FOSLFossil Group, Inc.as of 2026-09-16
Horizon

Issued 2026-09-16 at $5.32 · now $5.32 (2026-09-16, +0.0% since)

Based on its own history, a month from the 2026-09-16 close, FOSL has typically landed between $3.77 and $7.50 — a range of −29.2% to +41.0% from the issuance price $5.32.

Range of outcomes in historically similar periods — not a price prediction. Ranges are scored publicly on /methodology.
  • Actual close
  • Typical path (median)
  • Middle 50% of outcomes
  • 90% range

4,672 overlapping 1 month windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-08-17 · basis climatology · forecast (batch). Probability up 53.9% (90% CI 51.7–56.1%, ≈1,408 obs).

The cone is anchored at the 2026-09-16 issuance close ($5.32) — the price the forecast resolves against on 2026-10-15, not the latest close. The drawn path shape is illustrative (bands widen with √t); every labeled number is real — the anchor, the scored batch p90/IQR endpoints, and the typical move.

Where FOSL has typically landed a month from the 2026-09-16 close of $5.32 — the range is history, not a prediction.

$3.77worst · -29.2%$7.5best · +41.0%
  • now $5.32 (+0.0%)
  • typicalThe typical outcome — half of similar past periods did better and half did worse (not an average, so a few wild periods don't skew it). $5.22 (-1.9%)
  • middle 50%The central range of outcomes — half of similar past periods landed inside it, a quarter finished above, a quarter below. $4.36–$6.07
  • 90% rangeA nine-in-ten range — in about nine of every ten similar past periods the outcome stayed within these bounds. $3.77–$7.5
Actual 1-month windows behind the coneiEvery overlapping 1-month window in this security's own price history was ranked by realized return; shown are the 3 worst and 3 best of 4,672 windows spanning 2008-01-02 to 2026-09-16. Not cherry-picked — these are the extremes of the full sample. Max drop / max rise are the deepest and highest points reached within each window. See /methodology.
StartReturnMax dropMax rise
3 worst
2020-02-14−50.8%−50.8%+0.0%
2012-05-02−49.2%−49.2%+0.0%
2020-06-08−49.0%−49.0%+0.0%
3 best
2020-05-07+136.8%−21.1%+136.8%
2020-11-11+122.6%+0.0%+122.6%
2020-11-06+118.4%+0.0%+118.4%

4,672 overlapping windows · 2008-01-02 – 2026-09-16 · not cherry-picked

Seasonality · by month iHow this security has tended to do in each calendar month historically — a frequency, never a prediction.

iFor each calendar month, the share of years this security closed higher than the month before, and the average month-over-month return, over ~19 years of its own price history. Cells are shaded by average return. This is historical frequency, not a prediction — no month is a signal.
Jan
44%
+2.5%
n=18
Feb
53%
+5.6%
n=19
Mar
26%
−6.5%
n=19
Apr
63%
+2.5%
n=19
May
37%
−3.9%
n=19
Jun
53%
+5.6%
n=19
Jul
53%
+0.6%
n=19
Aug
53%
+6.8%
n=19
Sep
37%
−2.8%
n=19
Oct
39%
−1.9%
n=18
Nov
56%
+4.4%
n=18
Dec
50%
+0.6%
n=18

Up-frequency and average month-over-month return · historical frequency, not a prediction

Reported insider & political trades

Every Form 4 the people closest to this company have filed with the SEC — plotted against the share price, aggregated by month, and shown with the gap between when each trade happened and when it was disclosed. A public record, not advice.

