FOURShift4 Payments, Inc.Technology · Software - Infrastructureas of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $42.09 · now $42.09 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FOUR has typically landed between $32.69 and $51.41 — a range of −22.3% to +22.2% from the issuance price $42.09.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

1,557 overlapping 1 month windows · 2020-06-05 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($42.09) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where FOUR has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $42.09 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$32.69worst · -22.3%$51.41best · +22.2%
  • now $42.09 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $41.81 (-0.7%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $37.59–$46.02
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $32.69–$51.41
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 1,557 windows spanning 2020-06-05 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2022-05-17−35.1%−35.1%+1.7%
2022-05-19−32.8%−35.0%+1.9%
2022-04-07−32.5%−32.5%+4.8%
3 best
2022-03-07+61.3%+0.0%+64.4%
2022-07-14+58.1%+0.0%+58.1%
2022-07-12+55.8%+0.0%+55.8%

1,557 overlapping windows · 2020-06-05 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~7 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
33%
−0.4%
n=6
Feb
50%
−1.7%
n=6
Mar
50%
+0.8%
n=6
Apr
50%
−2.7%
n=6
May
50%
+1.1%
n=6
Jun
83%
+0.6%
n=6
Jul
71%
+3.1%
n=7
Aug
43%
+3.2%
n=7
Sep
14%
−3.7%
n=7
Oct
50%
−6.4%
n=6
Nov
83%
+14.2%
n=6
Dec
67%
+7.3%
n=6

