FRDFriedman Industries, IncorporatedBasic Materials · Steelas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $40.46 · now $40.46 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FRD has typically landed between $32.89 and $52.71 — a range of −18.7% to +30.3% from the issuance price $40.46.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($40.46) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where FRD has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $40.46 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$32.89worst · -18.7%$52.71best · +30.3%
  • now $40.46 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $41.42 (+2.4%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $37.53–$45.31
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $32.89–$52.71
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2009-01-09−42.1%−45.8%+0.0%
2008-09-11−40.7%−40.7%+1.8%
2008-09-12−36.3%−41.7%+0.0%
3 best
2008-12-09+97.5%+0.0%+97.5%
2026-05-19+80.5%−1.0%+80.5%
2023-06-29+79.1%+0.0%+79.1%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
45%
−0.8%
n=20
Feb
50%
−0.9%
n=20
Mar
40%
−0.1%
n=20
Apr
75%
+4.8%
n=20
May
50%
+1.8%
n=20
Jun
65%
+5.7%
n=20
Jul
50%
+3.2%
n=20
Aug
60%
+3.8%
n=20
Sep
45%
−2.2%
n=20
Oct
40%
+0.0%
n=20
Nov
40%
−1.1%
n=20
Dec
60%
+5.3%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$48$172026-03-18: 1 insider purchase, $7K — Chhibbar Gaurav2026-03-09: 1 insider purchase, $9K — Taylor Mike J2026-03-03: 1 insider purchase, $7K — Taylor Mike J2026-02-23: 1 insider purchase, $2K — Taylor Mike J2026-02-19: 1 insider purchase, $18K — Chhibbar Gaurav2026-02-18: 1 insider purchase, $11K — Taylor Mike J2025-12-02: 1 insider purchase, $9K — Taylor Mike J2025-12-01: 1 insider purchase, $10K — Scott Sandra Kay2025-11-28: 1 insider purchase, $10K — Scott Sandra Kay2025-11-24: 1 insider purchase, $19K — Taylor Mike J2025-11-21: 1 insider purchase, $19K — Taylor Mike J2025-11: 3 open-market purchases, $49K2025-12: 2 open-market purchases, $20K2026-02: 3 open-market purchases, $31K2026-03: 3 open-market purchases, $23K↑ buys↓ salesofficer Chhibbar Gaurav — Purchase on 2026-03-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Taylor Mike J — Purchase on 2026-03-09, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Taylor Mike J — Purchase on 2026-03-03, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Taylor Mike J — Purchase on 2026-02-23, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Chhibbar Gaurav — Purchase on 2026-02-19, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Taylor Mike J — Purchase on 2026-02-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Taylor Mike J — Purchase on 2025-12-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Scott Sandra Kay — Purchase on 2025-12-01, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Scott Sandra Kay — Purchase on 2025-11-28, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Taylor Mike J — Purchase on 2025-11-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Taylor Mike J — Purchase on 2025-11-21, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-03-18Chhibbar GauravofficerPurchase400 @ $16.94$7K+0.8% of holding+5.9%not yet — horizon still open51,400Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-09Taylor Mike JdirectorPurchase500 @ $18.00$9K+0.2% of holding−0.2%+137.4%223,166Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-03Taylor Mike JdirectorPurchase400 @ $18.00$7K+0.2% of holding−3.1%+125.5%222,666Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-23Taylor Mike JdirectorPurchase100 @ $18.00$2K+0.0% of holding+3.6%+116.4%222,266Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-19Chhibbar GauravofficerPurchase1,000 @ $18.35$18K+2.0% of holding+0.4%+122.0%51,000Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2026-02-18Taylor Mike JdirectorPurchase600 @ $18.75$11K+0.3% of holding−4.2%+127.8%222,166Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-02Taylor Mike JdirectorPurchase500 @ $18.74$9K+0.2% of holding+7.3%+18.7%221,566Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-01Scott Sandra KaydirectorPurchase500 @ $20.27$10K+5.0% of holding+9.9%+17.7%10,569Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-28Scott Sandra KaydirectorPurchase500 @ $20.05$10K+5.2% of holding+2.3%+8.8%10,069Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-24Taylor Mike JdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $19.47$19K+0.5% of holding+4.2%+9.7%221,066Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-21Taylor Mike JdirectorPurchase1,000 @ $19.28$19K+0.5% of holding−0.0%+6.5%220,066Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-02-11Stevenson Tim ScottdirectorPurchase1,500 @ $17.23$26K+5.5% of holding−0.6%−4.2%28,675Form 4 · filed same day
2025-01-29Scott Sandra KaydirectorPurchase500 @ $14.34$7K+5.8% of holding+14.9%−0.3%9,112Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-28Scott Sandra KaydirectorPurchase500 @ $14.23$7K+6.2% of holding+23.3%+5.9%8,612Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-01-27Scott Sandra KaydirectorPurchase700 @ $14.21$10K+9.4% of holding+21.5%+5.4%8,112Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-01-15Taylor Mike JdirectorPurchase2,500 @ $14.10$35K+1.5% of holding+20.6%+2.2%169,154Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-01-14Taylor Mike JdirectorPurchase520 @ $14.50$8K+0.3% of holding+16.6%+3.2%166,654Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-01-13Taylor Mike JdirectorPurchase1,980 @ $14.50$29K+1.2% of holding+13.5%+0.5%166,134Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

19 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-06-03Chhibbar GauravofficerAward / grant15,00066,400Form 4
2026-06-03Taylor Mike JdirectorAward / grant30,000253,166Form 4
2026-06-03LaRue AlexofficerAward / grant10,00041,646Form 4
2025-11-01Chhibbar GauravofficerAward / grant50,00050,000Form 4
2025-10-01Taylor Sharon LdirectorAward / grant4577,869Form 4
2025-10-01Hanson Michael DonndirectorAward / grant457457Form 4
2025-10-01Stevenson Tim ScottdirectorAward / grant45729,132Form 4
2025-10-01Scott Sandra KaydirectorAward / grant4579,569Form 4
2025-10-01Reichenthal Max AlandirectorAward / grant45733,889Form 4
2025-10-01WILLIAMS JOE LdirectorAward / grant45732,702Form 4
2025-04-01LaRue AlexofficerWithheld for tax29622,315Form 4
2025-04-01LaRue AlexofficerAward / grant9,33131,646Form 4
2025-04-01Taylor Mike JdirectorAward / grant49,912219,066Form 4
2025-01-02Scott Sandra KaydirectorAward / grant6717,412Form 4
2025-01-02Reichenthal Max AlandirectorAward / grant67133,432Form 4
2025-01-02Taylor Sharon LdirectorAward / grant6717,412Form 4
2025-01-02WILLIAMS JOE LdirectorAward / grant67132,245Form 4
2025-01-02Agrawal Durga DdirectorAward / grant67127,175Form 4
2025-01-02Stevenson Tim ScottdirectorAward / grant67127,175Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.