Issued 2026-09-16 at $92.62 · now $92.62 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FROG has typically landed between $73.70 and $118.26 — a range of −20.4% to +27.7% from the issuance price $92.62.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
1,486 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-09-16 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($92.62) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where FROG has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $92.62 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $92.62 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $94.35 (+1.9%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $85.16–$103.55
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $73.7–$118.26
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,486 windows spanning 2020-09-16 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-01-22 | −39.0% | −39.0% | +5.5% |
| 2026-01-23 | −36.4% | −40.5% | +2.8% |
| 2026-01-26 | −35.0% | −41.7% | +0.8% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-04-30 | +90.2% | +0.0% | +90.2% |
| 2026-05-01 | +76.5% | +0.0% | +77.0% |
| 2026-04-29 | +71.8% | +0.0% | +71.8% |
1,486 overlapping windows · 2020-09-16 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.
iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~6 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.Jan
33%
+1.6%
n=6
Feb
33%
−2.6%
n=6
Mar
33%
−3.3%
n=6
Apr
33%
−3.9%
n=6
May
50%
+14.1%
n=6
Jun
100%
+11.5%
n=6
Jul
50%
+0.4%
n=6
Aug
33%
−2.1%
n=6
Sep
33%
−4.5%
n=6
Oct
50%
−2.1%
n=6
Nov
50%
+6.1%
n=6
Dec
33%
+0.7%
n=6
Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | ZWARENSTEIN BARRY | director | Sale | 1,250 @ $88.38 | $110K | −3.9% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 30,437 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Notman Tali | officer | Sale | 17,949 @ $86.94 | $1.6M | −2.6% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 669,523 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Shlomi Ben Haim | director | Sale | 12,196 @ $86.53 | $1.1M | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,456,635 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Shlomi Ben Haim | director | Sale | 10,518 @ $85.34 | $898K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,468,831 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Shlomi Ben Haim | director | Sale | 6,856 @ $82.17 | $563K | −0.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,488,149 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Shlomi Ben Haim | director | Sale | 6,500 @ $84.54 | $550K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,479,349 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Shlomi Ben Haim | director | Sale | 5,514 @ $87.47 | $482K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,451,121 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Shlomi Ben Haim | director | Sale | 2,300 @ $83.63 | $192K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,485,849 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Shlomi Ben Haim | director | Sale | 1,816 @ $88.23 | $160K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,449,305 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-08 | Notman Tali | officer | Sale | 845 @ $87.78 | $74K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 668,678 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Landman Yoav | director | Sale | 16,104 @ $87.38 | $1.4M | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,182,934 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Landman Yoav | director | Sale | 14,369 @ $90.54 | $1.3M | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,158,838 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Landman Yoav | director | Sale | 7,027 @ $89.83 | $631K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,173,207 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Landman Yoav | director | Sale | 4,800 @ $91.43 | $439K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,154,038 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-04 | Landman Yoav | director | Sale | 2,700 @ $88.43 | $239K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,180,234 | Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Grabscheid Eduard | officer | Sale | 5,414 @ $91.62 | $496K | −2.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 193,016 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Grabscheid Eduard | officer | Sale | 2,066 @ $90.99 | $188K | −1.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 198,430 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Grabscheid Eduard | officer | Sale | 777 @ $93.05 | $72K | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 192,239 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Grabscheid Eduard | officer | Sale | 111 @ $91.29 | $10K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 192,128 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Grabscheid Eduard | officer | Sale | 47 @ $91.86 | $4K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 192,081 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-03 | Grabscheid Eduard | officer | Sale | 21 @ $93.00 | $2K | −0.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 192,060 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Shlomi Ben Haim | director | Sale | 37,232 @ $90.51 | $3.4M | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 4,495,005 | Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Notman Tali | officer | Sale | 19,157 @ $90.51 | $1.7M | −2.7% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 687,472 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-02 | Grabscheid Eduard | officer | Sale | 8,780 @ $90.51 | $795K | −4.2% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 200,496 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Simon Frederic | director | Sale | 63,124 @ $91.83 | $5.8M | −2.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,921,204 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Simon Frederic | director | Sale | 14,133 @ $95.84 | $1.4M | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,872,150 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Simon Frederic | director | Sale | 13,510 @ $92.77 | $1.3M | −0.5% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,907,694 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Simon Frederic | director | Sale | 12,357 @ $93.67 | $1.2M | −0.4% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,895,337 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Simon Frederic | director | Sale | 9,054 @ $95.05 | $861K | −0.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,886,283 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Simon Frederic | director | Sale | 3,903 @ $96.93 | $378K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,868,247 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Simon Frederic | director | Sale | 2,319 @ $97.84 | $227K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,865,928 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-09-01 | Simon Frederic | director | Sale | 1,600 @ $98.75 | $158K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 2,864,328 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-28 | Steele Elisa | director | Sale | 554 @ $103.41 | $57K | −2.3% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 23,750 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Landman Yoav | director | Sale | 108,348 @ $100.56 | $10.9M | −2.0% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,298,925 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Landman Yoav | director | Sale | 96,892 @ $101.43 | $9.8M | −1.