustinofficerPurchase100 @ $28.46$3K+10.9% of holding−0.5%−1.6%1,014Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-02-28Beckwith James EugenedirectorSale4,000 @ $30.25$121K−0.8% of holding−3.2%−0.1%476,381Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

51 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-04Allbaugh Larry EugenedirectorGift50,000210,695Form 4
2026-05-29Allbaugh Larry EugenedirectorGift150,000260,695Form 4
2026-05-21Ramirez-Medina Lydia AnnofficerAward / grant2,71513,675Form 4
2026-05-21Wetton Shelley RonanofficerAward / grant90524,711Form 4
2026-05-21Wait Brett LeviofficerAward / grant90518,513Form 4
2026-05-21Dalton John WilliamofficerAward / grant90532,662Form 4
2026-05-21Kurtze Don JustinofficerAward / grant2,7157,362Form 4
2026-05-21Lee Michael EugeneofficerAward / grant90533,669Form 4
2026-05-21Luck Heather ChristinaofficerAward / grant2,71530,376Form 4
2026-05-21Rizzo Michael AnthonyofficerAward / grant2,71536,084Form 4
2026-01-29Ramos Kevin FrancisdirectorAward / grant974171,864Form 4
2026-01-29Nickum David FrankdirectorAward / grant974179,876Form 4
2026-01-29Perry-Smith Robert TruxtundirectorAward / grant974227,535Form 4
2026-01-29Allbaugh Larry EugenedirectorAward / grant974501,719Form 4
2026-01-29Kashiwagi Warren PauldirectorAward / grant9746,370Form 4
2026-01-29Lucas DonnadirectorAward / grant97413,118Form 4
2026-01-29Reynoso Randall EdirectorAward / grant97422,870Form 4
2026-01-29Riggs Judson TeichertdirectorAward / grant97485,258Form 4
2026-01-29Deary-Bell ShannondirectorAward / grant97479,562Form 4
2025-07-28Beckwith James EugenedirectorAward / grant7,062477,014Form 4
2025-07-09Wetton Shelley RonanofficerGift35223,806Form 4
2025-05-09Deary-Bell ShannondirectorCode W3,9000Form 4
2025-05-09Deary-Bell ShannondirectorCode W3,9000Form 4
2025-05-01Reynoso Randall EdirectorAward / grant6821,896Form 4
2025-05-01Wetton Shelley RonanofficerAward / grant90723,454Form 4
2025-05-01Lucas DonnadirectorAward / grant6812,144Form 4
2025-05-01Kurtze Don JustinofficerAward / grant3,6294,643Form 4
2025-05-01Lee Michael EugeneofficerAward / grant90737,672Form 4
2025-05-01Luck Heather ChristinaofficerAward / grant3,62927,661Form 4
2025-05-01Ramirez-Medina Lydia AnnofficerAward / grant3,62913,385Form 4
2025-05-01Wait Brett LeviofficerAward / grant90720,191Form 4
2025-05-01Kashiwagi Warren PauldirectorAward / grant685,396Form 4
2025-05-01Ramos Kevin FrancisdirectorAward / grant68170,890Form 4
2025-05-01Riggs Judson TeichertdirectorAward / grant6884,284Form 4
2025-05-01Rizzo Michael AnthonyofficerAward / grant3,62933,369Form 4
2025-05-01Allbaugh Larry EugenedirectorAward / grant68500,745Form 4
2025-05-01Dalton John WilliamofficerAward / grant90731,757Form 4
2025-05-01Deary-Bell ShannondirectorAward / grant6878,588Form 4
2025-05-01Nickum David FrankdirectorAward / grant68178,902Form 4
2025-05-01Perry-Smith Robert TruxtundirectorAward / grant68226,561Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.