FRFirst Industrial Realty Trust, Inc.Real Estate · REIT - Industrialas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $61.41 · now $61.41 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FR has typically landed between $55.18 and $67.82 — a range of −10.1% to +10.4% from the issuance price $61.41.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

5,003 overlapping 1 month windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($61.41) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where FR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $61.41 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$55.18worst · -10.1%$67.82best · +10.4%
  • now $61.41 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $61.82 (+0.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $59.26–$64.38
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $55.18–$67.82
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 5,003 windows spanning 2006-09-26 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2008-09-26−79.7%−79.7%+0.0%
2008-09-29−78.0%−78.7%+3.3%
2008-09-30−78.0%−79.3%+0.0%
3 best
2009-04-08+149.7%+0.0%+149.7%
2009-04-06+128.9%−10.2%+128.9%
2009-04-07+121.4%+0.0%+154.8%

5,003 overlapping windows · 2006-09-26 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~20 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
55%
+1.0%
n=20
Feb
60%
−1.6%
n=20
Mar
70%
+4.3%
n=20
Apr
50%
+2.9%
n=20
May
60%
+0.1%
n=20
Jun
50%
−1.9%
n=20
Jul
65%
+3.0%
n=20
Aug
55%
−0.2%
n=20
Sep
35%
+0.0%
n=20
Oct
70%
+1.8%
n=20
Nov
75%
+1.5%
n=20
Dec
55%
+1.9%
n=20

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$69$472025-12-17: 2 insider sales, $40K — YAP JOHANNSON L …2025-12: 2 open-market sales, $40K↑ buys↓ salesofficer YAP JOHANNSON L — Sale on 2025-12-17, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer YAP JOHANNSON L — Sale on 2025-12-17, filed 2 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-12-17YAP JOHANNSON LofficerSale340 @ $58.39$20K−7.6% of holding−0.0%−2.3%4,110Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-17YAP JOHANNSON LofficerSale340 @ $58.34$20K−8.3% of holding−0.0%−2.3%3,770Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

43 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-07-27MUSIL SCOTT AofficerOther acquisition2,1750Form 4
2026-07-27MUSIL SCOTT AofficerOther acquisition2,60389,995Form 4
2026-06-01Schmitz Frank E.directorAward / grant2,2932,293Form 4
2026-04-30Olsen DenisedirectorAward / grant2,41916,572Form 4
2026-04-30DOMINSKI MATTHEWdirectorAward / grant2,41939,387Form 4
2026-04-30HACKETT H PATRICK JRdirectorAward / grant2,41916,572Form 4
2026-04-30Smith Marcus L.directorAward / grant2,4199,855Form 4
2026-04-30BAZEMORE TERESA BRYCEdirectorAward / grant2,41914,526Form 4
2026-02-19Schultz PeterofficerGift10095,374Form 4
2026-02-19Schultz PeterofficerGift10095,274Form 4
2026-02-19Schultz PeterofficerGift10095,374Form 4
2026-02-19Schultz PeterofficerGift10095,274Form 4
2026-01-01YAP JOHANNSON LofficerAward / grant40,446225,406Form 4
2026-01-01Baccile Peter E.directorAward / grant28,407527,468Form 4
2026-01-01Matthews Rice JenniferofficerAward / grant3,24034,396Form 4
2026-01-01YAP JOHANNSON LofficerAward / grant10,896236,302Form 4
2026-01-01MUSIL SCOTT AofficerAward / grant23,57085,764Form 4
2026-01-01MUSIL SCOTT AofficerAward / grant6,83492,598Form 4
2026-01-01Schultz PeterofficerAward / grant24,341136,217Form 4
2026-01-01Schultz PeterofficerAward / grant8,226144,443Form 4
2026-01-01Baccile Peter E.directorAward / grant97,329499,061Form 4
2026-01-01Matthews Rice JenniferofficerAward / grant13,34231,156Form 4
2025-12-17MUSIL SCOTT AofficerOther acquisition65,02313,625Form 4
2025-12-17MUSIL SCOTT AofficerOther acquisition49,56362,194Form 4
2025-04-30BAZEMORE TERESA BRYCEdirectorAward / grant2,52212,107Form 4
2025-04-30Smith Marcus L.directorAward / grant2,5227,436Form 4
2025-04-30Olsen DenisedirectorAward / grant2,52214,153Form 4
2025-04-30DOMINSKI MATTHEWdirectorAward / grant2,52236,968Form 4
2025-04-30HACKETT H PATRICK JRdirectorAward / grant2,52214,153Form 4
2025-01-02Baccile Peter E.directorAward / grant42,560370,325Form 4
2025-01-02Baccile Peter E.directorAward / grant31,407401,732Form 4
2025-01-02Matthews Rice JenniferofficerAward / grant3,57017,814Form 4
2025-01-02MUSIL SCOTT AofficerAward / grant9,931104,329Form 4
2025-01-02MUSIL SCOTT AofficerAward / grant7,428111,757Form 4
2025-01-02Matthews Rice JenniferofficerAward / grant5,81714,244Form 4
2025-01-02YAP JOHANNSON LofficerAward / grant17,024172,912Form 4
2025-01-02YAP JOHANNSON LofficerAward / grant12,048184,960Form 4
2025-01-02Schultz PeterofficerAward / grant10,640102,780Form 4
2025-01-02Schultz PeterofficerAward / grant9,096111,876Form 4
2024-12-17Matthews Rice JenniferofficerGift42526,167Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.