Issued 2026-09-16 at $12.73 · now $12.73 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FRSH has typically landed between $9.87 and $15.61 — a range of −22.5% to +22.6% from the issuance price $12.73.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,230 overlapping 1 month windows · 2021-09-22 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($12.73) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where FRSH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $12.73 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $12.73 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $12.53 (-1.5%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $11.44–$13.63
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $9.87–$15.61
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,230 windows spanning 2021-09-22 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-01-22 | −41.6% | −41.6% | +2.4% |
| 2026-01-13 | −39.8% | −39.8% | +3.2% |
| 2026-01-12 | −39.7% | −39.7% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2024-10-09 | +50.0% | −0.4% | +50.0% |
| 2024-10-23 | +48.2% | +0.0% | +50.7% |
| 2024-10-10 | +47.3% | +0.0% | +50.7% |
1,230 overlapping windows · 2021-09-22 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~5 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
40%
−1.9%
n=5
Feb
0%
−13.4%
n=5
Mar
40%
−5.0%
n=5
Apr
60%
−1.5%
n=5
May
60%
−0.2%
n=5
Jun
40%
−0.9%
n=5
Jul
40%
+0.7%
n=5
Aug
80%
+8.1%
n=5
Sep
0%
−7.3%
n=5
Oct
60%
+1.8%
n=5
Nov
80%
+7.3%
n=5
Dec
60%
−1.3%
n=5
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Lawrence Philippa | officer | Sale | 52,767 @ $13.25 | $699K | −11.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 389,296 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Lawrence Philippa | officer | Sale | 3,470 @ $10.13 | $35K | −0.8% of holding | +15.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 456,144 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-02 | Taylor Jennifer H | director | Sale | 6,618 @ $10.44 | $69K | −9.6% of holding | +12.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 62,673 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2026-07-01 | PADGETT BARRY L. | director | Sale | 6,618 @ $10.49 | $69K | −12.3% of holding | +9.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 47,270 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-06-17 | Lawrence Philippa | officer | Sale | 10,530 @ $9.18 | $97K | −2.2% of holding | +22.6% | not yet — horizon still open | 465,823 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-04 | Yamamoto Mika | director | Sale | 32,577 @ $8.45 | $275K | −2.8% of holding | +2.2% | +43.5% | 1,127,723 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-03-02 | Woodside Dennis | director | Purchase | 125,000 @ $7.95 | $994K | +4.3% of holding | +4.4% | +59.9% | 3,004,312 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-01-06 | Lawrence Philippa | officer | Sale | 765 @ $11.61 | $9K | −0.1% of holding | −23.6% | −20.9% | 510,483 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-12-05 | Yamamoto Mika | director | Sale | 15,012 @ $13.00 | $195K | −3.0% of holding | −8.0% | −35.0% | 490,350 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-12-02 | Lawrence Philippa | officer | Sale | 5,846 @ $12.06 | $71K | −1.5% of holding | −5.6% | −33.2% | 392,711 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-17 | Lawrence Philippa | officer | Sale | 644 @ $12.05 | $8K | −0.2% of holding | +4.3% | −33.9% | 412,951 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-11 | Sloat Tyler | director | Purchase | 171,615 @ $11.62 | $2.0M | +17.6% of holding | +11.8% | −37.8% | 1,149,244 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-11-10 | Woodside Dennis | director | Purchase | 176,100 @ $11.31 | $2.0M | +9.1% of holding | +17.7% | −37.2% | 2,111,517 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-10-06 | Lawrence Philippa | officer | Sale | 866 @ $11.45 | $10K | −0.2% of holding | −4.0% | −30.1% | 412,951 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-15 | Lawrence Philippa | officer | Sale | 2,590 @ $12.53 | $32K | −0.6% of holding | −12.0% | −38.3% | 415,949 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-11 | Taylor Jennifer H | director | Sale | 4,685 @ $12.96 | $61K | −9.6% of holding | −13.5% | −38.3% | 44,218 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-09-04 | Yamamoto Mika | director | Sale | 715 @ $13.00 | $9K | −0.1% of holding | −16.4% | −37.8% | 533,278 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | NELSON ZACHARY | director | Sale | 8,433 @ $13.14 | $111K | −17.8% of holding | −17.5% | −43.3% | 38,870 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | Yamamoto Mika | director | Sale | 4,289 @ $13.18 | $57K | −0.8% of holding | −17.5% | −43.3% | 533,993 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-09-02 | PADGETT BARRY L. | director | Sale | 780 @ $13.13 | $10K | −2.3% of holding | −17.5% | −43.3% | 32,635 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-11 | Taylor Jennifer H | director | Sale | 4,690 @ $12.53 | $59K | −9.6% of holding | +3.1% | −38.5% | 44,218 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-05 | PADGETT BARRY L. | director | Sale | 780 @ $13.07 | $10K | −2.3% of holding | −6.7% | −39.5% | 32,635 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-08-04 | NELSON ZACHARY | director | Sale | 8,432 @ $13.01 | $110K | −17.8% of holding | −1.2% | −36.5% | 38,870 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-08-04 | Yamamoto Mika | director | Sale | 4,289 @ $13.00 | $56K | −0.8% of holding | −1.2% | −36.5% | 566,198 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-11 | Taylor Jennifer H | director | Sale | 4,685 @ $14.27 | $67K | −9.6% of holding | −14.4% | −24.8% | 44,218 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-07-02 | NELSON ZACHARY | director | Sale | 8,433 @ $14.80 | $125K | −17.8% of holding | −14.2% | −27.5% | 38,870 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-02 | Flower Johanna | director | Sale | 8,000 @ $14.80 | $118K | −14.3% of holding | −14.2% | −27.5% | 48,094 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-02 | PADGETT BARRY L. | director | Sale | 785 @ $15.15 | $12K | −2.3% of holding | −14.2% | −27.5% | 32,635 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | PADGETT BARRY L. | director | Sale | 7,558 @ $15.14 | $114K | −18.8% of holding | −16.8% | −30.6% | 32,635 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | Taylor Jennifer H | director | Sale | 7,558 @ $15.13 | $114K | −14.6% of holding | −16.8% | −30.6% | 44,218 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-07-01 | Yamamoto Mika | director | Sale | 4,289 @ $15.05 | $65K | −0.7% of holding | −16.8% | −30.6% | 570,487 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-11 | Mathrubootham Rathnagirish | director | Sale | 70,997 @ $16.01 | $1.1M | −8.9% of holding | −13.9% | −29.0% | 724,515 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-06-10 | Mathrubootham Rathnagirish | director | Sale | 55,800 @ $16.00 | $893K | −7.2% of holding | −15.3% | −31.8% | 724,515 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-10 | Taylor Jennifer H | director | Sale | 4,690 @ $15.92 | $75K | −11.0% of holding | −15.3% | −31.8% | 37,895 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | Flower Johanna | director | Sale | 3,810 @ $16.00 | $61K | −8.3% of holding | −12.3% | −34.2% | 42,155 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-09 | Mathrubootham Rathnagirish | director | Sale | 3,386 @ $16.00 | $54K | −0.5% of holding | −12.3% | −34.2% | 744,647 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-04 | Yamamoto Mika | director | Sale | 1,765 @ $15.50 | $27K | −0.3% of holding | −7.9% | −35.3% | 574,776 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | NELSON ZACHARY | director | Sale | 8,442 @ $15.10 | $127K | −25.3% of holding | −6.8% | −36.5% | 24,890 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-06-02 | Yamamoto Mika | director | Sale | 3,574 @ $15.13 | $54K | −0.6% of holding | −6.8% | −36.5% | 576,541 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-30 | PADGETT BARRY L. | director | Sale | 780 @ $14.97 | $12K | −2.8% of holding | −5.7% | −37.1% | 26,957 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-12 | Taylor Jennifer H | director | Sale | 4,685 @ $15.41 | $72K | −11.0% of holding | −3.4% | −45.3% | 37,895 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-09 | AUSTIN ROXANNE S | director | Sale | 6,303 @ $14.75 | $93K | −3.6% of holding | +2.3% | −42.7% | 169,586 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-05-06 | PADGETT BARRY L. | director | Sale | 780 @ $14.26 | $11K | −2.8% of holding | +3.2% | −45.1% | 26,957 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-05-05 | Yamamoto Mika | director | Sale | 3,574 @ $14.66 | $52K | −0.6% of holding | +1.4% | −44.9% | 608,030 | Form 4 · filed same day |
| 2025-05-02 | NELSON ZACHARY | director | Sale | 8,433 @ $14.69 | $124K | −25.3% of holding | +0.9% | −45.5% | 24,890 | Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-10 | Taylor Jennifer H | director | Sale | 4,690 @ $12.60 | $59K | −11.0% of holding | +13.5% | −36.8% | 37,895 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-09 | AUSTIN ROXANNE S | director | Sale | 6,303 @ $12.11 | $76K | −3.5% of holding | +7.3% | −36.8% | 175,889 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-02 | NELSON ZACHARY | director | Sale | 8,442 @ $14.52 | $123K | −25.3% of holding | +0.4% | −40.3% | 24,890 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | Yamamoto Mika | director | Sale | 3,574 @ $14.20 | $51K | −0.6% of holding | +1.5% | −39.8% | 611,604 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2025-04-01 | PADGETT BARRY L. | director | Sale | 780 @ $14.09 | $11K | −2.8% of holding | +1.5% | −39.8% | 26,957 | Form 4 · filed same day |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
