Issued 2026-09-16 at $15.78 · now $15.78 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FRST has typically landed between $14.03 and $18.32 — a range of −11.1% to +16.1% from the issuance price $15.78.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
4,977 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-11-01 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($15.78) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where FRST has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $15.78 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $15.78 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $15.77 (-0.1%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $14.92–$16.62
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $14.03–$18.32
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,977 windows spanning 2006-11-01 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2020-02-18 | −50.0% | −50.0% | +0.5% |
| 2020-02-21 | −44.5% | −48.3% | +0.2% |
| 2020-02-20 | −43.9% | −48.4% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2009-03-05 | +93.0% | +0.0% | +101.5% |
| 2009-03-04 | +63.3% | −19.0% | +63.3% |
| 2009-03-03 | +57.6% | −19.6% | +60.8% |
4,977 overlapping windows · 2006-11-01 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
50%
+1.7%
n=20
Feb
30%
−0.9%
n=20
Mar
40%
−1.2%
n=20
Apr
60%
−0.3%
n=20
May
60%
+2.0%
n=20
Jun
65%
+2.1%
n=20
Jul
45%
+0.9%
n=20
Aug
30%
−1.5%
n=20
Sep
45%
−0.9%
n=20
Oct
58%
−0.3%
n=19
Nov
74%
+3.2%
n=19
Dec
55%
+2.2%
n=20
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Johnson Eric Alan | director | Purchase | 1,565 @ $15.95 | $25K | +3.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 52,447 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Johnson Eric Alan | director | Purchase | 1,280 @ $15.60 | $20K | +2.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 50,882 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Weichert Margaret M | director | Purchase | 100 @ $15.75 | $2K | +15.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 734 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-20 | Weichert Margaret M | director | Purchase | 110 @ $16.00 | $2K | +21.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 634 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Weichert Margaret M | director | Purchase | 100 @ $16.37 | $2K | +23.6% of holding | +1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 524 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-06 | Weichert Margaret M | director | Purchase | 100 @ $16.27 | $2K | +30.9% of holding | +1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 424 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-11 | Saunders Jason Brock | director | Purchase | 500 @ $15.20 | $8K | ownership Δ n/a | −0.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 500 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-09 | GARRETT F L III | director | Purchase | 155 @ $15.24 | $2K | +0.3% of holding | +1.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,339 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-08 | GARRETT F L III | director | Purchase | 250 @ $15.03 | $4K | +0.5% of holding | +2.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 48,184 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-05 | GARRETT F L III | director | Purchase | 125 @ $15.00 | $2K | +0.3% of holding | +1.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,934 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-04 | GARRETT F L III | director | Purchase | 125 @ $14.74 | $2K | +0.3% of holding | +6.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,809 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Gamble Scott R | director | Purchase | 1,711 @ $14.59 | $25K | +123.2% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,100 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-03 | Sharma Anurag | officer | Purchase | 694 @ $14.40 | $10K | ownership Δ n/a | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 694 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-06-03 | GARRETT F L III | director | Purchase | 450 @ $14.50 | $7K | +1.0% of holding | +11.3% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,684 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-02 | GARRETT F L III | director | Purchase | 250 @ $14.75 | $4K | +0.5% of holding | +7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,234 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Gamble Scott R | director | Purchase | 1,389 @ $14.39 | $20K | ownership Δ n/a | +14.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 1,389 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | GARRETT F L III | director | Purchase | 350 @ $14.30 | $5K | +0.8% of holding | +14.