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$92$362026-05-12: 1 insider purchase, $7.8M — Isaacman Jared2026-05-11: 1 insider purchase, $8.1M — Isaacman Jared2026-03-10: 1 insider purchase, $2.0M — Isaacman Jared2026-03-02: 1 insider purchase, $2.0M — Isaacman Jared2026-02-27: 1 insider purchase, $7.0M — Isaacman Jared2026-02-26: 1 insider purchase, $6.6M — Isaacman Jared2025-12-11: 3 insider sales, $1.2M — Lauber David Taylor, Disman Nancy …2025-11-12: 1 insider sale, $103K — Whalen James J.2025-09-15: 1 insider sale, $436K — Disman Nancy2025-09-03: 1 insider sale, $221K — Lauber David Taylor2025-08-15: 1 insider sale, $71K — Whalen James J.2025-08: 2 open-market purchases, $16.3M2025-08: 1 open-market sale, $71K2025-09: 2 open-market sales, $658K2025-11: 1 open-market sale, $103K2025-12: 3 open-market sales, $1.2M2026-02: 2 open-market purchases, $13.7M2026-03: 2 open-market purchases, $4.0M2026-05: 2 open-market purchases, $15.9M↑ buys↓ salesdirector Isaacman Jared — Purchase on 2026-05-12, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Isaacman Jared — Purchase on 2026-05-11, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Isaacman Jared — Purchase on 2026-03-10, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Isaacman Jared — Purchase on 2026-03-02, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Isaacman Jared — Purchase on 2026-02-27, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Isaacman Jared — Purchase on 2026-02-26, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Lauber David Taylor — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Disman Nancy — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Lauber David Taylor — Sale on 2025-12-11, filed 4 days after the tradeofficer Whalen James J. — Sale on 2025-11-12, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Disman Nancy — Sale on 2025-09-15, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Lauber David Taylor — Sale on 2025-09-03, filed 2 days after the tradeofficer Whalen James J. — Sale on 2025-08-15, filed 4 days after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-05-12Isaacman JareddirectorPurchase193,000 @ $40.66$7.8M+12.1% of holding−3.2%not yet — horizon still open1,787,455Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-05-11Isaacman JareddirectorPurchase195,500 @ $41.41$8.1M+14.0% of holding−12.2%not yet — horizon still open1,594,455Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-03-10Isaacman JareddirectorPurchase43,827 @ $45.75$2.0M+3.2% of holding−10.6%−25.4%1,410,727Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-03-02Isaacman JareddirectorPurchase45,693 @ $43.83$2.0M+3.5% of holding−1.8%−22.3%1,366,900Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-02-27Isaacman JareddirectorPurchase159,244 @ $44.15$7.0M+13.7% of holding+6.6%−13.0%1,321,207Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2026-02-26Isaacman JareddirectorPurchase136,993 @ $48.38$6.6M+13.4% of holding−0.4%−21.7%1,161,963Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-11Lauber David TaylordirectorSale10,681 @ $68.91$736K−3.7% of holding−6.0%−52.3%274,907Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-11Disman NancydirectorSale5,000 @ $69.50$348K−3.7% of holding−6.0%−52.3%130,420Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-12-11Lauber David TaylordirectorSale1,319 @ $69.77$92K−0.5% of holding−6.0%−52.3%273,588Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-12Whalen James J.officerSale1,438 @ $71.50$103K−2.6% of holding−5.8%−51.4%54,736Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-15Disman NancydirectorSale5,000 @ $87.28$436K−3.6% of holding−10.0%−49.6%135,420Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-09-03Lauber David TaylordirectorSale2,500 @ $88.59$221K−0.9% of holding−15.0%−51.0%285,588Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-08-15Whalen James J.officerSale794 @ $89.89$71K−1.4% of holding−7.6%−44.8%56,324Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-08-11Isaacman JareddirectorPurchase104,705 @ $83.61$8.8M+12.5% of holding+0.6%−37.4%939,715Form 4 · filed same day
2025-08-08Isaacman JareddirectorPurchase91,721 @ $81.90$7.5M+12.3% of holding+4.8%−37.7%835,010Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-06-30Goldsmith-Grover SarahdirectorSale2,957 @ $100.00$296K−30.0% of holding+2.3%−45.8%6,884Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-30Davis Karen RoterdirectorSale750 @ $100.00$75K−8.4% of holding+2.3%−45.8%8,209Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-06-16Disman NancydirectorSale8,258 @ $90.23$745K−4.6% of holding+11.5%−41.3%169,364Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-16Disman NancydirectorSale1,742 @ $90.80$158K−1.0% of holding+11.5%−41.3%167,622Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-12Davis Karen RoterdirectorSale2,757 @ $94.53$261K−29.5% of holding+6.2%−40.9%6,592Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-12Goldsmith-Grover SarahdirectorSale1,000 @ $94.53$95K−11.8% of holding+6.2%−40.9%7,474Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-06-09Frankel JordanofficerSale3,750 @ $94.41$354K−1.6% of holding+3.7%−44.8%228,704Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-09Frankel JordanofficerSale1,250 @ $95.06$119K−0.5% of holding+3.7%−44.8%227,454Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-06-03Lauber David TaylordirectorSale2,500 @ $94.47$236K−1.0% of holding+1.7%−40.6%256,981Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-03-14Disman NancydirectorSale5,847 @ $85.33$499K−3.2% of holding−5.5%−16.4%177,722Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-14Disman NancydirectorSale4,053 @ $84.44$342K−2.2% of holding−5.5%−16.4%183,569Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-14Disman NancydirectorSale100 @ $86.34$9K−0.1% of holding−5.5%−16.4%177,622Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-03-10Frankel JordanofficerSale12,500 @ $88.36$1.1M−5.1% of holding−6.4%−18.9%232,454Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-03-06Lauber David TaylordirectorSale2,500 @ $91.70$229K−0.9% of holding−7.2%−15.5%264,856Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-03-04Whalen James J.officerSale195 @ $94.00$18K−0.3% of holding−6.5%−17.9%57,118Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-16Disman NancydirectorSale12,157 @ $100.12$1.2M−6.6% of holding+11.3%−9.9%170,802Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-16Disman NancydirectorSale7,843 @ $101.37$795K−4.6% of holding+11.3%−9.9%162,959Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2024-12-11Frankel JordanofficerSale3,200 @ $99.35$318K−1.4% of holding+4.2%−10.0%222,112Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-11Frankel JordanofficerSale1,800 @ $98.40$177K−0.8% of holding+4.2%−10.0%225,312Form 4 · filed same day
2024-12-05Whalen James J.officerSale1,462 @ $101.07$148K−3.8% of holding+6.5%−6.9%37,089Form 4 · filed 5 days after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

