FOXFFox Factory Holding Corp.Consumer Cyclical · Auto - Partsas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $19.33 · now $19.33 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FOXF has typically landed between $15.15 and $23.11 — a range of −21.6% to +19.6% from the issuance price $19.33.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

3,275 overlapping 1 month windows · 2013-08-08 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($19.33) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where FOXF has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $19.33 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$15.15worst · -21.6%$23.11best · +19.6%
  • now $19.33 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $18.71 (-3.2%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $16.94–$20.48
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $15.15–$23.11
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 3,275 windows spanning 2013-08-08 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-03-04−44.2%−44.2%+0.0%
2025-10-22−44.1%−44.1%+5.5%
2025-10-24−43.3%−47.0%+0.0%
3 best
2020-04-27+66.5%+0.0%+66.5%
2020-05-06+64.2%−0.1%+64.2%
2020-05-07+61.5%−0.5%+63.6%

3,275 overlapping windows · 2013-08-08 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~14 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
31%
−2.0%
n=13
Feb
46%
−2.0%
n=13
Mar
54%
−2.3%
n=13
Apr
46%
−0.3%
n=13
May
77%
+6.9%
n=13
Jun
77%
+6.8%
n=13
Jul
77%
+5.5%
n=13
Aug
46%
+1.7%
n=13
Sep
50%
−3.3%
n=14
Oct
38%
−2.4%
n=13
Nov
62%
−0.9%
n=13
Dec
46%
+2.8%
n=13

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$30$132025-11-14: 1 insider purchase, $312K — DENNISON MICHAEL C.2025-11: 1 open-market purchase, $312K↑ buys↓ salesdirector DENNISON MICHAEL C. — Purchase on 2025-11-14, filed 3 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2025-11-14DENNISON MICHAEL C.directorPurchase22,000 @ $14.20$312K+9.8% of holding+24.5%+3.9%246,786Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

42 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-05-08JOHNSON SIDNEYdirectorAward / grant8,98923,841Form 4
2026-05-08HLAY JEANdirectorAward / grant9,83227,908Form 4
2026-05-08FETTER ELIZABETH AdirectorAward / grant8,98923,591Form 4
2026-05-08Bazaar Alan LeedirectorAward / grant8,98911,078Form 4
2026-05-08DUNCAN THOMAS E.directorAward / grant8,98927,954Form 4
2026-05-08Grimm Douglas J.directorAward / grant8,98910,125Form 4
2026-05-02Schemm Dennis CharlesdirectorWithheld for tax52486,590Form 4
2026-05-02Enick BrendanofficerWithheld for tax13424,599Form 4
2026-03-25Grimm Douglas J.directorAward / grant1,1361,136Form 4
2026-03-04DENNISON MICHAEL C.directorWithheld for tax10,641263,450Form 4
2026-03-04Schemm Dennis CharlesdirectorWithheld for tax2,49751,102Form 4
2026-03-04Merchant Toby DofficerWithheld for tax1,71334,213Form 4
2026-03-04Enick BrendanofficerWithheld for tax79215,037Form 4
2026-03-03Enick BrendanofficerAward / grant9,69624,733Form 4
2026-03-03Bazaar Alan LeedirectorAward / grant2,0892,089Form 4
2026-03-03DENNISON MICHAEL C.directorAward / grant149,585413,035Form 4
2026-03-03Merchant Toby DofficerAward / grant23,54657,759Form 4
2026-03-03Schemm Dennis CharlesdirectorAward / grant36,01287,114Form 4
2026-02-27DENNISON MICHAEL C.directorWithheld for tax7,174274,091Form 4
2026-02-27Schemm Dennis CharlesdirectorWithheld for tax1,36553,599Form 4
2026-02-27Merchant Toby DofficerWithheld for tax1,19835,926Form 4
2026-02-27Enick BrendanofficerWithheld for tax40115,829Form 4
2026-02-25DENNISON MICHAEL C.directorAward / grant34,479281,265Form 4
2026-02-25Enick BrendanofficerAward / grant5,43716,230Form 4
2026-02-25Schemm Dennis CharlesdirectorAward / grant14,34154,964Form 4
2026-02-25Merchant Toby DofficerAward / grant8,70437,124Form 4
2025-05-09HLAY JEANdirectorAward / grant6,72918,076Form 4
2025-05-09JOHNSON SIDNEYdirectorAward / grant6,72914,852Form 4
2025-05-09FETTER ELIZABETH AdirectorAward / grant6,72914,602Form 4
2025-05-09Waitman TeddirectorAward / grant6,72926,138Form 4
2025-05-09MENDENHALL DUDLEY WdirectorAward / grant7,36021,882Form 4
2025-05-09DUNCAN THOMAS E.directorAward / grant6,72918,965Form 4
2025-05-02Schemm Dennis CharlesdirectorWithheld for tax52840,623Form 4
2025-05-02Enick BrendanofficerWithheld for tax15810,793Form 4
2025-03-04Enick BrendanofficerAward / grant6,69510,951Form 4
2025-03-04Merchant Toby DofficerAward / grant16,25928,420Form 4
2025-03-04DENNISON MICHAEL C.directorAward / grant103,290224,786Form 4
2025-03-04Schemm Dennis CharlesdirectorAward / grant24,86741,151Form 4
2025-02-27DENNISON MICHAEL C.directorWithheld for tax13,570121,496Form 4
2025-02-27Merchant Toby DofficerWithheld for tax2,11912,161Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.