FRTFederal Realty Investment TrustReal Estate · REIT - Retailas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $112.42 · now $112.42 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FRT has typically landed between $101.02 and $123.40 — a range of −10.1% to +9.8% from the issuance price $112.42.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,685 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($112.42) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where FRT has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $112.42 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$101.02worst · -10.1%$123.4best · +9.8%
  • now $112.42 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $113.02 (+0.5%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $108.57–$117.47
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $101.02–$123.4
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,685 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−47.8%−47.8%+0.0%
2008-09-26−46.1%−46.1%+0.4%
2020-03-04−45.1%−45.1%+0.0%
3 best
2008-12-01+39.9%+0.0%+48.4%
2020-05-07+36.7%−9.0%+36.7%
2008-11-19+36.7%−1.1%+46.8%

4,685 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Fundamentals iCompany financials — revenue, earnings, margins — from the newest filings shown, each carried with its date.iAs-reported figures and standard ratios from FMP, as of 2026-07-25. Revenue, net income and free cash flow can toggle annual or quarterly; margin, ROE and debt-to-equity are shown by fiscal year. We report the figures and the trend — no target price and no over/under-valued call. More on /methodology.

$10.9B
market cap
$5.81
EPS (TTM)
21.7
P/E (TTM)
2026-07-31
next earnings
Revenue$1.3B
'20'25
Net income$411M
'20'25
Free cash flow$331M
'20'25
Net margin · by yr32.1%
'20'25
ROE · by yr12.7%
'20'25
Debt / equity · by yr1.55
'20'25

Fair value — three views iIndependent reference estimates of worth (a cash-flow model, peer multiples, analyst targets), shown as separate views — not a single verdict.

iThree independent estimates of per-share value, each by a different method and each with its own assumptions: a discounted-cash-flow intrinsic value, a peer comparable (the median trailing P/E of 29 sector peers times this company's trailing EPS), and the analyst price-target consensus. They routinely disagree — that gap is the point. We show the three marks and the current price; we do not blend them into a single number or call the stock over- or under-valued. Marks as of the latest capture. More on /methodology.
now $112.42$104.60$197.39
  • DCF (intrinsic)$138.62
  • Peer P/E × EPS · sector median 32.9× · n=29$190.99
  • Analyst target · range $111.00–$149.00$129.00
  • Current price · last close 2026-09-16$112.42

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
56%
+0.5%
n=18
Feb
47%
−0.7%
n=19
Mar
68%
+0.3%
n=19
Apr
63%
+3.2%
n=19
May
42%
−1.8%
n=19
Jun
53%
+0.5%
n=19
Jul
84%
+3.6%
n=19
Aug
53%
+0.2%
n=19
Sep
32%
−0.7%
n=19
Oct
50%
−0.8%
n=18
Nov
61%
+3.3%
n=18
Dec
67%
+1.2%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$127$89↑ buys↓ sales
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

35 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-03Guglielmone DanielofficerWithheld for tax84080,026Form 4
2026-06-03WOOD DONALD CdirectorGift37,038132,042Form 4
2026-06-03McEachin ThomasdirectorGift1,3390Form 4
2026-06-03McEachin ThomasdirectorGift1,3393,874Form 4
2026-06-03WOOD DONALD CdirectorGift37,038290,300Form 4
2026-02-12WOOD DONALD CdirectorWithheld for tax28,211169,080Form 4
2026-02-12Guglielmone DanielofficerWithheld for tax4,43880,866Form 4
2026-02-11WOOD DONALD CdirectorAward / grant63,708197,291Form 4
2026-02-11BECKER DAWN MofficerAward / grant11,712196,618Form 4
2026-02-11Guglielmone DanielofficerAward / grant17,94785,304Form 4
2026-01-02FAEDER DAVID WdirectorAward / grant1,09127,537Form 4
2026-01-02Holland Elizabeth IdirectorAward / grant1,3399,727Form 4
2026-01-02Lamb-Hale NicoledirectorAward / grant1,3396,113Form 4
2026-01-02McEachin ThomasdirectorAward / grant1,3391,339Form 4
2026-01-02Nader Anthony P IIIdirectorAward / grant1,3396,113Form 4
2026-01-02Steinel Gail PdirectorAward / grant1,33918,017Form 4
2025-09-29WOOD DONALD CdirectorGift60,000113,879Form 4
2025-09-29WOOD DONALD CdirectorGift60,0000Form 4
2025-09-05McEachin ThomasdirectorGift2,5350Form 4
2025-09-05McEachin ThomasdirectorGift2,5352,535Form 4
2025-08-03Guglielmone DanielofficerWithheld for tax82767,357Form 4
2025-06-23WOOD DONALD CdirectorGift33,857133,583Form 4
2025-06-23WOOD DONALD CdirectorGift33,857253,262Form 4
2025-02-12WOOD DONALD CdirectorWithheld for tax25,675167,440Form 4
2025-02-12Guglielmone DanielofficerWithheld for tax2,98268,184Form 4
2025-02-12Guglielmone DanielofficerAward / grant15,93971,166Form 4
2025-02-12WOOD DONALD CdirectorAward / grant68,335193,115Form 4
2025-02-12BECKER DAWN MofficerAward / grant12,381184,906Form 4
2025-01-02Nader Anthony P IIIdirectorAward / grant1,0724,774Form 4
2025-01-02Lamb-Hale NicoledirectorAward / grant1,0724,774Form 4
2025-01-02McEachin ThomasdirectorAward / grant1,0722,535Form 4
2025-01-02Holland Elizabeth IdirectorAward / grant1,0728,388Form 4
2025-01-02Steinel Gail PdirectorAward / grant1,07216,678Form 4
2025-01-02FAEDER DAVID WdirectorAward / grant80426,446Form 4
2024-12-31BERKES JEFFREY SofficerWithheld for tax15,51537,553Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

'25 Q'26 Qpurchases ▲ / sales ▼ ($ vol)
MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Alan ArmstrongSenatepurchase2026-07-212026-03-27$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2025-09-092025-08-04$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-08-072025-07-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2025-08-072025-07-01$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousesale2022-06-102022-05-23$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2022-06-102022-05-05$1–15K
Tom MalinowskiHousepurchase2021-07-092019-01-18$15–50K
Tom MalinowskiHousesale2021-07-092019-10-25$1–15K
Tom MalinowskiHousesale2021-07-092019-10-25$15–50K
Tom MalinowskiHousepurchase2021-07-092019-07-22$1–15K
Tom MalinowskiHousepurchase2021-03-052020-03-25$15–50K
Ro KhannaHousesale2020-04-202020-03-05$1–15K
Ro KhannaHousepurchase2020-03-092020-02-11$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.