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,984 | Form 4 · filed 7 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-29 | GARRETT F L III | director | Purchase | 250 @ $14.40 | $4K | +0.5% of holding | +14.5% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,634 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-28 | GARRETT F L III | director | Purchase | 250 @ $14.50 | $4K | +0.5% of holding | +16.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,384 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-27 | GARRETT F L III | director | Purchase | 250 @ $14.51 | $4K | +0.5% of holding | +17.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 46,134 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-26 | GARRETT F L III | director | Purchase | 354 @ $14.49 | $5K | +0.8% of holding | +10.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 45,884 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-22 | GARRETT F L III | director | Purchase | 290 @ $14.39 | $4K | +0.6% of holding | +10.8% | not yet — horizon still open | 45,530 | Form 4 · filed 10 days after the trade |
| 2026-05-19 | Clagett Robert Yates | director | Purchase | 1,421 @ $14.00 | $20K | +2.7% of holding | +8.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 53,665 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-05-14 | Clagett Robert Yates | director | Purchase | 1,410 @ $14.16 | $20K | +2.8% of holding | +7.9% | not yet — horizon still open | 52,244 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-12 | Biagas John Fitzgerald | director | Purchase | 1,925 @ $12.80 | $25K | +2.1% of holding | +4.4% | +12.0% | 91,944 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-11 | Biagas John Fitzgerald | director | Purchase | 1,550 @ $12.75 | $20K | +1.8% of holding | +7.7% | +14.8% | 90,019 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-06 | Diaz Deborah | director | Purchase | 1,050 @ $12.77 | $13K | +5.2% of holding | +6.4% | +12.6% | 21,122 | Form 4 · filed 6 days after the trade |
| 2026-02-10 | COOK WILLIAM RAND | director | Purchase | 1,770 @ $14.17 | $25K | +4.0% of holding | −4.5% | +7.8% | 46,203 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-05 | COOK WILLIAM RAND | director | Purchase | 1,410 @ $14.26 | $20K | +3.3% of holding | −8.2% | +2.4% | 44,433 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-02-03 | Switzer Matthew Alan | officer | Purchase | 2,500 @ $14.06 | $35K | +2.7% of holding | −5.2% | +5.6% | 96,226 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-12-10 | Diaz Deborah | director | Purchase | 1,608 @ $12.34 | $20K | +8.7% of holding | +3.8% | +17.8% | 20,072 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-11-13 | Clagett Robert Yates | director | Purchase | 2,268 @ $10.98 | $25K | +4.7% of holding | +19.7% | +17.8% | 50,834 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-11-11 | Clagett Robert Yates | director | Purchase | 1,830 @ $10.84 | $20K | +3.9% of holding | +16.3% | +20.5% | 48,566 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-10-28 | Johnson Eric Alan | director | Purchase | 2,020 @ $10.70 | $22K | +5.4% of holding | +8.3% | +35.4% | 39,680 | Form 4 · filed 15 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-28 | Johnson Eric Alan | director | Purchase | 300 @ $10.71 | $3K | +0.8% of holding | +8.3% | +35.4% | 39,980 | Form 4 · filed 15 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-09 | Johnson Eric Alan | director | Purchase | 1,818 @ $11.00 | $20K | +5.1% of holding | −7.5% | +14.1% | 37,660 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-08-06 | GARRETT F L III | director | Purchase | 2,261 @ $11.07 | $25K | +5.3% of holding | −0.3% | +22.7% | 45,240 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | GARRETT F L III | director | Purchase | 1,810 @ $11.02 | $20K | +4.4% of holding | −0.9% | +21.5% | 42,979 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-03-12 | Biagas John Fitzgerald | director | Purchase | 10,000 @ $9.97 | $100K | +12.7% of holding | −13.7% | −6.0% | 88,469 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-06 | Williamson Susan B | officer | Purchase | 2,800 @ $11.15 | $31K | +50.0% of holding | −4.4% | −2.7% | 8,397 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-06 | COOK WILLIAM RAND | director | Purchase | 2,242 @ $11.15 | $25K | +8.4% of holding | −4.4% | −2.7% | 28,901 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-05 | Williamson Susan B | officer | Purchase | 220 @ $11.05 | $2K | +4.1% of holding | −2.7% | −3.1% | 5,597 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-02-04 | Biagas John Fitzgerald | director | Purchase | 2,298 @ $10.86 | $25K | +3.0% of holding | −2.5% | −2.9% | 78,469 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-02-04 | COOK WILLIAM RAND | director | Purchase | 1,850 @ $10.98 | $20K | +24.5% of holding | −2.5% | −2.9% | 9,387 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-02-03 | Biagas