Share price & reported tradesMonthly open-market valueReporting lag — trade date to filing date2026-092026-082026-072026-062026-052026-042026-032026-022026-012025-122025-112025-102025-092025-08$6$22026-08-20: 1 insider purchase, $40K — Edwards Pamela J2026-08-18: 1 insider sale, $306K — Tifford Gail B2026-05-18: 1 insider purchase, $101K — Schoppert Wendy Lee2025-12-03: 1 insider purchase, $102K — Coulter Suzanne M2025-11-24: 1 insider purchase, $50K — Greben Randy J2025-11-21: 1 insider purchase, $24K — Edwards Pamela J2025-11-20: 2 insider purchases, $181K — Schoppert Wendy Lee, Tifford Gail B2025-11-18: 4 insider purchases, $460K — Fogliato Franco, Martin Joe T …2025-11: 8 open-market purchases, $714K2025-12: 1 open-market purchase, $102K2026-05: 1 open-market purchase, $101K2026-08: 1 open-market purchase, $40K2026-08: 1 open-market sale, $306K↑ buys↓ salesdirector Edwards Pamela J — Purchase on 2026-08-20, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Tifford Gail B — Sale on 2026-08-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Schoppert Wendy Lee — Purchase on 2026-05-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Coulter Suzanne M — Purchase on 2025-12-03, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Greben Randy J — Purchase on 2025-11-24, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Edwards Pamela J — Purchase on 2025-11-21, filed 3 days after the tradedirector Schoppert Wendy Lee — Purchase on 2025-11-20, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Tifford Gail B — Purchase on 2025-11-20, filed 4 days after the tradedirector Fogliato Franco — Purchase on 2025-11-18, filed 1 day after the tradeofficer Martin Joe T — Purchase on 2025-11-18, filed 2 days after the tradedirector Fogliato Franco — Purchase on 2025-11-18, filed 1 day after the tradedirector Fogliato Franco — Purchase on 2025-11-18, filed 1 day after the trade
DatePersonRoleActionShares @ priceValueOwnership Δvs S&P 1mvs S&P 6mOwned afterFiling
2026-08-20Edwards Pamela JdirectorPurchase7,208 @ $5.58$40K+16.7% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open50,251Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2026-08-18Tifford Gail BdirectorSale55,669 @ $5.49$306K−33.4% of holdingnot yet — horizon still opennot yet — horizon still open110,833Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2026-05-18Schoppert Wendy LeedirectorPurchase24,331 @ $4.14$101K+25.3% of holding+2.6%not yet — horizon still open120,625Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-12-03Coulter Suzanne MdirectorPurchase28,170 @ $3.62$102K+40.1% of holding+0.2%−2.9%98,457Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-24Greben Randy JofficerPurchase20,980 @ $2.38$50K+14.0% of holding+43.5%+65.8%170,980Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-21Edwards Pamela JdirectorPurchase10,000 @ $2.37$24K+405.5% of holding+49.7%+59.8%12,466Form 4 · filed 3 days after the trade
2025-11-20Schoppert Wendy LeedirectorPurchase41,322 @ $2.47$102K+1675.7% of holding+59.9%+68.0%43,788Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-20Tifford Gail BdirectorPurchase33,000 @ $2.40$79K+32.1% of holding+59.9%+68.0%135,925Form 4 · filed 4 days after the trade
2025-11-18Fogliato FrancodirectorPurchase100,000 @ $1.82$182K+5.4% of holding+83.8%+101.6%1,950,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-18Martin Joe TofficerPurchase56,180 @ $1.78$100K+43.4% of holding+83.8%+101.6%185,761Form 4 · filed 2 days after the trade
2025-11-18Fogliato FrancodirectorPurchase50,000 @ $1.80$90K+2.9% of holding+83.8%+101.6%1,800,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade
2025-11-18Fogliato FrancodirectorPurchase50,000 @ $1.75$88K+2.8% of holding+83.8%+101.6%1,850,000Form 4 · filed 1 day after the trade

The vs-S&P columns are a labeled look-back on what the stock did after each filing, measured against the index over the same window. Descriptive history, not a claim about the person or a reason to trade.

38 award / exercise / gift records — not counted as purchases

Awards, option exercises, gifts and tax-withholding disposals are shown separately and never counted as open-market purchases or sales — they carry no conviction information.

