FPHFive Point Holdings, LLCReal Estate · Real Estate - Developmentas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $5.09 · now $5.09 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FPH has typically landed between $4.22 and $6.09 — a range of −17.0% to +19.6% from the issuance price $5.09.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

2,330 overlapping 1 month windows · 2017-05-10 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($5.09) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where FPH has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $5.09 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$4.22worst · -17.0%$6.09best · +19.6%
  • now $5.09 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $5.03 (-1.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $4.71–$5.35
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $4.22–$6.09
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 2,330 windows spanning 2017-05-10 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-21−57.1%−57.3%+0.0%
2020-02-18−56.4%−56.4%+2.4%
2020-02-20−53.7%−57.1%+0.6%
3 best
2024-12-30+81.0%+0.0%+81.0%
2024-12-27+79.3%+0.0%+79.3%
2024-12-23+72.8%−0.6%+72.8%

2,330 overlapping windows · 2017-05-10 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~10 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
67%
+13.6%
n=9
Feb
44%
−3.7%
n=9
Mar
44%
−3.3%
n=9
Apr
44%
+1.0%
n=9
May
44%
−3.0%
n=9
Jun
50%
−1.5%
n=10
Jul
70%
+4.9%
n=10
Aug
20%
−3.6%
n=10
Sep
40%
−3.0%
n=10
Oct
11%
−9.0%
n=9
Nov
78%
+3.4%
n=9
Dec
44%
+2.2%
n=9

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$6$52026-03-09: 1 insider sale, $581K — McWilliams Greg2025-12-04: 1 insider sale, $112K — Tobler Kim2025-12: 1 open-market sale, $112K2026-03: 1 open-market sale, $581K↑ buys↓ salesofficer McWilliams Greg — Sale on 2026-03-09, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Tobler Kim — Sale on 2025-12-04, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-03-09McWilliams GregofficerSale111,037 @ $5.23$581K−15.9% of holding−4.3%−16.2%588,735Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-12-04Tobler KimofficerSale18,714 @ $6.01$112K−34.4% of holding−4.3%−22.8%35,636Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-08Tobler KimofficerSale18,496 @ $5.78$107K−50.8% of holding−4.5%−11.4%17,927Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

155 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-09-09ROSSI MICHAEL EdirectorAward / grant15,77915,779Form 4
2026-09-09Levinson SamdirectorAward / grant42,40693,007Form 4
2026-09-09Brown KathleendirectorAward / grant15,779151,483Form 4
2026-09-09FOSTER JONATHAN FdirectorAward / grant15,779151,458Form 4
2026-09-09WINER MICHAEL HdirectorAward / grant15,779168,662Form 4
2026-09-09Hunt Gary HdirectorAward / grant15,77915,779Form 4
2026-09-09Browning WilliamdirectorAward / grant15,779133,684Form 4
2026-06-18Hunt Gary HdirectorGift10,00074,138Form 4
2026-04-08Hedigan DanielofficerWithheld for tax32,903674,655Form 4
2026-04-08Alvarado MichaelofficerWithheld for tax23,802945,645Form 4
2026-04-08Tobler KimofficerWithheld for tax16,80269,745Form 4
2026-04-08McWilliams GregofficerWithheld for tax16,101604,279Form 4
2026-04-08McWilliams GregofficerOption exercise31,6451,189,582Form 4
2026-04-08Alvarado MichaelofficerAward / grant135,0002,154,762Form 4
2026-04-08Tobler KimofficerAward / grant80,0001,312,834Form 4
2026-04-08McWilliams GregofficerAward / grant90,0001,101,227Form 4
2026-04-08McWilliams GregofficerAward / grant120,0001,221,227Form 4
2026-04-08Tobler KimofficerAward / grant94,5001,106,834Form 4
2026-04-08Tobler KimofficerAward / grant126,0001,232,834Form 4
2026-04-08Tobler KimofficerOption exercise33,0211,279,813Form 4
2026-04-08Hedigan DanielofficerAward / grant186,0002,196,909Form 4
2026-04-08Hedigan DanielofficerAward / grant248,0002,444,909Form 4
2026-04-08Hedigan DanielofficerAward / grant200,0002,644,909Form 4
2026-04-08Hedigan DanielofficerOption exercise64,6672,580,242Form 4
2026-04-08Alvarado MichaelofficerOption exercise46,7802,407,982Form 4
2026-04-08Alvarado MichaelofficerAward / grant120,0002,454,762Form 4
2026-04-08Alvarado MichaelofficerAward / grant180,0002,334,762Form 4
2026-04-08Hedigan DanielofficerOption exercise64,667707,558Form 4
2026-04-08McWilliams GregofficerOption exercise31,645620,380Form 4
2026-04-08McWilliams GregofficerOption exercise31,645620,380Form 4
2026-04-08Tobler KimofficerOption exercise33,02186,547Form 4
2026-04-08Alvarado MichaelofficerOption exercise46,780969,447Form 4
2026-04-08Hedigan DanielofficerOption exercise64,667707,558Form 4
2026-04-08Alvarado MichaelofficerOption exercise46,780969,447Form 4
2026-04-08Tobler KimofficerOption exercise33,02186,547Form 4
2026-03-09Hedigan DanielofficerWithheld for tax162,855642,891Form 4
2026-03-09Alvarado MichaelofficerWithheld for tax148,050922,667Form 4
2026-03-09Hedigan DanielofficerWithheld for tax100,392485,672Form 4
2026-03-09Alvarado MichaelofficerWithheld for tax91,266779,740Form 4
2026-03-09McWilliams GregofficerWithheld for tax68,448481,540Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.