FRPH · TickerCove

FRPHFRP Holdings, Inc.Real Estate · Real Estate - Developmentas of 2026-09-16

Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $21.19 · now $21.19 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FRPH has typically landed between $19.32 and $23.22 — a range of −8.8% to +9.6% from the issuance price $21.19.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.

Actual close
Typical path (median)
Middle 50% of outcomes
90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-12 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($21.19) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

52-week range$21.19 · 10% of range

$20.72 low$25.56 high

Trailing 52 weeks to 2026-09-16 — factual context, not a signal.

Base rate up · monthiClimatology base rate that a US-listed stock rises over a month, with its 90% CI and ≈1,408 effective observations. Not a call on this stock — we have no evidence its odds differ.

53.9%

90% CI 51.7%–56.1%

Distribution · month iiThe price-anchored range: typical move (median), and the p90 downside/upside — 90% of similar periods stayed inside these. Ranges, not a prediction of direction.

−0.2%

typical move · IQR 6.4%

−8.8%worst (p90)+9.6%best (p90)

Insider convictioniOpen-market common-stock purchases by company insiders in the last 90 days (grants and option exercises excluded). Historical tendency, not advice — detail below.

conviction buys

0 open-market sales

Congress disclosuresiRecent disclosed congressional trades for this company. Purchase clusters (≥2 members buying within 90 days) historically preceded a modestly higher forward return (+32 bp/mo in 2022–2026, +45 bp/mo in 2015–2021) — a descriptive tendency, not a forecast input. Detail below.

0 buys · 0 sells · 0 members

cluster tilt persisted, ~halved after 2021

Where FRPH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $21.19 — the range is history, not a prediction.

now $21.19 (+0.0%)
typical $21.14 (-0.2%)
middle 50% $20.46–$21.82
90% range $19.32–$23.22

Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-12 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.

Start	Return	Max drop	Max rise
3 worst
2009-02-05	−41.1%	−41.1%	+0.0%
2020-02-13	−37.8%	−37.8%	+1.0%
2009-02-04	−34.8%	−34.8%	+1.9%
3 best
2015-01-06	+53.3%	−5.0%	+53.3%
2009-03-17	+50.7%	+0.0%	+50.7%
2009-03-09	+49.9%	+0.0%	+55.2%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-12 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month i

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.

Jan

25%

−3.1%

n=20

Feb

60%

+2.2%

n=20

Mar

70%

+2.1%

n=20

Apr

50%

+0.3%

n=20

May

50%

−0.4%

n=20

Jun

60%

+3.0%

n=20

Jul

45%

+0.1%

n=20

Aug

30%

−0.9%

n=20

Sep

30%

−1.6%

n=20

Oct

60%

+2.9%

n=20

Nov

55%

+2.8%

n=20

Dec

40%

+1.6%

n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares @ price	Value	Ownership Δ	vs S&P 1m	vs S&P 6m	Owned after	Filing
2026-08-18	BAKER JOHN D II	director	Purchase	8,189 @ $21.97	$180K	+0.3% of holding	not yet — horizon still open	not yet — horizon still open	3,059,389	Form 4 · filed same day
2026-08-17	BAKER JOHN D II	director	Purchase	957 @ $21.97	$21K	+0.0% of holding	−1.0%	not yet — horizon still open	3,051,200	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-07	Baker John D. III	director	Purchase	6,800 @ $21.91	$149K	+2.3% of holding	+2.3%	not yet — horizon still open	303,591	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-03-23	BAKER JOHN D II	director	Purchase	478,468 @ $20.90	$10.0M	+18.6% of holding	−8.4%	not yet — horizon still open	3,050,243	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-31	deVilliers David H III	officer	Sale	4,589 @ $22.75	$104K	−8.2% of holding	+3.0%	−0.2%	51,570	Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade
2025-12-11	deVilliers David H III	officer	Sale	1,500 @ $23.42	$35K	−2.6% of holding	+1.0%	−10.1%	56,159	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-21	DEVILLIERS DAVID H JR	director	Sale	2,000 @ $23.23	$46K	−2.5% of holding	−8.0%	−16.9%	79,084	Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-13	McNulty Matthew C.	officer	Purchase	1,000 @ $23.94	$24K	+4.1% of holding	−5.0%	−15.9%	25,106	Form 4 · filed same day
2025-11-13	BAKER JOHN D II	director	Purchase	854 @ $23.85	$20K	+0.4% of holding	−5.0%	−15.9%	199,879	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-12	BAKER JOHN D II	director	Purchase	7,175 @ $23.85	$171K	+3.7% of holding	−1.7%	−16.9%	199,025	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-12	McNulty Matthew C.	officer	Purchase	1,000 @ $23.84	$24K	+4.3% of holding	−1.7%	−16.9%	24,106	Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-10	Baker John D. III	director	Purchase	4,166 @ $23.70	$99K	+1.9% of holding	−0.9%	−18.4%	221,254	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-10	BAKER JOHN D II	director	Purchase	334 @ $23.50	$8K	+0.2% of holding	−0.9%	−18.4%	191,850	Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-05	deVilliers David H III	officer	Purchase	1,356 @ $31.00	$42K	+2.4% of holding	−1.4%	−29.7%	57,659	Form 4 · filed 14 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