DatePersonRoleActionSharesOwned afterFiling
2026-04-15Greben Randy JofficerWithheld for tax33,869165,112Form 4
2026-04-15Martin Joe TofficerWithheld for tax21,716194,045Form 4
2026-04-15Lowenkron Melissa BofficerWithheld for tax11,64191,766Form 4
2026-04-15Martin Joe TofficerAward / grant150,000225,000Form 4
2026-04-15Lowenkron Melissa BofficerAward / grant150,000220,000Form 4
2026-04-15Greben Randy JofficerAward / grant225,000295,000Form 4
2026-04-15Fogliato FrancodirectorAward / grant750,000930,000Form 4
2026-03-16Schoppert Wendy LeedirectorAward / grant21,92996,294Form 4
2026-03-03Greben Randy JofficerOption exercise28,00176,999Form 4
2026-03-03Lowenkron Melissa BofficerOption exercise28,001103,407Form 4
2026-03-03Lowenkron Melissa BofficerOption exercise28,00176,999Form 4
2026-03-03Martin Joe TofficerOption exercise30,000215,761Form 4
2026-03-03Martin Joe TofficerOption exercise30,00082,500Form 4
2026-03-03Fogliato FrancodirectorOption exercise72,0002,022,000Form 4
2026-03-03Greben Randy JofficerOption exercise28,001198,981Form 4
2026-03-03Fogliato FrancodirectorOption exercise72,0002,022,000Form 4
2026-03-03Fogliato FrancodirectorOption exercise72,000198,000Form 4
2026-03-03Greben Randy JofficerOption exercise28,00176,999Form 4
2026-03-03Lowenkron Melissa BofficerOption exercise28,001103,407Form 4
2026-03-03Lowenkron Melissa BofficerOption exercise28,00176,999Form 4
2026-03-03Martin Joe TofficerOption exercise30,000215,761Form 4
2026-03-03Martin Joe TofficerOption exercise30,00082,500Form 4
2026-03-03Fogliato FrancodirectorOption exercise72,000198,000Form 4
2026-03-03Greben Randy JofficerOption exercise28,001198,981Form 4
2025-12-19Coulter Suzanne MdirectorAward / grant30,577129,034Form 4
2025-12-19Schoppert Wendy LeedirectorAward / grant30,57774,365Form 4
2025-12-19Edwards Pamela JdirectorAward / grant30,57743,043Form 4
2025-12-19Tifford Gail BdirectorAward / grant30,577166,502Form 4
2025-12-19Corrie Pamela BdirectorAward / grant30,57761,506Form 4
2025-12-19Rey MarcdirectorAward / grant30,577116,353Form 4
2025-12-19MANSELL KEVINdirectorAward / grant30,577125,536Form 4
2025-05-16Edwards Pamela JdirectorAward / grant2,4662,466Form 4
2025-05-16Schoppert Wendy LeedirectorAward / grant2,4662,466Form 4
2025-04-15Lowenkron Melissa BofficerWithheld for tax5,92979,360Form 4
2025-04-15Lowenkron Melissa BofficerAward / grant105,000105,000Form 4
2025-04-15Martin Joe TofficerAward / grant129,581129,581Form 4
2025-04-15Martin Joe TofficerAward / grant112,500112,500Form 4
2025-01-15Lowenkron Melissa BofficerWithheld for tax1,97783,312Form 4

Source: SEC Form 4 filings. Each row links to its original filing.

Across 2012–2021, stocks where a CEO, C-suite officer, or director had recently made an open-market common-stock purchase ran about +28 bp per month above the universe average (n=34,268 stock-weeks). A historical tendency, not a prediction.

Congressional disclosures iStock trades disclosed by members of Congress for this company, by the date they were filed.iDisclosures shown as facts. A purchase “cluster” (≥2 members of Congress filing a buy within 90 days) has historically preceded modestly higher forward returns — and it persisted out-of-sample, though it roughly halved after 2021 (see below). A descriptive historical tendency, not a signal to trade and not used in our forecast. See /methodology.

As of 2026-09-16 · point-in-time by filed date

Purchase clusters · 2015–2021 (dev)+45 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 59.3% vs 57.3% · n=31,607 cluster ticker-weeks
Purchase clusters · 2022–2026 (out-of-sample)+32 bp/mo vs baseline · up-rate 54.0% vs 53.3% · n=27,793

A cluster = ≥2 members of Congress filing a purchase within 90 days. The historical tilt persisted after 2021 but roughly halved (+45 → +32 bp/mo forward 1-month vs the S&P 500 weekly-grid baseline). Descriptive historical tendency — not a signal to trade, and not used in our forecast (audition-log 2026-07-27, recomputed 2026-09-08).

MemberChamberTypeFiledTradedSize
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2015-03-182015-03-01$15–50K
Lamar SmithHousesale2015-02-132015-01-27$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2014-03-132014-02-12$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2014-03-132014-02-12$1–15K
Mr. Lamar SmithHousepurchase2014-03-122014-02-10$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2014-01-162013-12-19$1–15K
Michael T. McCaulHousesale2014-01-162013-12-19$1–15K

Research tool, not investment advice — historical frequencies, not recommendations. A product of Marovel Technologies LLC. Full terms.