85 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-08-07Cruz Christopher NestordirectorAward / grant24,854257,566Form 4
2026-08-05Cruz Christopher NestordirectorWithheld for tax14,073232,712Form 4
2026-06-15Disman NancydirectorAward / grant7,343197,987Form 4
2026-06-15Davis Karen RoterdirectorAward / grant5,10013,309Form 4
2026-06-15Halkyard Jonathan SdirectorAward / grant5,10021,621Form 4
2026-06-15Bakhshandehpour SamdirectorAward / grant5,10014,772Form 4
2026-06-15Dallaire SethdirectorAward / grant5,1008,084Form 4
2026-06-15Goldsmith-Grover SarahdirectorAward / grant5,10011,984Form 4
2026-06-05Lauber David TaylordirectorWithheld for tax5,193450,557Form 4
2026-03-17Isaacman JareddirectorGift1,60020,750,915Form 4
2026-03-02Lauber David TaylordirectorWithheld for tax12,302459,774Form 4
2026-03-02Disman NancydirectorWithheld for tax5,760190,644Form 4
2026-03-02Frankel JordanofficerWithheld for tax4,175279,844Form 4
2026-02-28Lauber David TaylordirectorWithheld for tax9,926472,076Form 4
2026-02-28Disman NancydirectorWithheld for tax4,266196,404Form 4
2026-02-28Frankel JordanofficerWithheld for tax3,199284,019Form 4
2026-02-28Whalen James J.officerWithheld for tax90266,936Form 4
2026-02-27Lauber David TaylordirectorAward / grant222,373482,002Form 4
2026-02-27Disman NancydirectorAward / grant76,015200,670Form 4
2026-02-27Frankel JordanofficerAward / grant62,514287,218Form 4
2026-02-27Cruz Christopher NestordirectorAward / grant17,137246,785Form 4
2026-02-27Whalen James J.officerAward / grant17,01867,838Form 4
2026-02-20Lauber David TaylordirectorWithheld for tax13,959259,629Form 4
2026-02-20Disman NancydirectorWithheld for tax5,765124,655Form 4
2026-02-20Whalen James J.officerWithheld for tax3,91650,820Form 4
2026-02-20Frankel JordanofficerWithheld for tax2,750224,704Form 4
2026-02-07Isaacman JareddirectorConversion19,801,0280Form 4
2026-02-07Isaacman JareddirectorAward / grant85,91185,911Form 4
2026-02-07Isaacman JareddirectorDisposition85,9110Form 4
2026-02-07Isaacman JareddirectorAward / grant423,296423,296Form 4
2026-02-07Isaacman JareddirectorAward / grant951,487951,487Form 4
2026-02-07Isaacman JareddirectorDisposition951,4870Form 4
2026-02-07Isaacman JareddirectorConversion19,801,02820,752,515Form 4
2026-02-07Isaacman JareddirectorDisposition19,801,0280Form 4
2026-02-07Isaacman JareddirectorAward / grant85,91185,911Form 4
2026-02-07Isaacman JareddirectorDisposition85,9110Form 4
2026-02-07Isaacman JareddirectorAward / grant951,487951,487Form 4
2026-02-07Isaacman JareddirectorDisposition951,4870Form 4
2026-02-07Isaacman JareddirectorConversion19,801,02820,752,515Form 4
2026-02-07Isaacman JareddirectorDisposition19,801,0280Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures

No congressional trades disclosed for this company.

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.