FRMEFirst Merchants CorporationFinancial Services · Banks - Regionalas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $41.06 · now $41.06 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FRME has typically landed between $36.41 and $47.07 — a range of −11.3% to +14.6% from the issuance price $41.06.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($41.06) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where FRME has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $41.06 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$36.41worst · -11.3%$47.07best · +14.6%
  • now $41.06 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $40.95 (-0.3%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $38.78–$43.12
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $36.41–$47.07
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2009-02-03−51.6%−51.6%+2.7%
2009-02-05−49.7%−50.3%+5.5%
2009-02-04−48.7%−49.9%+6.3%
3 best
2009-03-05+65.4%+0.0%+65.4%
2009-03-06+56.3%−1.2%+61.5%
2009-03-11+53.6%+0.0%+53.6%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
65%
+1.2%
n=20
Feb
40%
−1.9%
n=20
Mar
60%
+0.4%
n=20
Apr
45%
+1.2%
n=20
May
40%
−1.5%
n=20
Jun
60%
−0.2%
n=20
Jul
65%
+3.6%
n=20
Aug
35%
−2.7%
n=20
Sep
40%
+0.1%
n=20
Oct
55%
+2.8%
n=20
Nov
60%
+4.3%
n=20
Dec
75%
+3.2%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$45$342026-08-19: 1 insider sale, $176K — FLUHLER STEPHAN2026-06-12: 1 insider sale, $420K — Myers Larry W2026-06-11: 1 insider sale, $415K — Myers Larry W2026-05-05: 1 insider sale, $16 — Myers Larry W2026-02-26: 1 insider sale, $208K — Myers Larry W2026-02-11: 1 insider sale, $175K — FLUHLER STEPHAN2026-02-06: 1 insider sale, $136K — Scurlock Eva D.2025-11-04: 1 insider sale, $202K — FLUHLER STEPHAN2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $202K2026-02: 3 open-market sales, $519K2026-05: 1 open-market sale, $162026-06: 2 open-market sales, $835K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $176K↑ buys↓ salesofficer FLUHLER STEPHAN — Sale on 2026-08-19, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Myers Larry W — Sale on 2026-06-12, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Myers Larry W — Sale on 2026-06-11, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Myers Larry W — Sale on 2026-05-05, filed 17 days after the tradedirector Myers Larry W — Sale on 2026-02-26, filed same dayofficer FLUHLER STEPHAN — Sale on 2026-02-11, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Scurlock Eva D. — Sale on 2026-02-06, filed 3 days after the tradeofficer FLUHLER STEPHAN — Sale on 2025-11-04, filed same day
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-19FLUHLER STEPHANofficerSale4,080 @ $43.20$176K−15.8% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open21,694Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-06-12Myers Larry WdirectorSale10,000 @ $42.00$420K−10.0% of holding+1.9%not yet — horizon still open89,751Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-06-11Myers Larry WdirectorSale10,000 @ $41.50$415K−9.1% of holding+2.9%not yet — horizon still open99,751Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-05-05Myers Larry WdirectorSale0 @ $40.54$16−0.0% of holding−5.7%not yet — horizon still open109,751Form 4 · filed 17 days after the trade
2026-02-26Myers Larry WdirectorSale5,000 @ $41.50$208K−4.4% of holding+0.8%−9.0%109,491Form 4 · filed same day
2026-02-11FLUHLER STEPHANofficerSale4,161 @ $41.96$175K−15.9% of holding−8.3%−8.0%22,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-02-06Scurlock Eva D.officerSale3,227 @ $42.29$136K−13.9% of holding−8.9%−10.5%20,063Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-04FLUHLER STEPHANofficerSale5,689 @ $35.55$202K−17.0% of holding+4.1%+6.8%27,753Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-30Halderman HowarddirectorPurchase4 @ $41.24$165+0.0% of holding+8.8%−3.3%25,131Form 4 · filed 59 days after the trade
2024-12-16Stewart Michael JofficerSale7,248 @ $43.73$317K−7.3% of holding−6.8%−15.3%92,664Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

149 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-03HARDWICK MARK KdirectorAward / grant21,000132,620Form 4
2026-08-03Stewart Michael JofficerAward / grant16,000115,834Form 4
2026-08-03Kawiecki MicheleofficerAward / grant13,00072,404Form 4
2026-08-03Peterson Joseph CofficerAward / grant8,00045,482Form 4
2026-08-03MARTIN JOHNofficerAward / grant8,00071,549Form 4
2026-08-03FLUHLER STEPHANofficerAward / grant5,00025,774Form 4
2026-08-03Harris Steven CofficerAward / grant3,00022,649Form 4
2026-08-03Scurlock Eva D.officerAward / grant70028,223Form 4
2026-08-02Stewart Michael JofficerWithheld for tax6,05999,834Form 4
2026-08-02HARDWICK MARK KdirectorWithheld for tax5,821111,620Form 4
2026-08-02Kawiecki MicheleofficerWithheld for tax2,91059,404Form 4
2026-08-02MARTIN JOHNofficerWithheld for tax1,76163,549Form 4
2026-08-02FLUHLER STEPHANofficerWithheld for tax1,53220,774Form 4
2026-08-02Peterson Joseph CofficerWithheld for tax91937,482Form 4
2026-08-02Harris Steven CofficerWithheld for tax61219,649Form 4
2026-08-02Scurlock Eva D.officerWithheld for tax22427,523Form 4
2026-06-30WOJTOWICZ JEAN LdirectorAward / grant71566,731Form 4
2026-06-30Becher Michael RdirectorAward / grant55429,699Form 4
2026-06-30RECHIN MICHAEL CdirectorAward / grant55490,424Form 4
2026-06-30Sondhi Jason RdirectorAward / grant53610,604Form 4
2026-06-30Halderman HowarddirectorAward / grant53629,773Form 4
2026-06-30Brooks Susan WdirectorAward / grant51812,572Form 4
2026-06-30Fultz Paul GdirectorAward / grant518518Form 4
2026-06-30KELLOGG CLARK CdirectorAward / grant51815,858Form 4
2026-06-30Myers Larry WdirectorAward / grant51890,269Form 4
2026-06-30Chiang MungdirectorAward / grant5008,864Form 4
2026-06-30FISHER MICHAEL JdirectorAward / grant50019,029Form 4
2026-06-30Johnson Kevin DdirectorAward / grant5009,498Form 4
2026-06-23FLUHLER STEPHANofficerAward / grant961,653Form 4
2026-06-23HARDWICK MARK KdirectorAward / grant313,355Form 4
2026-03-31WOJTOWICZ JEAN LdirectorAward / grant80665,519Form 4
2026-03-31Becher Michael RdirectorAward / grant62529,145Form 4
2026-03-31RECHIN MICHAEL CdirectorAward / grant62589,870Form 4
2026-03-31Sondhi Jason RdirectorAward / grant6059,550Form 4
2026-03-31Halderman HowarddirectorAward / grant60529,047Form 4
2026-03-31KELLOGG CLARK CdirectorAward / grant58415,271Form 4
2026-03-31Chiang MungdirectorAward / grant5848,358Form 4
2026-03-31Brooks Susan WdirectorAward / grant58412,015Form 4
2026-03-31Lehman GarydirectorAward / grant56453,775Form 4
2026-03-31Johnson Kevin DdirectorAward / grant5648,983Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.