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,202,033 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Landman Yoav | director | Sale | 41,065 @ $99.40 | $4.1M | −0.8% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,407,273 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-27 | Landman Yoav | director | Sale | 2,995 @ $102.02 | $306K | −0.1% of holding | not yet — horizon still open | not yet — horizon still open | 5,199,038 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Simon Frederic | director | Sale | 31,160 @ $90.48 | $2.8M | −1.0% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,029,005 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Simon Frederic | director | Sale | 26,242 @ $88.48 | $2.3M | −0.8% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,062,986 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Simon Frederic | director | Sale | 21,284 @ $94.87 | $2.0M | −0.7% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,984,828 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Landman Yoav | director | Sale | 11,698 @ $90.49 | $1.1M | −0.2% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,465,042 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Simon Frederic | director | Sale | 10,900 @ $93.82 | $1.0M | −0.4% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,006,112 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Landman Yoav | director | Sale | 10,198 @ $88.45 | $902K | −0.2% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,477,840 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Simon Frederic | director | Sale | 10,200 @ $87.63 | $894K | −0.3% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,089,228 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Landman Yoav | director | Sale | 8,277 @ $94.88 | $785K | −0.2% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,448,365 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Simon Frederic | director | Sale | 7,200 @ $91.38 | $658K | −0.2% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,021,805 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Simon Frederic | director | Sale | 4,793 @ $92.68 | $444K | −0.2% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,017,012 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Simon Frederic | director | Sale | 4,900 @ $86.67 | $425K | −0.2% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,099,428 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Landman Yoav | director | Sale | 4,000 @ $93.80 | $375K | −0.1% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,456,642 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Landman Yoav | director | Sale | 3,400 @ $87.61 | $298K | −0.1% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,488,038 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Simon Frederic | director | Sale | 2,821 @ $89.36 | $252K | −0.1% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 3,060,165 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Landman Yoav | director | Sale | 2,600 @ $91.36 | $238K | −0.0% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,462,442 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Landman Yoav | director | Sale | 1,800 @ $92.64 | $167K | −0.0% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,460,642 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Landman Yoav | director | Sale | 1,900 @ $86.63 | $165K | −0.0% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,491,438 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Landman Yoav | director | Sale | 1,100 @ $89.37 | $98K | −0.0% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,476,740 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Simon Frederic | director | Sale | 500 @ $95.42 | $48K | −0.0% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 2,984,328 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-13 | Landman Yoav | director | Sale | 27 @ $95.29 | $3K | −0.0% of holding | −0.1% | not yet — horizon still open | 5,448,338 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Shlomi Ben Haim | director | Sale | 9,072 @ $91.23 | $828K | −0.2% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,563,282 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Shlomi Ben Haim | director | Sale | 4,583 @ $90.32 | $414K | −0.1% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,572,354 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
| 2026-08-07 | Shlomi Ben Haim | director | Sale | 830 @ $92.20 | $77K | −0.0% of holding | −2.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 4,562,452 | Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
34 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Vitus Andrew L. | director | Other acquisition | 4,989 | 4,989 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | Vitus Andrew L. | director | Other acquisition | 4,989 | 2,656 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Shlomi Ben Haim | director | Gift | 15,000 | 4,532,237 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Shlomi Ben Haim | director | Gift | 15,000 | 4,547,237 | Form 4 |
| 2026-06-09 | Wassenaar Yvonne | director | Gift | 3,913 | 18,031 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-27 | Vitus Andrew L. | director | Gift | 6,800 | 166,657 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Sela Yossi | director | Award / grant | 4,427 | 108,349 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | ZWARENSTEIN BARRY | director | Award / grant | 4,427 | 34,187 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Vitus Andrew L. | director | Award / grant | 3,542 | 7,645 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Visoso Luis Felipe | director | Award / grant | 3,542 | 18,612 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Wassenaar Yvonne | director | Award / grant | 4,427 | 23,312 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Simon Frederic | director | Award / grant | 3,542 | 3,344,328 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Steele Elisa | director | Award / grant | 4,427 | 24,988 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-21 | Zarmi Sigal | director | Award / grant | 3,542 | 10,847 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Landman Yoav | director | Award / grant | 80,601 | 5,834,038 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-20 | Shlomi Ben Haim | director | Award / grant | 179,115 | 4,894,364 | Form 4 |
| 2026-05-19 | Notman Tali | officer | Gift | 1,100 | 751,498 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Notman Tali | officer | Award / grant | 34,934 | 666,259 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Shlomi Ben Haim | director | Award / grant | 145,560 | 4,887,453 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Landman Yoav | director | Award / grant | 19,796 | 5,888,437 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Grabscheid Eduard | officer | Award / grant | 107,469 | 255,175 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Grabscheid Eduard | officer | Award / grant | 18,632 | 147,706 | Form 4 |
| 2026-02-10 | Notman Tali | officer | Award / grant | 143,292 | 809,551 | Form 4 |
| 2025-12-04 | Vitus Andrew L. | director | Other acquisition | 5,074 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-26 | Simon Frederic | director | Gift | 47,000 | 3,820,786 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-25 | Vitus Andrew L. | director | Gift | 7,000 | 168,383 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-17 | Vitus Andrew L. | director | Other acquisition | 3,675 | 8,749 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-17 | Vitus Andrew L. | director | Other acquisition | 3,675 | 4,103 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-12 | Wassenaar Yvonne | director | Gift | 5,487 | 23,820 | Form 4 |
| 2025-11-01 | Zarmi Sigal | director | Award / grant | 7,305 | 7,305 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | Notman Tali | officer | Option exercise | 1,693 | 660,535 | Form 4 |
| 2025-10-01 | Notman Tali | officer | Option exercise | 1,693 | 0 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-01 | Notman Tali | officer | Option exercise | 1,694 | 688,054 | Form 4 |
| 2025-08-01 | Notman Tali | officer | Option exercise | 1,694 | 1,693 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.