57 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

Date	Person	Role	Action	Shares	Owned after	Filing
2026-05-14	WALTON WILLIAM H III	director	Award / grant	4,671	53,387	Form 4
2026-05-14	STEIN MARTIN E JR	director	Award / grant	4,671	146,720	Form 4
2026-05-14	Surface John S	director	Award / grant	4,671	17,599	Form 4
2026-05-14	Thomas Nicole B.	director	Award / grant	4,671	17,599	Form 4
2026-05-14	Wetherbee Margaret B.	director	Award / grant	4,671	133,861	Form 4
2026-05-14	McAfee Matthew	director	Award / grant	4,671	11,547	Form 4
2026-03-10	deVilliers David H III	officer	Disposition	548	67,088	Form 4
2026-03-10	DEVILLIERS DAVID H JR	director	Disposition	548	92,507	Form 4
2026-03-10	Klopfenstein John D	officer	Disposition	276	31,680	Form 4
2026-03-10	McNulty Matthew C.	officer	Disposition	418	37,632	Form 4
2026-03-10	Baker John D. III	director	Disposition	2,733	14,864	Form 4
2026-02-19	BAKER JOHN D II	director	Gift	48,721	74,813	Form 4
2026-02-12	Baker John D. III	director	Gift	48,721	48,721	Form 4
2026-02-12	BAKER JOHN D II	director	Gift	97,442	131,534	Form 4
2026-01-30	BAKER JOHN D II	director	Gift	54,824	35,407	Form 4
2026-01-27	Baker John D. III	director	Gift	54,824	268,518	Form 4
2026-01-27	BAKER JOHN D II	director	Gift	109,648	90,231	Form 4
2026-01-02	Baker John D. III	director	Gift	1,673	213,694	Form 4
2026-01-01	DEVILLIERS DAVID H JR	director	Award / grant	3,072	93,055	Form 4
2026-01-01	Baker John D. III	director	Award / grant	6,580	35,720	Form 4
2026-01-01	Baker John D. III	director	Award / grant	9,216	44,936	Form 4
2026-01-01	DEVILLIERS DAVID H JR	director	Award / grant	2,632	89,983	Form 4
2026-01-01	Klopfenstein John D	officer	Award / grant	2,192	27,568	Form 4
2026-01-01	Klopfenstein John D	officer	Award / grant	4,388	31,956	Form 4
2026-01-01	deVilliers David H III	officer	Award / grant	6,580	58,420	Form 4
2026-01-01	deVilliers David H III	officer	Award / grant	9,216	67,636	Form 4
2026-01-01	McNulty Matthew C.	officer	Award / grant	5,264	30,370	Form 4
2026-01-01	McNulty Matthew C.	officer	Award / grant	7,680	38,050	Form 4
2025-12-31	DEVILLIERS DAVID H JR	director	Option exercise	9,879	0	Form 4
2025-12-31	DEVILLIERS DAVID H JR	director	Option exercise	5,819	87,351	Form 4
2025-12-29	Baker John D. III	director	Gift	5,887	215,367	Form 4
2025-12-01	DEVILLIERS DAVID H JR	director	Option exercise	14,080	0	Form 4
2025-12-01	DEVILLIERS DAVID H JR	director	Option exercise	2,448	81,532	Form 4
2025-10-02	Klopfenstein John D	officer	Option exercise	760	25,376	Form 4
2025-10-02	Klopfenstein John D	officer	Option exercise	760	0	Form 4
2025-05-12	WALTON WILLIAM H III	director	Award / grant	3,650	48,716	Form 4
2025-05-12	Thomas Nicole B.	director	Award / grant	3,650	6,876	Form 4
2025-05-12	STEIN MARTIN E JR	director	Award / grant	3,650	142,049	Form 4
2025-05-12	Wetherbee Margaret B.	director	Award / grant	3,650	129,050	Form 4
2025-05-12	McAfee Matthew	director	Award / grant	3,650	6,876	Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Resolves in i

28d remaining

2026-09-173% elapsed2026-10-15

Logged immutably 2026-09-17; scored automatically on 2026-10-15 — no edits, ever.

Earnings & context analysis

These panels are being prepared. They are generated by multiple language models, checked, and stored before display — never written live for a page view. Until a model panel has been generated and reviewed for a company, nothing is shown here, honestly, rather than a placeholder.

Calibration i

Every forecast is logged when made and scored when the month is up. The record is shown from the day it starts — young and honest.

How scoring works →

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

Reported insider & political trades

Congressional disclosures

Seasonality · by month i