John Fitzgerald | director | Purchase | 1,805 @ $11.04 | $20K | +2.4% of holding | −5.2% | −1.8% | 76,171 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2024-12-13 | KABBASH CHARLES A | director | Sale | 11,183 @ $12.19 | $136K | −14.7% of holding | −8.1% | −18.3% | 65,000 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-13 | GARRETT F L III | director | Purchase | 3,660 @ $12.32 | $45K | +9.8% of holding | −8.1% | −18.3% | 41,169 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-13 | Clagett Robert Yates | director | Purchase | 2,020 @ $12.37 | $25K | +4.5% of holding | −8.1% | −18.3% | 46,736 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-13 | Johnson Eric Alan | director | Purchase | 1,700 @ $12.32 | $21K | +5.0% of holding | −8.1% | −18.3% | 35,842 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-13 | Clagett Robert Yates | director | Purchase | 1,600 @ $12.43 | $20K | +3.7% of holding | −8.1% | −18.3% | 44,716 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-12 | Johnson Eric Alan | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $12.43 | $25K | +6.2% of holding | −7.5% | −19.6% | 34,142 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2024-12-12 | Diaz Deborah | director | Purchase | 2,000 @ $12.42 | $25K | +12.1% of holding | −7.5% | −19.6% | 18,464 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
30 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | Leibson Marie Taylor | officer | Option exercise | 5,500 | 68,848 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-09 | Leibson Marie Taylor | officer | Option exercise | 5,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Fulk Rickey Allen | officer | Option exercise | 2,297 | 9,953 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Switzer Matthew Alan | officer | Option exercise | 3,250 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Switzer Matthew Alan | officer | Option exercise | 1,969 | 8,531 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Wood Cheryl | officer | Option exercise | 1,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Switzer Matthew Alan | officer | Option exercise | 5,219 | 101,445 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Gore Ann-Stanton C | officer | Option exercise | 1,969 | 13,840 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Gore Ann-Stanton C | officer | Option exercise | 1,969 | 8,531 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Fulk Rickey Allen | officer | Option exercise | 2,297 | 18,074 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Leibson Marie Taylor | officer | Option exercise | 3,469 | 63,348 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Leibson Marie Taylor | officer | Option exercise | 1,500 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Leibson Marie Taylor | officer | Option exercise | 1,969 | 8,531 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Wood Cheryl | officer | Option exercise | 3,469 | 15,441 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Wood Cheryl | officer | Option exercise | 1,969 | 8,531 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Zember Dennis J JR | director | Option exercise | 50,964 | 270,981 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Zember Dennis J JR | director | Option exercise | 42,105 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2026-03-05 | Zember Dennis J JR | director | Option exercise | 8,859 | 38,391 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Gore Ann-Stanton C | officer | Award / grant | 10,500 | 10,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Wood Cheryl | officer | Award / grant | 4,500 | 11,972 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Wood Cheryl | officer | Award / grant | 10,500 | 10,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Zember Dennis J JR | director | Award / grant | 20,250 | 220,017 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Zember Dennis J JR | director | Award / grant | 47,250 | 47,250 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Fulk Rickey Allen | officer | Award / grant | 12,250 | 12,250 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Leibson Marie Taylor | officer | Award / grant | 10,500 | 10,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Switzer Matthew Alan | officer | Award / grant | 4,500 | 93,726 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Switzer Matthew Alan | officer | Award / grant | 10,500 | 10,500 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Leibson Marie Taylor | officer | Award / grant | 4,500 | 59,879 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Fulk Rickey Allen | officer | Award / grant | 5,250 | 15,777 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-18 | Gore Ann-Stanton C | officer | Award / grant | 4,500 | 11,871 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.