Issued 2026-09-16 at $34.84 · now $34.84 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)
Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FPS has typically landed between $22.52 and $51.49 — a range of −35.3% to +47.8% from the issuance price $34.84.
- Actual close
- Typical path (median)
- Middle 50% of outcomes
- 90% range
133 overlapping 1 month windows · 2026-02-05 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch).
The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($34.84) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.
Where FPS has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $34.84 — the range is history, not a prediction.
- now $34.84 (+0.0%)
- typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $33.71 (-3.2%)
- middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $26.14–$41.28
- 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $22.52–$51.49
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 133 windows spanning 2026-02-05 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
| Start | Return | Max drop | Max rise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 worst | |||
| 2026-06-29 | −46.8% | −46.8% | +1.6% |
| 2026-06-26 | −41.2% | −41.2% | +1.3% |
| 2026-06-30 | −40.4% | −47.6% | +0.0% |
| 3 best | |||
| 2026-04-15 | +55.0% | +0.0% | +55.0% |
| 2026-05-05 | +54.0% | −5.4% | +54.0% |
| 2026-04-29 | +50.6% | +0.0% | +50.6% |
133 overlapping windows · 2026-02-05 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked
Reported insider & political trades
Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares @ price | Value | Ownership Δ | vs S&P 1m | vs S&P 6m | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 43,650,000 | — | −34.4% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 83,355,094 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 43,650,000 | — | −34.4% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 83,355,094 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 43,650,000 | — | −34.4% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 83,355,094 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 43,650,000 | — | −34.4% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 83,355,094 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 43,650,000 | — | −34.4% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 83,355,094 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 43,650,000 | — | −34.4% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 83,355,094 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 43,650,000 | — | −34.4% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 83,355,094 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 43,650,000 | — | −34.4% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 83,355,094 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 43,650,000 | — | −34.4% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 83,355,094 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 43,650,000 | — | −34.4% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 83,355,094 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 43,650,000 | — | −34.4% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 83,355,094 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 43,650,000 | — | −34.4% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 83,355,094 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 43,650,000 | — | −34.4% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 83,355,094 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 43,650,000 | — | −34.4% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 83,355,094 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 43,650,000 | — | −34.4% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 83,355,094 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 43,650,000 | — | −34.4% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 83,355,094 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 43,650,000 | — | −34.4% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 83,355,094 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 43,650,000 | — | −34.4% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 83,355,094 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 43,650,000 | — | −34.4% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 83,355,094 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 43,650,000 | — | −34.4% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 83,355,094 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 43,650,000 | — | −34.4% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 83,355,094 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 43,650,000 | — | −34.4% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 83,355,094 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 43,650,000 | — | −34.4% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 83,355,094 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 43,650,000 | — | −34.4% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 83,355,094 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 43,650,000 | — | −34.4% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 83,355,094 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 43,650,000 | — | −34.4% of holding | −19.7% | not yet — horizon still open | 83,355,094 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 48,622,000 | — | −30.2% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 112,449,169 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 48,622,000 | — | −30.2% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 112,449,169 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 48,622,000 | — | −30.2% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 112,449,169 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 48,622,000 | — | −30.2% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 112,449,169 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 48,622,000 | — | −30.2% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 112,449,169 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 48,622,000 | — | −30.2% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 112,449,169 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 48,622,000 | — | −30.2% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 112,449,169 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 48,622,000 | — | −30.2% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 112,449,169 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 48,622,000 | — | −30.2% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 112,449,169 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 48,622,000 | — | −30.2% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 112,449,169 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 48,622,000 | — | −30.2% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 112,449,169 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 48,622,000 | — | −30.2% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 112,449,169 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 48,622,000 | — | −30.2% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 112,449,169 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 48,622,000 | — | −30.2% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 112,449,169 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 48,622,000 | — | −30.2% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 112,449,169 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 48,622,000 | — | −30.2% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 112,449,169 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 48,622,000 | — | −30.2% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 112,449,169 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 48,622,000 | — | −30.2% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 112,449,169 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 48,622,000 | — | −30.2% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 112,449,169 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 48,622,000 | — | −30.2% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 112,449,169 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 48,622,000 | — | −30.2% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 112,449,169 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 48,622,000 | — | −30.2% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 112,449,169 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 48,622,000 | — | −30.2% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 112,449,169 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 48,622,000 | — | −30.2% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 112,449,169 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 48,622,000 | — | −30.2% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 112,449,169 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-06-01 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 48,622,000 | — | −30.2% of holding | −10.0% | not yet — horizon still open | 112,449,169 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 34,500,000 | — | −19.2% of holding | +17.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 145,218,850 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 34,500,000 | — | −19.2% of holding | +17.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 145,218,850 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 34,500,000 | — | −19.2% of holding | +17.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 145,218,850 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 34,500,000 | — | −19.2% of holding | +17.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 145,218,850 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 34,500,000 | — | −19.2% of holding | +17.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 145,218,850 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 34,500,000 | — | −19.2% of holding | +17.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 145,218,850 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 34,500,000 | — | −19.2% of holding | +17.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 145,218,850 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
| 2026-03-30 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Sale | 34,500,000 | — | −19.2% of holding | +17.2% | not yet — horizon still open | 145,218,850 | Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade |
The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.
216 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases
Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.
| Date | Person | Role | Action | Shares | Owned after | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-01 | Lund Inez | officer | Award / grant | 17,147 | 17,147 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Lund Inez | officer | Award / grant | 7,043 | 7,043 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Niederpruem Gary John | director | Award / grant | 214,335 | 214,335 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Niederpruem Gary John | director | Award / grant | 88,029 | 88,029 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Hottinger Tyson | officer | Award / grant | 25,721 | 25,721 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Hottinger Tyson | officer | Award / grant | 10,564 | 10,564 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Fiedler Ryan | officer | Award / grant | 6,859 | 6,859 | Form 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | Fiedler Ryan | officer | Award / grant | 2,817 | 2,817 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Disposition | 14,555,925 | 29,901,795 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Award / grant | 14,555,925 | 127,005,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Disposition | 14,555,925 | 29,901,795 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Award / grant | 14,555,925 | 127,005,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Disposition | 14,555,925 | 29,901,795 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Award / grant | 14,555,925 | 127,005,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Disposition | 14,555,925 | 29,901,795 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Award / grant | 14,555,925 | 127,005,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Disposition | 14,555,925 | 29,901,795 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Award / grant | 14,555,925 | 127,005,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Disposition | 14,555,925 | 29,901,795 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Award / grant | 14,555,925 | 127,005,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Award / grant | 14,555,925 | 127,005,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Disposition | 14,555,925 | 29,901,795 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Award / grant | 14,555,925 | 127,005,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Disposition | 14,555,925 | 29,901,795 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Award / grant | 14,555,925 | 127,005,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Disposition | 14,555,925 | 29,901,795 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Award / grant | 14,555,925 | 127,005,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Disposition | 14,555,925 | 29,901,795 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Award / grant | 14,555,925 | 127,005,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Disposition | 14,555,925 | 29,901,795 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Award / grant | 14,555,925 | 127,005,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Disposition | 14,555,925 | 29,901,795 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Award / grant | 14,555,925 | 127,005,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Disposition | 14,555,925 | 29,901,795 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Award / grant | 14,555,925 | 127,005,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Disposition | 14,555,925 | 29,901,795 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Award / grant | 14,555,925 | 127,005,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Disposition | 14,555,925 | 29,901,795 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Award / grant | 14,555,925 | 127,005,094 | Form 4 |
| 2026-07-06 | Neos Partners, LP | director | Disposition | 14,555,925 | 29,901,795 | Form 4 |
Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.
Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.
Congressional disclosures
No congressional trades disclosed for this company.
Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.