250 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Woodside Dennis | director | Withheld for tax | 53,687 | 2,800,924 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Woodside Dennis | director | Withheld for tax | 18,188 | 2,758,684 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Woodside Dennis | director | Withheld for tax | 15,179 | 2,785,745 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Lawrence Philippa | officer | Withheld for tax | 14,081 | 442,063 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Woodside Dennis | director | Withheld for tax | 10,955 | 2,747,729 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Woodside Dennis | director | Withheld for tax | 8,873 | 2,776,872 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Sloat Tyler | director | Withheld for tax | 7,579 | 1,729,018 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Sloat Tyler | director | Withheld for tax | 6,072 | 1,740,146 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Sloat Tyler | director | Withheld for tax | 4,565 | 1,724,453 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Sloat Tyler | director | Withheld for tax | 3,549 | 1,736,597 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Manning Ryan | officer | Award / grant | 1,162,790 | 1,162,790 | Form 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | Sloat Tyler | director | Withheld for tax | 10,734 | 1,746,218 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Woodside Dennis | director | Withheld for tax | 22,473 | 2,854,611 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Sloat Tyler | director | Withheld for tax | 10,563 | 1,756,952 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Tickle Ian | officer | Withheld for tax | 7,102 | 933,110 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Lawrence Philippa | officer | Withheld for tax | 4,123 | 459,614 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Lawrence Philippa | officer | Withheld for tax | 2,086 | 463,737 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-02 | Tickle Ian | officer | Withheld for tax | 1,635 | 940,212 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Tickle Ian | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,263 | 948,069 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Tickle Ian | officer | Withheld for tax | 6,222 | 941,847 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | GANDHI SAMEER K | director | Award / grant | 22,698 | 88,786 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Pelzer Francis J. | director | Award / grant | 21,253 | 64,627 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | PADGETT BARRY L. | director | Award / grant | 21,253 | 53,888 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Gottfried Randy | director | Award / grant | 21,253 | 75,173 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Flower Johanna | director | Award / grant | 22,647 | 74,065 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Taylor Jennifer H | director | Award / grant | 22,299 | 69,291 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-01 | AUSTIN ROXANNE S | director | Award / grant | 23,311 | 212,149 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Woodside Dennis | director | Withheld for tax | 53,686 | 2,930,276 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Woodside Dennis | director | Withheld for tax | 18,187 | 2,888,038 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Woodside Dennis | director | Withheld for tax | 15,178 | 2,915,098 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Lawrence Philippa | officer | Withheld for tax | 14,368 | 476,353 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Woodside Dennis | director | Withheld for tax | 10,954 | 2,877,084 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Woodside Dennis | director | Withheld for tax | 8,873 | 2,906,225 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Sloat Tyler | director | Withheld for tax | 7,578 | 1,772,079 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Sloat Tyler | director | Withheld for tax | 6,072 | 1,783,206 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Sloat Tyler | director | Withheld for tax | 4,564 | 1,767,515 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-01 | Sloat Tyler | director | Withheld for tax | 3,549 | 1,779,657 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Sloat Tyler | director | Withheld for tax | 10,734 | 1,787,155 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Sloat Tyler | director | Withheld for tax | 6,822 | 1,797,889 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Sloat Tyler | director | Withheld for tax | 6,822 | 1,804,711 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.